joedobo

1/3600 chance per a second is on average once an hour. But what is enabled once an hour is at the least a 50% dice roll. The vast majority of WU code is still valid. Very little has changed since it was stop being updated. Further, Wurm has always resisted to doing massive code rewrites. I can use it as a based to come up with a test. It also just happens to match what people like Oblivion have said. Although, it's possible OR wrote what was in that guide based on WU code.

The coin system doesn't drop caskets. Premium players have increased odds to get supreme and fanatics. They would be more likely to get the guaranteed casket levels from those rarities. I don't know if free to play or lapsed premium toons are nerfed in other ways.

I got the 50% from looking at WU code. There is a 1/3600 chance a second to make a window. If you start an action inside that window wurm does up to three rolls for rarity. The most likely is the last at 50% chance for a rare. I also remember people trying to say we get one rare an hour and I knew the code didn't match that, it's one 50% roll for an item of at least rare state an hour. The potential problem I'm not sure about is whether I can use the 50% to measure the 1/3600. There is a something in statistics about related variables explaining each other that I don't remember.

I'm guessing your operating on the assumption that you didn't miss any windows, or had any failures on creation? I'd say it's clearly not 50%. I wouldn't say that it's 27-28 because too much we don't see. I can't see a way to measure the 1/3600 and this could be what Lethyria is trying to explain. For all we know it still could be 50% but wurm put in a nerf to penalize players who chain spam certain items. What would happen if we stagged creation of items? Say make these: pickaxe head, a horse shoe, and axe head, large nail, small nail. Maybe even randomize their order. note, this is for https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html and "Find Out the Margin of Error".

Other then I didn't say "on average there is a 50% per hour to make a rare" I don't see what you're saying. Yes, one a second there is that chance to make a window. And there are 3600 seconds in an hour. If the window succeeds it has another 50% at the minimum to make a rare (and even lower chances for suprmeme and fanstatic)

I looked here https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html to get a better idea. if I'm reading it right, in order for me to have enough samples to test if it's a 50% per hour I'd need 385 hours. Testing if it's one 50% chance per an hour. That is simply not going to happen. I'll just have to make do with less than optimal where I simplify it down to a coin flip experiment and see how likely the outcome is.

unfortunately, I need to simplify the analysis down to something like the coin flip. Ideally, I would define an experiment as 100 hours and repeat this 1000 times. For each 100-hour experiment graph it's frequency. What does the final 1000 experiments look like? But that is just too hard to do. Maybe someone here with better statistics can advise of the minimum sample size assuming the experiment has 10 rolls (ie. 10 coin flips). It is called in BehaviourDispatcher.action(). I'm pretty sure everything that the player does eventually go through this.

Example using coin flips: https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability 10 flips at most 0 heads is about 1:2400 chance. It's very close to that 3 SD thing above. 10 hours of crafting where each hour is a 50% chance to get rare item is the same probability as the coin flip. I agree that if I did 50 hours and got no rare items it would be bad. That is fifty coin-flips and at most 0 heads. lol.....Probability 1 in 1,125,899,906,842,624. That would be broken. I intend to use event log and python code to verify I didn't miss any windows. After that it's counting how many rare items made. Assuming I can verity no windows are missed it's just a question of how many hours of creating and how many rare items made.

Thanks, Lovelie. I read that thread and it does seem Davih knows what person's talking about. Unfortunately, it all summarizes to "I've made hundreds of rare items with creation spamming so I know what I'm taking about". And the person probably does. But it doesn't help me in designing my experiment. I intend to provide all that information here if possible. The needed parts of the picture are: experiment design, raw data, math analysis of data, and a conclusion.

I'm not sure what you mean Archaed. I've pretty much forgotten statistics. I want to keep this simple. I want to test if creation spamming for rare has changed since WU code.

I'd like to test creation spamming for rarity. But I'm not sure of the math part to know how long I need to do it to get a complete picture. I'll use log files to verify if I missed any windows. I'll focus on rare item (the blue one). The low odds for supreme and fantastic need too large of a sample size to explain. I'll only use one toon. Trying to spam create on many toons over many hours will aggravate me too much. I'm going to operate on the assumption that once an hour there is a 50% to get a rare. You can check this by looking at Player.getRarity() in WU code. I'll likely be making horseshoes and planks (I want a supreme ropetool). From a math perspective this is a 50% of not getting a rare. I'll use a normal curve for probability math and only one tail end. I used https://mathsolver.microsoft.com/en How many consecutive failures would be 2.1% or 2 SD? 0.5^(X)=0.021; X = 5.573466862 How many consecutive failures would be 0.1% or 3 SD? 0.5^(X)=0.001; X = 9.965784285 Is this line of thought right? Am I on the right track with this? It seems to me that the least amount of time for testing is 10 hours (again I'm only using one toon).

