Etherdrifter

Currently tracking is almost entirely useless on PvE servers, and I don't think it would get much use on PvP ones either. A common complaint on steam was the lack of mobs on the new cluster, and in some areas on the old cluster they can be hard to find too so... Mechanic: "Flushed Out" Any animal with the "Flushed Out" modifier will be unable to breed, will despawn once there are no players within 70 tiles of them (or if they have been around for more than 30 mins). Each player may only have one "flushed out" creature in existance at a time (attempting to "hunt" for another creature while one is still around despawns the current one). "Flushed Out" creature corpses work a little different when butchering (butchered products go straight to a pile on the floor and the corpse vanishes); the corpses of hunted animals decay away in 5 minutes to avoid clutter. New actions: Right click a tile - > Tracking ->... Tracking 15 - Rat Hunt Usable once per (60 - (Tracking/2)) minutes, spawns a "flushed out giant rat" within (51-(Tracking/2)) tiles of the user (only functions off deed and will only spawn offdeed, the mob will remain stationary unless "spooked"). This can be hunted as per normal for food, and is particularly weak to hunting arrows (they inflict (tracking skill/10)x the normal damage). This rat is non-hostile and will not aggro (essentially an easy way for newer players to get a pelt); for free players the cooldown is always 1 hour to avoid server crashing spawn amounts. Tracking 30 - Pheasant hunt Usable once per (60 - (Tracking/3)) minutes, spawns a "flushed out pheasant" within (40-(Tracking/3)) tiles of the user (only functions off deed and will only spawn offdeed, the mob will remain stationary unless "spooked"). This can be hunted as per normal for food, and is particularly weak to hunting arrows (they inflict (tracking skill/10)x the normal damage) Tracking 60 - Deer Hunt Usable once per (60 - (Tracking/6)) minutes, spawns a "flushed out deer" within (60-(Tracking/6)) tiles of the user (only functions off deed and will only spawn offdeed, the mob will remain stationary unless "spooked"). This can be hunted as per normal for food/materials, and is particularly weak to hunting arrows (they inflict (tracking skill/10)x the normal damage)

You vastly underestimate how much I dislike certain people. Jokes aside, this kind of spawn mechanic is a little too haphazard; might make a nice mob for nights when all three moons align though...

So if there was a certain player I *really* hated, I could just walk down there, make a bunch of free alts, teleport them in one by one, log them out, and then wait for the werewolf nuke to strike?

I suggested something similar to this a while back (set classes with fixed skill combinations that have higher skill caps on free to play and give an affinity-like bonus for regular play). Honestly, wurm does have premium classes already, they're affinities that are randomly awarded/chosen. Sure, such a system means someone could create a pile of alts and never pay for the game. The thing is, that is a lot of work, switching boxes and generally suffering; a few will do it but the majority won't bother. 100% free players are not a waste of server space; indeed they create and bring content to an otherwise dead world. Wurm relies on its players, and I've seen non-preme newbies make some beautiful things. They definitely need more freedom if wurm is to ever grow again.

Somewhere, buried in the forums, is the written promise that WU will be supported as long as WO...

Probably the same people who are secretly benefitting from publishing population data. Hence why, I suppose, you are wearing that tinfoil hat. Ok, well deserved snipes aside; if you're a volunteer developer, and you respect the opinion of someone, you are much more likely to implement their suggestions (because you see them as intelligent on the matter). This doesn't mean "bad" (in that developer's opinion) suggestions get implemented (though many are badly implemented!), it simply means that if you put forward a good project it won't hurt if it's from your friends. Certain players are respected by the Devs, and those players have been consulted over things such as rules in the past. This isn't tinfoil hat territory, this is "go dig through the forum" territory. It this a bad thing? I suppose it depends if you're in the right clique!

Exactly what do I have to gain here by pointing out that the game is in decline? Fun fact, I actually teach data science at a university. Though, in my case the addiction is ginger tea.

