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Rolf

Rare item functionality

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doesnt this cause problems, for example if u just need 1 rare part to make the next larger object rare, it pretty much makes the base materials the most valuable rares? A more reasonable suggestion (though I still disagree with putting a stronger bias on it) would be that all the parts used must be rare to guarantee a rare product, with likelihood scaling based on proportion of parts being rare. or something.

Yeah, you could get a rare iron ore, smelt it into rare iron lump, and then make like 50 or so rare needles if this were true :)

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Maybe have rare mats like logs/lumps have a % chance for a rare item anytime you use it but completely consume the item for balancing.

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Or simply lose it's rarity instead of losing any leftover.

(so you don't get lots of tries to make something small like bowstrings or fishing hooks)

Edited by Tinkerer

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Yeah, you could get a rare iron ore, smelt it into rare iron lump, and then make like 50 or so rare needles if this were true :)

-Rare finished product creation should use up all raw resource materiel to make one finished product. Also, in observation of general Wurm trends, 100% success doesn't fit. 90% would be highly likely yet not guaranteed. Personally I have no objections to 100%.

-I got piles of rare raw resources. It is sad that the only use they are actually good for is a "refresh" like benefit.

-Using 1% success(item becomes a rare) and 1100 die rolls, here is http://en.wikipedia....al_distribution data. In short, what this shows is if you some how collect 500 rare bicks, 500 rare clay, and 100 rare planks your tower should result in rare almost all every time. This is because you only need one successful roll (k >= 1) out of the 1100 to make the tower rare and 0 k outcome is very low, assuming I did this right. I also think for this to be true your random success chance needs to be truly random. If by chance the success is 0.5% instead of 1.0%, it is still unlikely to get an outcome with 0 k successes.


p = 0.01
n = 1100.00
C(n,k) k K

1.00E+000 0.00 0.0016%
1.10E+003 1.00 0.0176%
6.04E+005 2.00 0.0975%
2.21E+008 3.00 0.3603%
6.07E+010 4.00 0.9981%
1.33E+013 5.00 2.2099%
2.43E+015 6.00 4.0738%
3.79E+017 7.00 6.4310%
5.18E+019 8.00 8.8751%
6.29E+021 9.00 10.8772%
6.86E+023 10.00 11.9869%
6.80E+025 11.00 11.9979%
6.17E+027 12.00 10.9981%
5.16E+029 13.00 9.2975%
4.01E+031 14.00 7.2918%
2.90E+033 15.00 5.3326%
1.97E+035 16.00 3.6527%
1.25E+037 17.00 2.3527%
7.55E+038 18.00 1.4298%
4.30E+040 19.00 0.8225%
2.32E+042 20.00 0.4490%
1.20E+044 21.00 0.2333%
5.86E+045 22.00 0.1156%
2.75E+047 23.00 0.0547%
Entries 24 through 1100 aren't listed because they are all ~0.0000%

***edit***

After reading another post, I think the chance to make a rare tower using only rare materials is lower then 1% per item. k or the number of success needs to occur 50% of the time.


p = 0.00061
n = 1100.00
C(n,k) k K

1.00E+000 0.00 51.1092%
1.10E+003 1.00 34.3152%
6.04E+005 2.00 11.5093%
2.21E+008 3.00 2.5711%
6.07E+010 4.00 0.4304%
1.33E+013 5.00 0.0576%

Edited by joedobo
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Well, given that some items need a lot of items and some only a couple, the odds definitely favour the bigger items - tower / ships etc if every rare piece used only had a tiny chance.

I'd rather see a high percentage chance but only when using the rare to 'finish' the item (as the last piece - or one of the two pieces being made into a finished item). 'adding' rare items during progress should have a lower chance to affect it. Aside from the fact that you would need to have an 'unfinished rare xxx' if the additions gave a chance which is somewhat strange to consider.

That said however, it would be a pretty monumental achievement to build something like a caravel purely from rare components... in fact it would deserve to be a rare caravel.

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Well, given that some items need a lot of items and some only a couple, the odds definitely favour the bigger items - tower / ships etc if every rare piece used only had a tiny chance.

I'd rather see a high percentage chance but only when using the rare to 'finish' the item (as the last piece - or one of the two pieces being made into a finished item). 'adding' rare items during progress should have a lower chance to affect it. Aside from the fact that you would need to have an 'unfinished rare xxx' if the additions gave a chance which is somewhat strange to consider.

