joedobo

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joedobo last won the day on February 19 2015

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  1. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    Failures could completely be removed from the game in all aspects and the result could be basically the same as it is now. --If you have a 50% chance to make a plank the creation process just take 2x longer and is a 100% success. Thier needs to be compensation for the skill rolls here. --For improving they could remove failures and damaging items and instead simply either decrease quality gain or increase action timer. --oh, enchanting. Although, even this one may work out too. We'd have to have a system that would say for x skill and y power would take appropriate favor and time. Then the priest would need to spend a lot of action-time and some way of contributing small amounts of favor over time into the project. The final result would be whatever power cast the priest wanted. And before someone complains, keep in mind a priest might have to spend thousands if not tens of thousands of favor and days of action time to get 90+ power spells at low skill levels. In the case of pruning, it seems it was an oversite by the devs missing the fact there their better-skill-gain system also meant players could never achieve a 100% scenario. A simple fix might be to add a different system to determine a failure. Perhaps, forestry skill is your success chance, at 95 skill you'd on average succeed 95% of the time. And still keep using the skill gain way.
  2. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    sorry I'm confusing things jumping between my need for finding an approach to make a useful skill gain calculator tool and the idea of understanding why wurm thought the bounding re-roll approach was a good idea.
  3. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    Again, K-S test for normality says it's not normal (even a mean of 0 returns a super small K-S pValue). It may look kinda normal but its not "kinda-enough". The only relevant issue here is if we are using stats algorithms that assume the data is normal to test or predict outcomes it kinda falls apart if the data isn't actually normal. And for my purposes, it would need to always be normal, not just some of the time. Of note, who you are or what piece of payer you hold doesn't suddenly make something right. Here is what I did. I may have made a mistake in its use or interpretation. But like I said, not normal enough to pass K-S test for normality. In it, rollGaussian is a copy of the method form WU. All those math class objects are from org.apache.commons.math3 library. doublesOriginal = Arrays.stream(doublesOriginal) .map(value -> rollGaussian(skill, difficulty)) .toArray(); DescriptiveStatistics descriptiveStatistics = new DescriptiveStatistics(); Arrays.stream(doublesOriginal).forEach(descriptiveStatistics::addValue); double mean = descriptiveStatistics.getMean(); double sd = descriptiveStatistics.getStandardDeviation(); NormalDistribution normalDistribution = new NormalDistribution(descriptiveStatistics.getMean(), descriptiveStatistics.getStandardDeviation()); KolmogorovSmirnovTest kolmogorovSmirnovTest = new KolmogorovSmirnovTest(); double pValue = kolmogorovSmirnovTest.kolmogorovSmirnovTest(normalDistribution, doublesOriginal);
  4. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    @Roccandil I was hoping more people would chime in on the pruning thing. My best guess is Rolf (back in the day when he was doing more) has always gone the extra mile to remove 100% chance outcomes or add in diminishing returns style outcomes. If we stopped pruning failures a large share of outcomes when skills hit 90+ would produce mostly 100 ql outcomes.
  5. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    10 mil samples, 50 skill, and 30 difficulty. In addition to the Gaussian roll code from WU lets make another algorithm that doesn't do the bounding rerolling stuff. And in summary, WU roll Gaussian bounding code fails a K-S test for normality. private static double rollGaussian1(double skill, double difficulty) { double slide = (FastMath.pow(skill, 3) - FastMath.pow(difficulty, 3)) / 50000.0 + (skill - difficulty); double w = 30.0 - FastMath.abs(skill - difficulty) / 4.0; double result; return random.nextGaussian() * (w + FastMath.abs(slide) / 6.0) + slide; } Here is math using WU's guassian roll skill gain(0-40): %52.1E0 | 100+: %0E0 | failure(-100 - 0): %22.5E0 | <-100: %0E0 K-S test Pvalue: 3.33E-11 | mean: 20.996105 | SD: 27.747330 PDF function for skill gain: 5.29E-1 ---------------------------------- Here is math uses that above modified roll skill gain(0-40): %51.2E0 | 100+: %32.3E-2 | failure(-100 - 0): %22.2E0 | <-100: %9E-4 K-S test Pvalue: 0.797670 | mean: 21.958174 | SD: 28.659330 PDF function for skill gain: 5.14E-1 If we do this same experiment but instead with 95 skill and 10 difficulty it becomes clear that WU's bounding Gaussian roll doesn't always produce normal distributions. skill gain(0-40): %1.83E0 | 100+: %0E0 | failure(<0): %87.7E-4 | <-100: %0E0 K-S test Pvalue: 1.2E-9 | mean: 78.965237 | SD: 15.057343 PDF function for skill gain: 4.83E-3 ---------------------------------- skill gain(0-40): %79.2E-2 | 100+: %53E0 | failure(<0): %34.3E-4 | <-100: %0E0 K-S test Pvalue: 0.900393 | mean: 102.117265 | SD: 25.771359 PDF function for skill gain: 7.93E-3 This normality stuff is important to me because it decides on whether my skill calculator tool can use stream or cumulative based math instead of generating giant random samples.
  6. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    94 forestry and 92 ql sickle nets out to about 95 skill and 84 difficulties (you're likely seeing a 70 skill bonus on average). That would make something like this: skill gain(0-40): %49.9E0, failure(<0): %29.8E0, 90+: %26E-2 Seems like it's working exactly as it was intended. Although, I think I get where folks are complaining. Wurm wanted to try a different skill function to make it easier to skill up but unfortunately, they also made it near impossible to get 100% success at high levels.
  7. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    This is the perfect example of why I wanted to avoid plotting things. It's just extra info that confuses people. I think we need a tool that isn't something that appears math-heavy or complicated WU code mining. Oh, and to further complicate with forestry-related stuff is that skill bonus for this area is huge. For most things skill bonus of 10 would be very lucky. With forestry, and if you got a high sickle skill, one could easily cap the bonus at 70. In general, as far I can tell anyway, assuming your sickle skill is about equal to your forestry skill you'd want a sickle that is 5 ql points less then forestry skill. (1 difficulty and sickle skill roll will about come out on average to a power equal to the sickle skill. So if your sickle skill is equal to forestry then the bonus should equal foresty on average and it's hard capped at 70.)
  8. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    Do we really need to plot them? Wouldn't it be just as good to count the number of outcomes that are in the sweet spot? for 99 skill and 10 difficulty and ran through the same code WU uses. plot: numeric: skill gain tick chance: 0.011323
  9. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    quick question about this. From what I can tell the behavior of bounding the rolls to -100 < x < 100 causes distributions that aren't normal. I was hoping to do probability density functions but i"m not sure if they apply when I can't verify the distribution fits a normal curve. If this is the case isn't the best way to do a skill gain style calculator to just call the gaussian roll method seen in WU a bunch of time and count the frequency of roll where 0 < x <= 40?
  10. New archaeology stuff