Oh, it's mostly me just reporting population as time goes on, and using my professional skills to draw inferences from them as to what might be ailing wurm. Also, that wurm is ailing isn't an opinion, it is a cold hard fact if one defines the health of a game by its population and its stability. On that note, your semantics are a bit off there.... "Some of you don't like it when the server populations decline" would be a fact, (similarly from the other summary points); you are simply stating that others have said or expressed a thing. "The server population declining is a bad thing" is much closer to an opinion; though here we could argue some inference since the decline in population isn't the bad thing (it just is), it is the inferred closer of the game that follows logically from continued decline that most people take issue with. "the evidence is beginning to suggest that wurm's current free-to-play ("never-preme") offering isn't contributing noticeably to the games population" would be an inference, and a tentative one at that. It's not quite a hard observed fact ("we saw the lion eat dave") but it's certainly not just an opinion ("I think a crocodile ate dave"), it is an inference ("Dave was last seen around a lion and his remains show signs of lion tooth marks, so I think a lion ate dave"). Something lying between the two, one may call it an "inferred fact" or an "educated opinion" depending where on the continuum it lies.

@Kohle There is a mix of good points here with a few more controversial ones. I, too, did a long stint as a free player, and the game offers enjoyment in that form. Indeed, I am somewhat known for my "sabbaticals" (just letting my premium drop) and have written the guide on how to live as a free player. [Edit note for clarity: I only play one character, so when my premium drops that's all I have, I do not have other premium toons to hop to!] However, the evidence is beginning to suggest that wurm's current free-to-play ("never-preme") offering isn't contributing noticeably to the games population. It isn't conclusive (and is unlikely to be given the paucity of data available), though it would be the simplest explanation as to why a new mob 100% aimed at "never-preme" players has little, to no, statistically significant impact on population. This does suggest wurm's current free offering has a VERY narrow appeal in the long run. Alternative explanations could be poor marketing, player exchange (a lot of older players really hated the nerf the update brought), or even just seasonal variance cancelling out gains. Though, these seem less likely.

Bonus data - Medians I had a little free time so I did a median by month to get a rough feel for player medians over time. Why did I do this? Recently, the data is showing a lot of 0s due to reboots and downtime, and it may be impacting the means calculated, and I want to see if my calculated means and medians differ overly much. Old Cluster Month -> Median -> Mean -> Difference (mean-median) 2020-09 -> 195 -> 195.1306 -> 0.1305556 2020-10 -> 187 -> 186.4322 -> -0.5677852 2020-11 -> 205 -> 208.9039 -> 3.9038997 2020-12 -> 233 -> 233.1174 -> 0.1174089 2021-01 -> 228 -> 233.7301 -> 5.7300945 2021-02 -> 234 -> 236.0149 -> 2.0149031 2021-03 -> 219 -> 222.7224 -> 3.7223720 2021-04 -> 192 -> 197.0389 -> 5.0388889 2021-05 -> 201 -> 203.6142 -> 2.6142473 2021-06 -> 205 -> 207.1583 -> -2.1583333 New Cluster Month -> Median -> Mean -> Difference 2020-09 -> 1023.5 -> 1031.7528 -> 8.2527778 2020-10 -> 779.0 -> 769.6282 -> -9.3718121 2020-11 -> 667.0 -> 661.0864 -> -5.9136490 2020-12 -> 532.0 -> 532.9987 -> 0.9986505 2021-01 -> 472.0 -> 465.3914 -> -6.6086370 2021-02 -> 405.0 -> 407.3055 -> 2.3055142 2021-03 -> 347.5 -> 348.7668 -> 1.2668464 2021-04 -> 322.5 -> 327.1528 -> 4.6527778 2021-05 -> 289.0 -> 286.4274 -> -2.5725806 2021-06 -> 301.0 -> 294.0833 -> -6.9166667 In both cases, the pattern suggested by mean and median is the same same, which is a good indicator that the 0s are not impacting the mean overly much (indeed, on the old cluster something is pushing the mean up above the median, which may suggest that dragon hunts are more than compensating for the 0s). The values are also reasonably "close" together for both servers. Assuming an error margin of +/- 6 for the old cluster and +/-10 would be reasonable in light of the quick comparison above. In terms of modifying interpretations one could assert that (in the best case scenario), the old cluster's average population may have been static over the past 3 months. However, even if we interpret the gaps as generously as we can, the new cluster is definitely dropping.