That said however, it would be a pretty monumental achievement to build something like a caravel purely from rare components... in fact it would deserve to be a rare caravel.

-More parts doesn't mean more likely, yes more dice rolls but the server alters success to account for more parts. To put it another way, a tower will have a considerably lower success chance per rare item added compared to a large cart.

-I'm guessing the target overall creation success when using all rare parts is 50%.

-I'm struggling with describing probability, how about a more concrete statement. If a rare is a rare, I could make ONE tower or 550 swords using all rare parts. For the tower and each sword, the chance to create a finished rare would be 50%.

I differentially agree, if someone is able to build a ship from nothing but rare parts is should result rare 100% of the time.

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Well, the only really issue that is making your tiny percentage look good, is the assumption that you are only using rare items for every component. I'd wager most people would only have a pretty small number of rare materials to use.

I certainly wouldn't want a pathetic 50% chance that I might get at least one rare sword when making 550 of them purely from rare parts. If I had 550kg or rare iron - split into about 180 3kg rare lumps, I'd hope to get a lot more than 1 rare long sword blade from those attempts. But that is a lot of rare lumps to have!

(curious side note: can you combine two rare lumps into a larger rare lump?)

When it comes to rares, you are more likely to get rare materials as these are common actions, i.e. digging a thousand dirt will take a while, and you'll likely get a rare or two from the hourly % chance. Imping for hours also means you might hit this chance window too, but I know I've had plenty of dirt, shards, and clay while terraforming and rebuilding deed buildings.

I'd be shooting for 50%+ chance to turn the product rare when attaching or creating using a rare. Lets take for example a fine fishing rod.

Let's say you start out with a rare iron lump and some rare cotton, and assume that you only get one attempt using a rare or the rare item is used up - whether that be attaching it or creating something from it.

At a 50% chance of passing on the 'rare' trait to the product and assuming your creation chance is 80% (for a hook/string/whatever), then you have a 50%*80% chance that you will make a rare string (40%). You'll also have a 40% chance of a normal string, and a 20% chance you fail entirely and the rare cotton is gone.

This means that assuming you have one rare lump, one rare cotton, and one rare log, then each next item (hook, string, shaft) has a 40% of being rare, and therefore a 60% chance of being normal - assuming that if you failed (20%) then you would make a new one out of a non-rare material until you had enough components to assemble a fine fishing rod.

Ok, so now onto the fishing line. again, lets assume an 80% base chance at creation. The failed 20% will require retrying with non-rare parts and will result in a non-rare line.

Of that 80%, you have 40% chance that your hook was rare. (lets call this Hook+) and a 60% chance it was a regular hook.

-- of the 40%:

-- 50% chance the hook+ imparts it's rarity = 80% x 40% x 50% = 16%

-- 50% chance it doesn't

-- 40% chance of having a String+

-- 50% chance the string+ imparts its rarity = 80% x 40% x 50% x 40% x 50% = 3.2%

-- of the 60% (using regular hook which can't impart rarity)

-- 40% (again, that you have string+ giving a 50% chance) = 80% x 60% x 40% x 50% = 9.6%

The 20% failure - means you just have to make a new normal line, but at 50% chance for a material to 'pass on' its rarity, the chance of making the fine fishing line (assuming 80% creation rate) is 16%+3.2%+9.6% = 28.8%

Now for the rod.. and again, let's assume 80% creation success. You currently have a 28.8% chance that your line is rare, and a 40% chance that your shaft is rare.

Of that 80%:

-- 28.8% (Line+)

-- 50% chance of imparting rarity = 80% x 28.8% x 50% = 11.52%

-- 50% chance it didn't:

-- 40% chance of having Shaft+ at 50% chance to pass rarity: 80% x 28.8% x 50% x 40% x 50% = 2.304%

-- of the 71.2% of a normal line, we still have the 40% chance of having a Shaft+

-- 40% (Shaft+) at 50% chance to impart rarity = 80% x 71.2% x 40% x 50% = 11.392%

20% failure means we would have to start all over with other materials.

So, total chance for the Fine fishing rod being rare given that we initially had a rare iron lump, rare cotton and a rare log, is: 11.52% + 2.304% + 11.392% = 25.22%

If you only had one out of three rare items at the start (let's say the iron lump) then your total chance of making a fine fishing line from that as a base material, is only 6.4%.

