A look at Xanadu in light of P&R launch

[Sevenless 385]

Disclaimer1: I am posting graphs, and a description of trends visible within them. I am *not* supporting either side on this. I took out emphasis on interesting conclusions since it seems people thought it meant some support for one side or the other. These are only graphs, other non-graphable information like community wholeness and game atmosphere are non-empirical features of games that influence decisions.

 

Make your own conclusions

 

Disclaimer2: This data is coming 100% from bdew, find his most recent topic here. I'm simply using this as a way to not bog down his posts with Xanadu discussion. Thank you Bdew for providing access to these numbers. Some of this data is from an old post here.

 

I'm really not trying to start a war here, but GL chat has been filled with misinformation.

 

Many seem to have forgotten what it was like when Pristine/Release were launched with new accounts only. I will not impose my opinions on this original post. This will be an as impartial look at the matter as possible. Hopefully people can make informed opinions going forward. Because lets at least have informed over-reactions at the devs right? If I feel like posting my personal conclusions, I'll make a second post after this one to keep them distinctly defined.

 

The biggest claim that doesn't hold up was the P&R launch cost the old server playerbase over time. Or alternatively that people will quit the game on old servers if they are denied access to the new server. These exact arguments were raised with P&R, so lets see what happened.

 

 

 

Admittedly there are some confounding feature releases at the same time which doesn't make this data perfect. But notice something.

 

Pristine's population boom actually coincided with a net increase in accounts on Indy as well.

 

Alright, but that's short term (half a month of data), what about longer?

 

 

In the long run, most of the old servers returned roughly to their original values for premium players online. Pristine and Release continued to gain numbers without costing numbers in other servers until they reached similar populations as the old servers.

 

This was not true however with the release of celebration. Celebration cost exodus most heavily. In the long run, it only serverly impacted the population of the neighbouring server, indy/deli remained relatively unscathed. It is however worth noting that the population of the old freedom cluster still seems to have undergone a net growth by having celi added.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Sevenless

[Sevenless 385]

Personal Conclusions

 

Server theoretical caps:

 

Server clusters seem to have an upward bounding on population. My personal guess is that due to the economical nature of wurm, the market gets too saturated at some point which discourages new players from actively engaging in the economy. This holds especially true in the light of wurm's tendency to give stacking benefits to higher skilled players. Not only can the make the best items, they can make middle quality items far faster than newer players. In the long run this is a good retention strategy, but obviously it comes at a cost for beginning/middling players. Each added server takes a hit to the "efficiency" of bringing in new players as seen in the comparison between Celebration and P&R release.

 

Players migrate like animal populations
 

Likely due to the cost of learning a new area, players don't seem to migrate in instant jumps like they theoretically could. They spread out over time and into directly adjacent areas. This seems like a good model to follow and is directly observable in the Celebration release. P&R muddies the waters somewhat, as new accounts created on Pristine likely hadn't hit saturation point to encourage natural migration yet. However we do see over time that P population drops slightly as R population rises to the point where they have roughly equal populations.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Sevenless

[Object 281]

Excellent post, most people should now understand that getting a fresh start with no existing accounts is an amazing thing.  Clearly one of the reasons with P&R did so well is it was completely new.  New accounts new land new everything, and the older playerbase still had their epic portals to bring money into the new servers.

 

Generally I see a brand new server with brand new accounts an extremely positive thing for the playerbase and I really wish it happened to epic as well.

[Sevenless 385]

Having come from a "sandbox terraforming" game in the past, I do tend to side with the concept of world rebirth. Mind you, that game had entire world resets every 6-10 months and that model doesn't really work with Wurm's game mechanics.

 

But the point of this post was not to convince people of anything. The point was to inform. I want people to make their own decisions because I know full well their voices are going to be far louder than mine when it comes to this.

 

Edit: And thanks for the positive comment I'm almost certain someone's going to get ticked at me over this post XD

Edited April 11, 2014 by Sevenless

[Kegan 3,926]

We have a community divided on two clusters now and there is constant arguing about everything between the two so why are you trying to push for a third? They need to bring them together by joining the two on this new map and let the players pick where they want to go if that is Pristine then fine if that is Independence fine if everyone wants to go to the new server well it is big enough so that is fine too. Stop trying to push your wanting to "start fresh" on the rest of the playerbase. If you want to start fresh then make a new character when the server launches nothing is stopping you.  We for sure don't need yet another thing to argue over with a third PvE cluster. 