Actually, a couple of years back I was travelling north for a rift and came across a returning player. Helped him get back to his old deed as he'd lost everything. We stumbled across a dragon, which turned out to be a friendly GM who polymorphed us both and helped us locate the spot. Honestly, the GMs of wurm do a lot of little things to make the game better; it'd be nice to give them a little more leeway for fun like that; newbie town attacks or even minor deed defence events. Or, you know, just scaring the crap out of random travellers as a dragon! Wurm is a game about community, and the GMs are part of that community.

First, an announcement; I will be moving to temporary accomodation for a new Job in September, and so I will not be able to collect data reliably for that month, and will be unable to report on it as often as I'd like for some time after due to the heavy workload this new post is likely to carry. If you'd be interested in taking over the data collection and reporting for a few months starting from September, please reach out to me and I'll be more than happy to get you set up with a script (as well as pass you a copy of the spreadsheet I use to keep track of things). Second, the data itself! Here it is, unfiltered since the last update Finally, on to the monthly report! This time, I have delayed partly because of work, but also because a large content update came out on May 26th, and I felt it might be more interesting to explore the two months one after another. The summary table can be seen below: OLD NEW TOTAL GROWTH OLD NEW Date O-Min O-Avg O-Max N-Min N-Avg M-Max Min Average Max O-Growth N-Growth T-Growth Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max 44317.00 142.00 206.67 308.00 231.00 325.79 427.00 142.00 266.23 427.00 30.54 22.75 26.65 44318.00 140.00 216.50 313.00 248.00 342.54 465.00 140.00 279.52 465.00 9.83 16.75 13.29 44319.00 106.00 189.25 277.00 203.00 299.00 401.00 106.00 244.13 401.00 -27.25 -43.54 -35.40 44320.00 125.00 199.79 310.00 188.00 296.50 421.00 125.00 248.15 421.00 10.54 -2.50 4.02 0.00 187.76 313.00 305.49 44321.00 121.00 192.71 295.00 191.00 291.29 381.00 121.00 242.00 381.00 -7.08 -5.21 -6.15 44322.00 1.00 180.08 265.00 0.00 267.04 361.00 1.00 223.56 361.00 -12.63 -24.25 -18.44 44323.00 124.00 201.79 294.00 201.00 299.54 399.00 124.00 250.67 399.00 21.71 32.50 27.10 44324.00 158.00 220.96 319.00 250.00 337.75 459.00 158.00 279.35 459.00 19.17 38.21 28.69 44325.00 148.00 222.42 319.00 219.00 315.08 425.00 148.00 268.75 425.00 1.46 -22.67 -10.60 44326.00 123.00 197.33 279.00 206.00 284.33 390.00 123.00 240.83 390.00 -25.08 -30.75 -27.92 44327.00 118.00 183.38 273.00 192.00 281.25 402.00 118.00 232.31 402.00 -13.96 -3.08 -8.52 1.00 199.81 319.00 296.61 44328.00 121.00 179.46 257.00 191.00 267.13 353.00 121.00 223.29 353.00 -3.92 -14.13 -9.02 44329.00 114.00 185.38 272.00 171.00 255.13 355.00 114.00 220.25 355.00 5.92 -12.00 -3.04 44330.00 17.00 172.71 238.00 54.00 250.42 370.00 17.00 211.56 370.00 -12.67 -4.71 -8.69 44331.00 147.00 230.17 397.00 192.00 287.46 398.00 147.00 258.81 398.00 57.46 37.04 47.25 44332.00 155.00 231.04 332.00 208.00 306.21 414.00 155.00 268.63 414.00 0.88 18.75 9.81 44333.00 118.00 202.92 290.00 178.00 273.88 382.00 118.00 238.40 382.00 -28.13 -32.33 -30.23 44334.00 136.00 190.75 273.00 192.00 277.13 363.00 136.00 233.94 363.00 -12.17 3.25 -4.46 17.00 198.92 397.00 273.90 44335.00 126.00 191.96 259.00 194.00 277.79 363.00 126.00 234.88 363.00 1.21 0.67 0.94 44336.00 25.00 189.63 249.00 60.00 255.50 348.00 25.00 222.56 348.00 -2.33 -22.29 -12.31 44337.00 148.00 194.25 261.00 184.00 267.25 