Having two out of the three would raise that to 11.52%.

The other factor is the 'creation rate' For this, I just assumed a base of 80% for any creation. But if that was less - say only 40% on average for the creations in this chain, then your chance drops even lower - to 5.37% for a fine fishing rod even starting with all three rare materials.

For 'unfinished items' and attaching extra components the chance however that a 'rare piece' imparts it's rarity onto the whole item would have to be significantly less - even if failing to attach it 'poofed' the rare item into nothingness. The components that create the 'unfinished item' or the piece that finishes it should have the big chance.

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I certainly wouldn't want a pathetic 50% chance that I might get at least one rare sword when making 550 of them purely from rare parts. If I had 550kg or rare iron - split into about 180 3kg rare lumps, I'd hope to get a lot more than 1 rare long sword blade from those attempts. But that is a lot of rare lumps to have!

- If a rare is a rare, I could make ONE tower or 550 swords using all rare parts. For THE tower and EACH sword, the chance to create a finished rare would be 50%. Unlikely but possible that you could make 550 rare swords.

- Rare creation should use a 100% chance make assumption. This is in line with higher skilled players, I have that for many things. The market will get flooded with rares if we don't design around the higher skilled players. Following the high skill idea, rare creation from solely rare parts might need to be less then 50% chance.

- For that fishing pole, rare strings and shafts will be available from creating other things. The hook is the only item I'd assign singly to the pole. This example does bring to light another subject. How should we deal with a refined construction material? I like high chances that raw rare resources convert to refined goods. And lower chances that any material, raw or refined, create a finished rare item.

- Those charts I posted above us a Binomial distribution (http://en.wikipedia....stribution...it) it is not some weird formula I just made up. Tho, It is possible I applied this incorrectly.

n is: number of trial, or the number of parts attached; k is 0: representing the chance that not a single part added will result in a success; K is ~50%: represent the overall probability of the event happening given n,p,k. We solve for p: representing the chance per attempt that we will see a success. We want p to result in overall 50% (K) of the time not a single part creates a rare. So if I where to do an experiment lots of times where I roll a dice 1,100 times, the success chance per a roll needs to be around .00061 in order to observer and overall probability of not a single roll succeeding 50% of the time.

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Yes, you would still have an hourly chance to get a rare string - if you were making strings for a while. But my point was that I should have a decent chance to make a rare string by using rare cotton (should I have one of them from a lot of farming) rather than grinding on strings for an hour in the tiny chance I might get one.

Rare creation I don't think should be a guaranteed 100% using completely rare parts, but it should be high enough that you don't have to attempt something countless times to achieve it. The number of rare materials used rather than standard ones should increase that chance, as should your base creation skill. A good tailor therefore would have a higher chance of producing a rare string from rare cotton (a poor skilled tailor has a higher chance at failing and destroying the rare cotton). Likewise a good blacksmith would have a better chance of making a rare hook from a rare lump - but I don't think it should ever be as much as 100% guaranteed.

Just plugging in some different values into the spreadsheet i made for the previous calculations

Average 50% skill creation chance using a 50% rarity transmission chance (creation/finishing not attaching) and using rare base materials,

* rare string / rare shaft / rare hook have a 25% chance

* rare fishing line then has a 12% chance

* rare fine fishing pole has a 9% chance

Average 80% skill creation chance using a 50% rarity transmission chance and again using base rare materials:

* rare string / rare shaft / rare hook have a 40% chance

* rare fishing line then has a 29% chance

* rare fine fishing pole has a 25% chance

Average 90% skill creation chance using a 50% rarity transmission chance and again using rare base materials

* rare string / rare shaft / rare hook have a 45% chance

* rare fishing line then has a 36% chance

* rare fine fishing pole has a 33% chance

Increasing the 50% chance a rare material passes rarity to the product to 75% or 100% gives:

Average 80% skill, 75% rarity chance:

* rare string / rare shaft / rare hook have a 60% chance

* rare fishing line then has a 56% chance

* rare fine fishing pole has a 54% chance

Average 80% skill, 100% rarity chance:

* rare string / rare shaft / rare hook have a 80% chance

* rare fishing line then has a 77% chance

* rare fine fishing pole has a 76% chance

Average 100% skill, 75% rarity chance:

* rare string / rare shaft / rare hook have a 75% chance

* rare fishing line then has a 81% chance

* rare fine fishing pole has a 83% chance

Average 100% skill, 100% rarity chance:

* rare string / rare shaft / rare hook have a 100% chance

* rare fishing line then has a 100% chance

* rare fine fishing pole has a 100% chance

Yeah your use of binomial probability only really applies to the mass grinding or attachment of a lot of items each with a low chance. I was instead focusing on items that were completely created using one or two items - and then reused on the next part of the item (as opposed to a tower/boat/forge/wall... attaching would need to have a significantly lower impact and the binomial part has use in calculating the chances on that side of things)

My calculations are not exactly some weird formula I just cooked up either. Its just based on a standard probability tree. The only assumptions it makes is that you only had 1 rare lump, and if you failed to make a rare hook, that you continued with a regular hook instead, instead of aborting the whole item and calling your singular attempt a fail - and for simplicity I used a standard average 'creation chance' instead of different ones for different skills/items. Really though, harder items would have a lower chance. Higher chance to create a rare plank from a rare log than making a rare oar instead from the same log.

In the case of a tower, using completely rare parts should have a much better chance than using no rare parts - but masonry skill should also be a crucial factor. When failing to attach, the rare item is used up to no effect. If you had excess rare materials so even failing and losing parts (masonry skill factor) you still only attached rares, it still shouldn't be guaranteed (rarity factor) - just highly likely - even though such a monumental amount of rare items going into something almost deserves to end up having something fantastic made.

Also bear in mind this is showing the probability from base materials. If you already happened to get a rare shaft during the hourly chance, then that significantly increases the chance to make the fine fishing rod, as the shaft is now 100% certain, instead of (carp skill x rarity factor).

For the 'unfinished items' that need multiple attachments, the last thing to consider is the overall chance vs value of the item. Is it fair to say that the tower (using 1000+ rare pieces) should that have more chance than something smaller like a large cart (at <35 rare pieces)?

Perhaps another way would be to simply look at it the other way around. And say that almost everything had an 50% chance to pass on its rarity (cotton -> string, log -> plank, shaft -> handle etc) but every non-rare element you use in the construction diminishes the odds rather than rares increasing it.

It's also worth noting that getting the rare materials in the beginning is a hard and slow process, but 100% transmission means that all the items and objects are too easy to achieve rarity. There should be a balance between person A: spending several hours imping swords to have one turn rare, and person B who mined for several hours and got enough rare lumps to make a rare blade.

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Yes, you would still have an hourly chance to get a rare string - if you were making strings for a while. But my point was that I should have a decent chance to make a rare string by using rare cotton (should I have one of them from a lot of farming) rather than grinding on strings for an hour in the tiny chance I might get one.

Agreed, Since its a refined resources, that chance should be very high. Where as if it was a finished high value product (longsword) that chance should be much lower (at the most 50%)

Rare creation I don't think should be a guaranteed 100% using completely rare parts, but it should be high enough that you don't have to attempt something countless times to achieve it. The number of rare materials used rather than standard ones should increase that chance, as should your base creation skill. A good tailor therefore would have a higher chance of producing a rare string from rare cotton (a poor skilled tailor has a higher chance at failing and destroying the rare cotton). Likewise a good blacksmith would have a better chance of making a rare hook from a rare lump - but I don't think it should ever be as much as 100% guaranteed.

For finished products that require lots of parts, I think 100% totally applies. Then again, I'm not unsure what definably qualifies as lots of parts. A tower is a yes, Corbita and larger ships are yes, large cart is no.

Yeah your use of binomial probability only really applies to the mass grinding or attachment of a lot of items each with a low chance. I was instead focusing on items that were completely created using one or two items - and then reused on the next part of the item (as opposed to a tower/boat/forge/wall... attaching would need to have a significantly lower impact and the binomial part has use in calculating the chances on that side of things)

My calculations are not exactly some weird formula I just cooked up either. Its just based on a standard probability tree.

I didn't mean to say your where making things up. What your doing looks fine. For any event where we are attaching at least 5 parts the binomial should work and its applicability gets stronger as an item's part count increases.

For the 'unfinished items' that need multiple attachments, the last thing to consider is the overall chance vs value of the item. Is it fair to say that the tower (using 1000+ rare pieces) should that have more chance than something smaller like a large cart (at <35 rare pieces)?

Defiantly, item value should factor into it. Bracket 1: armor, weapons, towers, (maybe ships, carts), Bracket 2: all tools, ships, carts and other completely finish products. Bracket 3: refined resources which includes simple finished crafted items like fine fishing line. Bracket 4: raw resources.