Edited April 11, 2014 by Kegan

[Pingpong 1,070]

I'd point out that numbers wise Indi has never recovered from exo/celeb/prisi/release coming online (but you'd have to be around a while to know this). Since character development is what wurm is about, I find it weird that folks are pushing for "exclude old toons because they have too much skill". I do understand the concerns about higher skilled toons flooding the market, I also don't understand why folks just don't skill up and become high skilled to compete in the markets? I enjoyed a well written post none the less. We need more well written ideas on the forums here, thanks for read!

[Sevenless 385]

Kegan: I'm rather disappointed you think this was written to encourage server division. I did explicitly say "Here's the numbers, make your own decision". Even my conclusions don't argue for server fragmentation, just discussion on how players populate servers.

 

Edit: took out emphasis on interesting conclusions as it could be seen as me supporting one side or the other. Edited disclaimer.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Sevenless

[Radni 1,089]

Just move to epic.

[atazs 965]

P&R was a mistake that shouldn't have happened. 

But the devs are known to make very big mistakes in this game 

Edited April 11, 2014 by atazs

[gnomegates 1,429]

I would like to know why they think another server is needed in the first place. If they do not allow current toons to go to that server, and require people to start new accounts, buy new silver and new deeds, then it just looks like an attempt to get more money from already paying customers. If they do allow people to take their current toons, then that is fine, its just another place for people to play. The whole economy thing and not being able to compete I feel is an excuse by people that don't want to put the work into leveling skills that others have.

[Becket 843]

Stop all the bull and open all the servers for everyone.

[Sevenless 385]

I would like to know why they think another server is needed in the first place.

 

That has me terribly curious as well. I saw a dev related account discrediting the steam launch rumour, and I can't see other reasons. Maybe for the PR from having the largest modifiable map online?

 

As for the economy thing: Think back to being a beginner. It's pretty daunting working for a month and being told your q45 pickaxe is worthless. Wurm is such a culture shock compared to other games that easing into it might garner more long term players I guess?

 

Personally I don't care. I would prefer to see changes made to make middling crafters feel more rewarded than new server clusters opened. Both "address" the same problem really. The rare system was certainly a good start.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Sevenless

[atazs 965]

The whole economy thing and not being able to compete I feel is an excuse by people that don't want to put the work into leveling skills that others have.

It always has been. People and the devs don't see that making a server for only new accounts will get flooded by older players that have skilled accounts. These older players already have the advantage of knowning the game. Also the fact that money could be brought over from epic just ruined the whole thing. 

[gnomegates 1,429]

It always has been. People and the devs don't see that making a server for only new accounts will get flooded by older players that have skilled accounts. These older players already have the advantage of knowning the game. Also the fact that money could be brought over from epic just ruined the whole thing. 

 

Even with the more experienced players having a so called "edge" I feel that its just not true. I started playing 8 months ago, I have 5 deeds now, 2 traders, 4 prem accounts, all paid for by earning in game silvers. That is not including the silvers I have "cashed out" of the game by selling them.

 

Put the effort forth and you to shall prosper, but just like real life, alot of people want things handed to them and when things start to get a little hard, they give up and walk away then complain about others that have put the work in. They want what others have without having to do a thing...

[Kegan 3,926]

Put the effort forth and you to shall prosper, but just like real life, alot of people want things handed to them and when things start to get a little hard, they give up and walk away then complain about others that have put the work in. They want what others have without having to do a thing...

or they want yet another "fresh start" because they think they for sure can be the best this time when truth is they never will because they don't put in the effort. 

[gnomegates 1,429]

or they want yet another "fresh start" because they think they for sure can be the best this time when truth is they never will because they don't put in the effort. 

 

Ding Ding Ding

[Radni 1,089]

Idk about y'all bunch of whiners , but wurm is fun from a fresh start! I personally hope it's not a server we can take skilled toons to, cause most obviously freedoms economy is not perfect, nor is much else about it.