    From the picture of anniversary item, in an email advertisement, I see 14 different items in total and here they are: 2017: Saddle sacks 2016: Picnic basket 2015: Yule reindeer 2015: Valentines pottery 2014: Yule goat 2013: Snow lantern 2012: Soft cap 2011: Garden gnome (red hat) 2010: Fireworks Garden gnome (green hat). Think people are calling it a bloody gnome. Troll mask Mask of the rebirth Knapsack An unknown item that looks kinda like the saddle sack except I'm pretty sure it's not. I'd guess it's a bag of keeping. Of course, just because I don't see it in the email picture doesn't mean it's not another option.
  11. Updated the OP with this. tell me if there are inaccuracies. ----SUMMARY----- Use your trowel to investigate any tile. A higher quality trowel will give you more frequent success and faster times. Action speed + enchants will speed things up too. It doesn't matter what tile you investigate. As far as your chance of getting a fragment goes it's all the same. On your deed, off-deed, abandon deed area, dirt, road, grass, etc; it's all the same. For every fragment found there is 1/15 chance it's the anniversary fragment. A success on a 1/15 roll will put this green text message in the event window: "[17:35:34] You also find another fragment that looks a bit different." Anniversary fragments are label as "unidentified special fragment". Use your chisel and/or metal brush on the unidentified fragments in order to identify them. Using the tool the game asks you to use has a lower difficulty and this will succeed more often. Tho, you can use whatever tool you want, but the wrong tool makes it more difficult. Take note that you can't actually destroy the fragment even know the failure event message hints to the contrary. Combine your 3 fragments. If you get a fragment of item rarity it can make a rare anniversary gift. Lastly, expect it to take at least a half-hour to find your fragments and another half hour or less to identify them if you have low archaeology skill.
  12. thanks all. dang, 15-second action time and a very low success rate at my 1 skill...oh well.
  13. what kind of tiles: your own deed, own perimeter, off-deed land, another's deed/perimeter, an area that looks like it used to be a deed? I'm assuming the highest possible quality tool and if you got it some action speed enchant is best. I'd prefer to just go do this on my own deed but I have a suspicion that isn't the fastest.
  14. I think a little how-to on what you need to do to get your 3 fragments would be nice. I've never used the archeology system before and I don't really want to spend a bunch of time figuring how to go about this. I can't be the only player in this position. Can any of you knowledgeable folks give use a quick step-by-step guide? Please be specific, Thank you in advance. ----SUMMARY----- Use your trowel to investigate any tile. A higher quality trowel will give you more frequent success and faster times. Action speed + enchants will speed things up too. It doesn't matter what tile you investigate. As far as your chance of getting a fragment goes it's all the same. On your deed, off-deed, abandon deed area, dirt, road, grass, etc; it's all the same. For every fragment found there is 1/15 chance it's the anniversary fragment. A success on a 1/15 roll will put this green text message in the event window: "[17:35:34] You also find another fragment that looks a bit different." Anniversary fragments are label as "unidentified special fragment". Use your chisel and/or metal brush on the unidentified fragments in order to identify them. Using the tool the game asks you to use has a lower difficulty and this will succeed more often. Tho, you can use whatever tool you want, but the wrong tool makes it more difficult. Take note that you can't actually destroy the fragment even know the failure event message hints to the contrary. Combine your 3 fragments. If you get a fragment of item rarity it can make a rare anniversary gift. Lastly, expect it to take at least a half-hour to find your fragments and another half hour or less to identify them if you have low archaeology skill.
  15. The Gaussian Roll - Mathematical Analysis

    A nicely formatted and nonmath mumbo-jumbo version doesn't exist in-game, and that is something really hope gets added someday (no I'm not making a suggestion, no point in my asking Wurm devs for anything). I'd be willing to share mine but I'd have to find a good way to do it as letting hundreds of people mess with my google sheet doesn't work well...guess I could make a copy of it, locke it up, and post a like so folks can download it.