There are many possibilities to expand on the system but they all increase the difficulty to actually implement. Given the Dev blog I just read (http://wurmonline.tu...blog-reinstated), its safe to say the rare system won't be changing anytime soon except to fix bugs.

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Aye indeed... sadly not much will happen and it will just remain a hourly small chance whether it be a rare dirt of someone imping a high ql item :( Would be nice to actually have something a little bit more predictable/usable.

Just one thing to consider though with respect to creation and using rare pieces. It's easy to just consider the big numbers and assuming they are all rare - and coming up with a guessed value for chance - but logistically.. getting that many rare components in the first place? heh.. not so hard for a small item - but serious work on an item that even needs 20 pieces!

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we had about 6 rare clay jars and a Supreme clay jar, tried to fire last night and every one of them became normal

On a side note, my last two unfinished rares imp'd and completed to rare finished items. Not sure if the RNG felt sorry for me or not, but the first was a tool, and the second was a slab created and imp'd just last night. Imping the slab after creation also did not remove the rare status (imp'd from about 5ql to mid 20's)

Do we know if there were changes to the rare system?

Edited by Hussars

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my last two unfinished rares imp'd and completed to rare finished items.

Interesting, as i interpret that, if an unfinished rare item always becomes a finished rare item we wouldn't need to keep using rare parts once it goes rare.

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Interesting, as i interpret that, if an unfinished rare item always becomes a finished rare item we wouldn't need to keep using rare parts once it goes rare.

Not sure.. I'll keep my eyes open to see if it happens again, but currently only getting harvested rares (dirt, logs, etc...)

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I don't know what rare items should do, but the one thing that they shouldn't do is;

<Item Seller>: I have %item% for sale for %price%.

<Item Buyer>: Is it %rare level%?

<Item Seller>: no it is just a normal %item%.

<Item Seller>: Sorry not interested, only %rare level% %item%'s are worth buying.

No matter what the bonus is, if its too good it will lead to massive inflation due to having to cover the costs of producing a lot of non rare trash items, just to make that one rare that will sell.

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Rare Guard Towers kind of pulse with a fuzzy glow now. Ok for day time. Would be nice if it were actually visible at night perhaps a brighter light.

Edited by Sarcaticous

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Latest discovery: rare items are +1QL on creation, apparently. I just made a 95,33QL string of cloth using 93,33QL cotton and a rare spindle. This was supposed to be 94,33QL max becuase of the rare spindle, and yet it went one QL further.

Not sure if restricted to situations where rare tools are used or if it happens to all/most rares in general.

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Latest discovery: rare items are +1QL on creation, apparently. I just made a 95,33QL string of cloth using 93,33QL cotton and a rare spindle. This was supposed to be 94,33QL max becuase of the rare spindle, and yet it went one QL further.

Not sure if restricted to situations where rare tools are used or if it happens to all/most rares in general.

Yep they add +1 to QL for rare(presumably +2QL for supreme) I make ropes that are 1ql above the wemp I'm using all the time. I haven't tried it out to see if you can get above 100ql though

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Yep they add +1 to QL for rare(presumably +2QL for supreme) I make ropes that are 1ql above the wemp I'm using all the time. I haven't tried it out to see if you can get above 100ql though

That's not what I'm saying. I got +2QL with a rare spindle, because the product itself was rare.

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Have rare scythe but not noticing anything different.

If it doesn't +1 quality of the harvest then its only use is a 0.1s faster timer when harvesting.

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I seem to see a lot of items popping up at the marketplace and people shouting it out in Kchat. Just dont seem so rare to me. Im sure we will be flooded soon and then no one will want any items that are not rare. I am curious how it will effect the economy in the long haul. Better change the name from rare to common soon. Already see several people buying rare only items. Its bad enough fasting hurt need for food, now you get so damn many rare dirts,shards etc you almost never even need to eat just refresh with a Sac. Sad to see such possibilities for a food crafting system get flushed down the toilet.

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-1 for all rares. Silly idea not only for PvP but for newbies in general. Rolf, please take the game back a couple of years just after the Wurm servers crashed. That's when Wurm was at it's best, from then till now Wurm has only gone downhill... and fast.

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You can make rare mine doors (rock) but they don't have any effect when planted, nor glow when planted.

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