353.00 148.00 230.75 353.00 4.63 11.75 8.19 44338.00 151.00 237.63 349.00 177.00 291.88 394.00 151.00 264.75 394.00 43.38 24.63 34.00 44339.00 179.00 247.04 320.00 203.00 308.88 400.00 179.00 277.96 400.00 9.42 17.00 13.21 44340.00 147.00 203.17 268.00 169.00 264.08 375.00 147.00 233.63 375.00 -43.88 -44.79 -44.33 44341.00 128.00 206.75 317.00 195.00 277.54 357.00 128.00 242.15 357.00 3.58 13.46 8.52 25.00 210.06 349.00 277.56 44342.00 1.00 181.33 300.00 0.00 242.00 373.00 1.00 211.67 373.00 -25.42 -35.54 -30.48 44343.00 0.00 196.88 312.00 0.00 257.75 362.00 0.00 227.31 362.00 15.54 15.75 15.65 44344.00 0.00 187.63 291.00 0.00 245.21 400.00 0.00 216.42 400.00 -9.25 -12.54 -10.90 44345.00 0.00 219.42 341.00 0.00 296.75 412.00 0.00 258.08 412.00 31.79 51.54 41.67 44346.00 153.00 232.13 334.00 226.00 323.96 422.00 153.00 278.04 422.00 12.71 27.21 19.96 44347.00 141.00 220.96 317.00 191.00 313.21 423.00 141.00 267.08 423.00 -11.17 -10.75 -10.96 Month AVG 203.61 490.04 286.43 44348.00 115.00 205.67 304.00 188.00 292.21 385.00 115.00 248.94 385.00 -15.29 -21.00 -18.15 0.00 206.29 341.00 281.58 44349.00 129.00 197.54 301.00 185.00 284.21 373.00 129.00 240.88 373.00 -8.13 -8.00 -8.06 44350.00 122.00 205.75 313.00 137.00 278.46 378.00 122.00 242.10 378.00 8.21 -5.75 1.23 44351.00 147.00 222.63 296.00 194.00 296.29 428.00 147.00 259.46 428.00 16.88 17.83 17.35 44352.00 147.00 241.88 321.00 230.00 319.75 410.00 147.00 280.81 410.00 19.25 23.46 21.35 44353.00 163.00 242.67 346.00 224.00 322.67 435.00 163.00 282.67 435.00 0.79 2.92 1.85 44354.00 117.00 193.58 271.00 185.00 303.33 434.00 117.00 248.46 434.00 -49.08 -19.33 -34.21 44355.00 113.00 190.83 306.00 179.00 291.54 405.00 113.00 241.19 405.00 -2.75 -11.79 -7.27 115.00 213.55 346.00 299.46 44356.00 128.00 198.54 302.00 187.00 293.29 379.00 128.00 245.92 379.00 7.71 1.75 4.73 44357.00 95.00 175.67 238.00 130.00 272.42 381.00 95.00 224.04 381.00 -22.88 -20.88 -21.88 44358.00 132.00 187.88 267.00 177.00 269.13 355.00 132.00 228.50 355.00 12.21 -3.29 4.46 44359.00 158.00 230.96 339.00 227.00 299.25 371.00 158.00 265.10 371.00 43.08 30.13 36.60 44360.00 171.00 253.33 359.00 208.00 303.67 419.00 171.00 278.50 419.00 22.38 4.42 13.40 44361.00 133.00 200.75 270.00 234.00 306.54 402.00 133.00 253.65 402.00 -52.58 2.88 -24.85 44362.00 130.00 193.58 272.00 199.00 285.21 371.00 130.00 239.40 371.00 -7.17 -21.33 -14.25 95.00 205.82 359.00 289.93 44363.00 114.00 184.50 263.00 198.00 277.75 382.00 114.00 231.13 382.00 -9.08 -7.46 -8.27 44364.00 0.00 181.79 265.00 0.00 265.58 350.00 0.00 223.69 350.00 -2.71 -12.17 -7.44 44365.00 129.00 188.08 276.00 202.00 287.63 384.00 129.00 237.85 384.00 6.29 22.04 14.17 44366.00 163.00 234.42 387.00 211.00 302.92 415.00 163.00 268.67 415.00 46.33 15.29 30.81 44367.00 162.00 248.04 431.00 226.00 315.25 412.00 162.00 281.65 431.00 13.63 12.33 12.98 44368.00 140.00 200.67 276.00 203.00 294.58 398.00 140.00 247.63 398.00 -47.38 -20.67 -34.02 44369.00 142.00 203.79 291.00 214.00 301.88 418.00 142.00 252.83 418.00 3.13 7.29 5.21 0.00 205.90 431.00 292.23 44370.00 130.00 199.83 278.00 207.00 288.08 362.00 130.00 243.96 362.00 -3.96 -13.79 -8.88 44371.00 0.00 177.33 247.00 0.00 284.67 394.00 0.00 231.00 394.00 -22.50 -3.42 -12.96 44372.00 137.00 194.42 258.00 209.00 301.17 392.00 137.00 247.79 392.00 17.08 16.50 16.79 44373.00 138.00 236.21 347.00 236.00 314.46 425.00 138.00 275.33 425.00 41.79 13.29 27.54 44374.00 169.00 242.29 358.00 216.00 328.83 429.00 169.00 285.56 429.00 6.08 14.38 10.23 44375.00 122.00 193.63 281.00 174.00 280.25 396.00 122.00 236.94 396.00 -48.67 -48.58 -48.63 44376.00 125.00 197.54 278.00 