Glynflorel

Peppertess: Piebald pinto filly with rare draft trait “It seems stronger than normal.”

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A cute little horse with a rare draft trait. Since I haven’t seen these being traded publicly yet, I decided to try my hand at an auction.

 

4nyK9AT.png

 

Starting bid: 15 s
Increment (minimum): 1 s
Sniper Protection: 1 hour
Private Bids: not accepted
Pick-up at Melody N13 (reachable by boat).

 

 

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I'd love to buy this horse, but the price is a bit too steep with how difficult (suspected impossible) it is for the rare horse traits to be passed to offspring, and the horse having only 2 draft traits otherwise.

 

Would you consider auctioning at a lower start value and/or a private sale, assuming someone doesn't prove me wrong and bid?

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I thought I read in the update notes that the rare traits are not passed.  But I could be wrong.  But if that is true, 15s is crazy IMHO

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Hi Aleck, I completely understand the hesitation!

 

From my own observations, I’m guesstimating that the trait has a 10% chance of passing on if a single parent has it. (Based on a rather small sample size of approximately 15 breedings with the trait passing twice, at approximately 65 AH.) 

Admittingly for a female that still means it is likely to take a long time before the trait passes.

On the other hand, that is still significantly better than the random chance of getting the trait, and I may essentially be giving up on a monopoly on the trait by selling her. (It’s unclear to me if anyone else has managed to breed it yet - I was in part hoping this auction might reveal that.)

Also, the starting price factors in the delayed opportunity for myself to start trying to breed with both parents having the trait.

 

Bottomline: I’m unlikely to sell her at a lower price point right now, but given that no one beats me to the punch, I’d be happy to either try and breed a mule with the trait at a lower price, or to put a male (which, given a large enough herd of mares would allow you to start passing the trait very quickly) on auction in a couple of weeks.
 

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If you've successfully bred the trait, can you post the other horses - especially if one is this one's parent? That would convince me to start the bidding in earnest. :)

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Absolutely!

 

The dad:

909BP9b.png

 

And (half)brother:

hhBWyIk.png

 

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Alright, as promised:

 

15s

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Just thought I would share some of my info here...

 

I've been breeding rare pairs for a couple of months now and only one of them has produced a rare foal which to me says that the chance is no more or less than any none rare pair, I'm glad that you had good luck getting rares but I feel it is a case of the exception doesn't make the rule.

I checked my logs for the mother that did birth a rare just to see how many she has bred

"Search "Yazmeendep will probably give birth in a while!" (190 hits in 3 files)" So one pair almost 200 foals for one rare, and none of the other pairs, my observation puts a rare horse at about 1 in 300 but almost none of any of my breeding pairs have given birth to more than one this is just dividing my rares from total births

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Hi SmeJack,

 

First of all, can you explain how it's possible Yazmeendep gave birth 190 times since the 26th of May? That is twice per day!?

 

Secondly, could you provide more data? Exactly which horses did you breed? Do you already have enough horses with rare traits to regularly breed two of the same rare traits together?

 

Finally, I have no idea what the chance of getting a rare from non-rare-traited parents is but if we assume your number of 1 in 300, the likelihood of randomly getting exactly the same rare trait as the father twice out of only 15 breedings is extremely unlikely...

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She often gives birth 4 times a day, breeding is much faster on pvp servers, yes, as I said I have many pairs of rare horses breeding. Its not unlikely, like anything rng you can get lucky and its not so unlikely to have the same rare when its the dominant category

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You claim a base probability of 1/300.
If we assume that there is a probability of 1 that the random rare trait assigned will be a draft trait, that still leaves two possible draft traits, lowering the probability to 1/600 per trial. 
For 2 out of 15 trials, that leaves us with a cumulative binomial probability of 0.00028748514. 
That’s extremely far from being “not unlikely”.

 

It’s much more likely that the breeding of rare traits has been tweaked on PvP to account for the faster breeding rates.
 

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Theres nothing to suggest that it was made different between servers but that's ok I didn't want to get into an argument, we just thought it would be remiss to not share the info :) 

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No worries, sorry if I'm combative - my only other auction also ended out in an argument (over if beehives worked or not), which left a bad taste. It's totally fair to add your own perspective.

 

I'm personally still convinced that with the numbers I've personally seen, it must be more likely to pass on the rare traits on PvE (0.00028748514 is really too small to just be luck, especially given that there seem to be no other clear numbers coming from PvE servers yet(?)).

 

But I'm willing to cancel the auction until I've been able to test more and/or we've seen the effects of the upcoming patch. I don't want to rip anyone off. 

@Keridwyn@AleckWould you prefer that?

 

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Posted (edited)

I think that would be my preference, but I can't speak for Keridwyn.

 

I would also love to test out breeding the horse myself, however, so just in case Keridwyn doesn't agree:

17s

 

If Keridwyn agrees, however, I'd be fine withdrawing both our bids to await the results of further testing.

Edited by Aleck

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it has been stated that the trait passing system is going to be tweaked in the next update within a month. Thus any testing would be low value since this exact feature is to be changed. IMO just run the auction since people here should be well aware of the state of breeding being up in the air.

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Alright! To avoid unclarity about the rules, and since even with the new info you’re still willing to make new bids, let us continue the auction as planned for now.
That leaves about 36 minutes on the sniper protection for new bids, if that passes I will get in touch with you about the details Aleck. The offer to cancel all-to-gether and redo this once new data is available / the update has passed would still be on the table from my side, with the choice being yours.
 

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And that should conclude this very interesting auction! 
Thanks to the participants for their bids and the spectators for the spirited debate ;)
I’ll get in touch with you on how to best continue Aleck!

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Dang, too slow - be sure to let us know how it goes!

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