Seems P&R turned out better than the original, and the people there don't want to be connected to anyone...

Only people I see demanding connections/etc is the main Freedom cluster.. I wonder why they're so upset when P&R residents are not :3

Maybe Rolf is trying to cut off the snake at the head.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Radni

[Biervampyr 97]

Even with the more experienced players having a so called "edge" I feel that its just not true. I started playing 8 months ago, I have 5 deeds now, 2 traders, 4 prem accounts, all paid for by earning in game silvers. That is not including the silvers I have "cashed out" of the game by selling them.

 

Hmm when everyone will do it like you or put the effort into the Game, who will pay for the Game? Oh and of course i just would go to xanadu with my char. But if i cant i just stay at the old world :-)

[Chiqa 742]

I think it is rapidly approaching the time  for us to get solid information. The mind does not like a void and tries desperately to fill in the holes. 

[gnomegates 1,429]

Hmm when everyone will do it like you or put the effort into the Game, who will pay for the Game? Oh and of course i just would go to xanadu with my char. But if i cant i just stay at the old world :-)

 

All I have to say to people that think that those that don't "buy" silvers and the such don't help "pay" for the game....Complain to Rolf for having the system in place like it is. Don't complain to me and others that simply use the system that is in place. Besides the fact that we do put into the game, cuz people that buy my goods and services typically do buy silvers and their prem from the game. If my good and services were not there for them to purchase, they would not need the silvers, thus they would not buy silvers from the store, thus less money in the game.

 

It works both ways

[Kruggan 519]

Stop all the bull and open all the servers for everyone.

 

Agreed Becket.  The devs can do what they want... but if it's only new players on the new server, I'm done.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Kruggan

[Ecrir 887]

I think all the pve servers should be connected, it was definitely a mistake to split the player base by keeping the last two separate. Never split your player base if it can be avoided. There's plenty of multiplayer games which make the same mistake with dlc map packs. Why you would ever want to split an already relatively small player base is frankly beyond me.

 

There's even an interesting opportunity with a 64x64 server which can be used to reduce the advantage of highly skilled players. Imagine if mailboxes did not exist on such a huge server. Imagine that instead you could put items on a merchant and restrict who can buy a specific item? This way if somebody wants to buy something from your shop, you put it on the merchant and lock it to that person so others can't buy it. Then he/she will have to travel to you to pick it up. Suddenly it doesn't matter nearly as much how highly skilled you are because location suddenly became incredibly important, especially on a huge 64x64 server. Few people will likely travel 4-8 hours to get a ql 70 item if they can get a ql 50-60 version much closer. The time you'd save on using the better item would be lost by making the journey and it the higher ql item would probably cost more too. One big market in the center of the server probably also wouldn't work too well (especially if there is lots of land and if it's hard to reach by boat) because getting there from 75% of the server would still be like crossing Indy from one side to the other, it would take ages.

 

Mind you I really love the convenience of mailboxes, but they also offer a definite advantage to highly skilled players which you cannot ignore.

[Druidnature 1,118]

this thread is going to make me hit my Like cap for once. . .

 

 

They screwed up once, don't screw it up again. Connect it to the main freedom servers, or at the very least, somehow connect it to all of them and allow us to keep are existing characters.

 

If you notice, the "new players" on pristine that all have very good skills, for the majority....aren't new.  It's Old vets taking advantage of new players, and getting very high skills putting these new players back in the same spot. but these "new players" don't realize it because they were all on new accounts.  Doesn't change a thing though when the vets know so many tricks to put them ahead of the pack. (especially with how many moved there)

[Belrindor 663]

If old toons are disallowed, the old vets will just move to the new server with new toons, grind them the most effective way to max, and be on their merry way to controlling the world and it's trade again. It's the same in every game. Not that this is a 'good' or 'bad' thing, it simply is what it is. Ergo, disallowing people to bring over their old toons is pointless and utterly stupid.

[hankrearden 144]

Imagine if mailboxes did not exist on such a huge server.

 

 

I think this is a very interesting idea, it could very well provide a solution to letting new players participate in the economy more quickly, while letting veteran players move over to the new server.  Anyone who complains about the lack of convenience can just stay on the old servers and keep a regular mail system.