175.00 277.71 369.00 125.00 237.63 369.00 3.92 -2.54 0.69 0.00 205.89 358.00 296.45 44377.00 113.00 190.96 279.00 191.00 283.79 376.00 113.00 237.38 376.00 -6.58 6.08 -0.25 Month AVG 207.16 501.24 294.08 In May we saw the old cluster amble from an average of 197 to an average of 203; not particularly noteworthy and somewhat in-keeping with the rough average of 200 players we've seen it bobbing around over the last few months. The new cluster, however, saw a disastrous drop from 327 all the way down to 286; indicating that while the rate of decline for the new cluster is slowing down, it hasn't stabilised. This is fairly standard news now, but here is something interesting: Weekly Average on Old Cluster Week before critter update: 198 Week of critter update: 210 Week after critter update: 206 Weekly Average on New Cluster Week before critter update: 278 Week of critter update: 282 Week after critter update: 299 As you can see, the new update didn't impact the old cluster in any statistically significant way; no more than the old cluster's regular weekly "heartbeat" of roughly +/-5%). However, then we got something very unusual, the next 3 weeks on the old cluster registered an average of 206 (EVERY week). This is extremely unusual, and definitely indicates the update had SOME impact. The new cluster definitely saw some growth. Rising up to 299 the week after the update, before dropping and then rising (289, 292, 296). This is VERY interesting, and might indicate that the new cluster's decline may have slowed overall. Looking longer term, the old cluster rose to a monthly average of 207, and the new cluster also rose with it to 294. Overall, it is clear that the content update had some impact, very minor for the old cluster, but somewhat larger for the new cluster. There are several possible reasons for this, including the unpopularity of the update among older players (generally represented by the forum), which may be why the old cluster hasn't seen as much impact. April--June is hard to predict, as some years it has dropped, in others it has risen. However, compared to 2020 (huge drop, which might be COVID linked?), we may be tempted to suggest that this year things have fared better. However, this is not the conclusion we draw. Rather, we would suggest that the animal update has had, at best, a minor impact on server population and has somewhat flopped, leading to little/no real impact a month later on average player numbers. Inference Free Players Now, we enter the world of inference; specifically "free players"; do note that this section is largely the authors interpretation of the data and should be taken with a large block of salt. The donkey was a feature primarily aimed at free (never premium) players. How can we suggest this particular group? We suggest it because donkeys are universally worse than horses when found in the wild, and players who have been premium before would likely still use horses as 21 body control is (likely) a skill many pursue when they first premium. This skill is retained upon de-premiuming. What this could be suggesting (the author certainly is!) is that wurm's "non-premium" playerbase is very small, to the point it has little to no real impact on the old cluster and only a minor one upon the new cluster. This suggests that Wurm's free to play offering is somewhat anemic, and thus in need of solid and meaningful expansion. While this has loudly been debated upon the forums, this is perhaps the first data-backed suggestion of this defect. While it is not conclusive evidence, it certainly merits deeper investigation upon this matter.

