Alendhor

Crafting success rate issue

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Correction:

After mixing many more batches of concrete I realized that I made an error by using the total amount of lye used in my calculations. Since concrete is made using 1.5 lye per action, the maximum amount of concrete which can be made from a small barrel of lye is 30. I've changed the percentage amounts to reflect this fact. Substituting a maximum total of 30 concrete per small barrel now indicates that the success rate is higher (at least in this instance) than the Chance percentage listed in the crafting window. I apologize for any confusion I may have caused.

 

I spent the day today making concrete from 900 ash. The amount of concrete I was able to craft does not agree with the Chance percentage listed in the crafting window. This leads me to believe that either the Chance percentage listed in the crafting window is calculated incorrectly, or the mechanic for determining the success rate of crafting actions is not accurate. While my findings pertains only to crafting concrete, I have a suspicion that all crafting actions may have a similar issue. My Natural Substances skill was 49.97 when I started, and 51.29 when I finished.

 

I created batches of lye in small barrels using 45 ash per 45kg water for a total of 20 batches, as well as 2 smaller batches of leftover lye. The Chance percentage listed was 80% for the first batch, and 81% for all the rest. Here are my results:

 

1     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      12     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

2     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      13     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

3     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      14     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

4     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      15     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

5     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      16     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

6     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      17     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

7     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      18     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

8     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      19     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

9     11 lye       7 concrete     95.4%                      20     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

10   45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      21     45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%

11   45 lye     29 concrete     96.7%                      22     9.75 lye    6 concrete     92.3%

 

Total: 592 concrete     96.4%  (592/613.83)

 

If I understand the purpose of the Chance percentage in the crafting window (which is highly unlikely), it is an approximation of the expected crafting results based on a character's skill level modified by material quality. I would expect that the Chance percentage is not a random chance approximation, but rather a measure of proficiency. Based on the Chance percentage I was given I would expect to see an average of 80 successes out of 100 crafting actions (or 36 concrete per small barrel of lye) with a variation in the results, perhaps ranging from +-5% to +-10%. The results I achieved clearly do not correspond to the Chance percentage, and they are also too consistent to correspond to a random chance calculation (which would actually be a poor way of calculating crafting success). Based on all of the nonsense I just spouted, I think either the Chance percentage needs to be recalculated to show the actual chance of success per crafting action, or the mechanic used to determine successful actions needs to be modified to produce successful crafting actions more in line with the displayed Chance percentage.

 

Alendhor

Aven Linuath, Newspring Island, Xanadu

Edited by Alendhor
Miscalculation

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the percent chance means squat really, but with my nat subs at 67skill I find making concrete lovely now, at about 5/7 chance it seems to make the stuff

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Yes, the crafting success percentage rate does seem to be way off in many instances.

 

Perhaps the excellent new Dev team, who are doing a magnificent job in general I might add, could look into this - not just for concrete but other items as well.

 

 

 

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I wouldn't treat the percentages shown as anything more than a general ballpark estimate to how hard the crafting is going to be. The code that calculates them is entirely separate from the code that does the actual check when you craft, and both parts are a complete mess.

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