I've never understood why folks never point out that you can easily equip or remove all your armor. To remove do: r-click on body icon in the paper doll>choose unequip all. You can keep your armor inside a backpack or an inventory group. To equip this armor, use shift select to select it all and drag it all to paper doll to equip. I only constantly wear armor if I'm going afk. Otherwise, I take it on and off. iirc, someone pointing out that plate takes the most damage compared to other armors. You end up spending more of your time maintaining it. plate: 1. It's heavy in inventory, even when it's unequipped. 2. If you're wearing it your foot speed is slow. we can't do a lot of working tasks on a horse after all. 3. It takes far more damage compared to other armors and results in more time spent maintaining it. 4. DR is good is most cases. But in case of troll bashing, the one scenario that really matters in wurm, it's average at best. I'm not sure if I'll go with studded or steel chain. edit: This site is better than the bad wiki: https://warlander.github.io/Wurm-Toolbox/#armor-calc

I would love a proper global price history tool. I not talking about a global auction. While I support global auction accessed through a mailbox, I don't think WO will do that. But a global price index history might be more palatable. As for limiting players ability to pay more than historical prices for something, I don't see that happening. On possible outcome from such a move a could be players stop making auction all together and post "Make your best Offer!" posts.

The topographical lines are correct. They can look different because they are a smaller scale on the clue-map then the map dump. I'd guess on the map dump it's around 250-dirts per a line of elevational change. Well on the clue maps I'd guess it's 50 or 100-dirts elevational change per a line. This finer detail may show topography lines that aren't on the map dumps. The game draws maps by fetching live data of an area and then obscuring it. I would say it obscures it too much. Wurm has no problem with use looking up tower/shrines/collosus/archeology dead-deed location on community map. I don't see it hurting to give players the option to use the standard maps dump. keep using obscured but let players switch to the un-obscure if they want too.

From WU it should try to make trees anywhere in a 10-tile radius out from the sprouting tree. Even before we had WU I remember it being a 10-tile radius. But I've heard from others who strong say it's a different value and that they have tested to verify (I've never seen said tests). It's very possible WO has some variation slightly different then WU. WU code TilePoller.checkForTreeSprout() ... final int newtilex = tilex - 10 + Server.rand.nextInt(21); final int newtiley = tiley - 10 + Server.rand.nextInt(21); ... do a bunch of checks to see if a new tree should be created at newtilex, newtiley

mission structure, spirit gate Souls Trail http://xanadu.yaga.host/#5848,2632

Never use it other than sell all the caskets I get. Why? 1. It feels too much like a gambling loot crate system to me. I'm all about working hard and know exactly what the outcome will be. At every step this treasure map system is asking "How lucky are you!" 2. The system uses player skills. You as a player have to know where stuff is at (towers, colossus, archeology sites, etc....) or have the ability to decipher the maps. I like character skill base things. 3. The main loot I want from this is skill imbue-potions and a supreme+ bone. I'm certain the drop rates for those things are ridiculously small. The upkeep tokens and maybe those special containers might be nice. But this all plays into #1.

No one cares about this novice clue so I'm closing it. I don't blame them; it being regionally bound to open location and the lacking novice loot. I'd like to sell the novice treasure clue form my "Hunting for Clues" journal reward. * I have NOT claimed it yet. * I live at L23 on Xanadu. This location is where I'll claim it. * As soon as I claim it the 24hr timer starts timing down. You don't have to do the treasure clue in 24 hours but there is that journal achievement for doing this. I have no idea what this is worth which is why I didn't put a price on it. Please make offers. Please give price check advise if you wish.

SOLD. Thank you, private buyer. WTS rare statue of rift beast fragment [1/46] 7s Picture of fragment: https://i.imgur.com/e1dYNqs.png

oh my! This QOL change is better than all that other stuff in this patch combined! Curious about -5 house math. a 10x7 requires 104 Carp, so is it now 99?

Protected loss of imbue power/enchant power. For me, a supreme is required for an imbued item.

Base speed would be what I said. Those speed enchants make actions faster. They would function just like they currently do. Although, it would be counterproductive to choose to train slowly and then use speed tool.

apparently Tpikol doesn't have your experience. 1:2 is significantly more common than 1:25. Although, I recognize you think the drop rate is fine. I hope that you can see that I have a different opinion.

I'm curious why, wurm, you would make it difficult to test? Sure, it's easier then waiting for a lucky MOI. But would it hurt to make them supper common, say 1:2?

Please give us a convenient way to achieve 30 second action timers. And achieve 15 second action timers for sweet spotting. There have been other suggestions about this subject before because it useful and desired by players to train with longer timers. I'd like to see a simple and convenient way to do this. It just makes sense that a person could choose to go slow and careful with the goal of learning more. If I did this, I'd add simple commands to enable various modes. /trainmostcarefullly -> All crafting action have a base 30 second action time. /traincarefully -> All crafting action have a base 15 second action time. This is intended for sweet spotting. /trainnormal -> Craft just like it is now. /trainrecklessly -> I'm not sure about this one but it sounded cool to craft faster than normal but at the cost of higher failure rates and lower creation ql.