I'd find it useful since I only get to play for any length of time on weekends.

My yearly bump for this, mostly because it'd be nice to have.

Time for a bump here I think... Magic on wurm really does need a bit of a boost for those of us who actually play priests vs those who have a genesis bot!

Time for a bump here I think...

@Archaed@Ekcin I'll just agree to disagree with you both. Neither of you has put forth any rebuttle worth engaging with. Enjoy your Sundays!

I think the issue everyone has isn't that "I should be rewarded for someone else's hard work", it is that: (1). "The same groups so often find uniques that are supposed to be randomly spawned that the probability they're not gaming the system in some way is insanely low" (2). "Some members of these groups have been involved with ingame rule development governing uniques that disrupts the game for anyone else nearby" (3). "Drake/scale is the only vE endgame content, and it is impossible to realistically take part in, even if you have sunk thousands of hours into the game". (4). "This system has been identified as garbage by tens, if not hundreds, of players over the years" (5). "Players who put in a lot of hard work (more so than private slaying groups) by making public slayings get a lower reward" Overall... (3) and (5) demand a solution, (1) and (2) certainly warrant investigation and (4) has definitely had an impact on player attrition.

Be nice if this went to the Twitter so I could scrape it and then prove or disprove a few things.

Good to know some players are consulted before random rules are implemented.

+1 to more papering over the cracks for an awful system. No matter how ill conceived they are, the rules are the rules. Oh and, while we're at it, if a slaying happens and your deed is in local (but you are not allowed to be there) the GMs should award you a day of premium time and sleep bonus to make up for the lost playtime (it's only fair) Diverted travellers should be given either a free teleport to their destination or a day's premium time and the SB if they have to log off. That way, we're sorting out some other issues too!

Another alternative is to let players drag them while riding a critter for a speed penalty.

"And in todays news, we saw the theft of sprouts at 8% of our stock, an all time low compared to last year's 11% of our stock!" - So which of these scenarios is it? (a) "And in todays news, the theft of sprouts surpassed 10,000 stolen; an all time high compared to last year's theft of 9000 sprouts!" (b) "And in todays news, the theft of sprouts surpassed 9,000 stolen; an all time low compared to last year's theft of 10,000 sprouts!" The distinction between the two is important; and really express nothing about the population as a whole (if your game population has increased, a loss of 8% could be terrible, but if your population has decreased then the loss of 8% is the least of your worries!). Percentages can be VERY misleading; they may be facts, but they're a very "PR" (a very polite term for "strategic lying") way of expressing them. They're strategically very viable, but in terms of "good statistics" they're rather a "what not to do" guide.

Well, the best solution might be hitching the critters to the small cart, then right clicking to "lead" the small cart; with Min(Player speed, cart speed) being chosen as the speed so that this dosn't end up overpowered, but acts as a nice earlygame option for players dragging ore from a mine to their forge.

If someone submitted that for an exam on a module I was teaching, I'd have serious concerns about their ability to continue with the course. Most likely, I'd raise them as "red, in danger of failing". Actually, you know what, I'm going to use that as an example of "how to fail this course" with my students.