Etherdrifter

Population Data So Far

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So, a quick reality check here (my summary for April will come next week since I'm busy marking exams this weekend!)

 

The data isn't telling us much beyond "what is being done now isn't working"; it isn't suggesting that better free play, or faster action timers, or even more content are going to improve the game's population.  These are prognositcations on our own part, some of which may well be grounded in solid theory, others which may be grounded in experience, and some in wishful and hopeful thinking.

 

The thing is, we all agree on some things helping out:

 

1.  A world that feels more alive, be it in the systems presented or in the variety of life and its behaviours.

2.  The server code needs overhauling, as it stands it is just too laggy at high populations, even if we did get the population back we wouldn't keep it because they'd ragequit over the lag.

3.  Too much of what has been implemented has been half implemented, and things need finishing off rather than being left mothballed.  Flesh out the priest update, continue making combat feel more immersive, clean up building bugs that have been around longer than most people have been playing (looking at you hedge planting), sort out the missing runes, actually give stub skills some form of use!

 

Now, if the current community (as fractured as it is, with its different ideal visions for wurm, who never agree) can agree on this, then surely that indicates broad appeal (within Wurm's target demographic, the players who are still around) and, at this point, broad appeal to that demographic is unlikely to hurt is it?

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1 hour ago, Etherdrifter said:

2.  The server code needs overhauling, as it stands it is just too laggy at high populations, even if we did get the population back we wouldn't keep it because they'd ragequit over the lag.

3.  Too much of what has been implemented has been half implemented, and things need finishing off rather than being left mothballed.  Flesh out the priest update, continue making combat feel more immersive, clean up building bugs that have been around longer than most people have been playing (looking at you hedge planting), sort out the missing runes, actually give stub skills some form of use!

 

I'd feel bad for the devs if they go ahead with 2. Not long ago, forum was crying in their big baby bottles about the lack of new content being released right away. The amount of time and work to do this would honestly probably kill new content releasing.

As for 3, yeah, there's a lot of systems and mechanics I really do with they'd go over, tweak and change without major overhauls to the skill or experience.

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i am actualy not sure i should continue to play, after 15+ years , my enjoyment of the game reach a dead end...

there is a long list  of reasons i stopped logging in a month ago.
whatever the reasons, good going wurm.

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13 minutes ago, Elwood2 said:

i am actualy not sure i should continue to play, after 15+ years , my enjoyment of the game reach a dead end...

there is a long list  of reasons i stopped logging in a month ago.
whatever the reasons, good going wurm.

😭

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I too have quit playing after 7 years, the DEVs never listen to what content players want, the Lag is horrible when servers have too much population. The code needs re-written or something. The world only feels alive when there is enough players on, but even then it still kinda doesn't. Not sure if NPC's would help, or likely add to lag. I also have pointed out before that everyone can do every thing, I suggested having careers. Races would also be cool, like Dwarves and Elves, etc. In all honesty WURM died awhile back when the economy went away. I did like having the option of selling Silvers if I wanted. What really killed WURM for me is the broken email system that is supposed to warn you when Deed Upkeep is low. I never got the message and by the time I was messaged by a player what was going on at my deed having disbanded, I just said feck it and I'm done with WURM. You DEV's have never understood what we want in the game. So RIP WURM, you were good while it lasted.

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The only reason I continue to play is because I purchased a year's worth of premium on Black Friday. I will consider quitting for good once that runs out.

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As time passes it becomes increasingly obvious that the steam launch was likely nothing more than a last ditch cash grab from the new company before leaving it to stagnate, taking the money elsewhere. 

It's especially upsetting that the work that is apparently being done is going towards implementing things that should've been in BEFORE the steam launch and the mass influx of new players/toons from it. 

 

Quitting and going back to lurking the forums has definitely been on my mind often the last few months, but then again there is practically no chance of another "reboot" or "relaunch" opportunity like there was with steam. Rushing plans/content screwed the game, once again.

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Is Rolf still around?

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56 minutes ago, LorenaMontana said:

Is Rolf still around?

 

no he sold out like a year ago

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I wonder if releasing it on epic games would help... Releasing more cosmetics like the Path of Exile model to regenerate some more income. Use mods made by Wurm Unlimited into Online (MOBA genre was made by mods). There is plenty of opportunities... But Idk how much time the current team has, to even consider.. at this stage I think small features and QoL helps to maintain the player base and QoL for newer players would be awesome to tedious and obnoxious systems. . . But you need something more to drag players into the game. 

 

If I look at the game state. I think there is enough to do. Enough to decorate, ideas to be made and plans to execute. Survival part to my opinion is not really existing in wurm online. A suggestion could be that people need to make a settlement together and that needs to withhold attacks from an AI attacking it, that also know how to destroy. And enter fences. It would be a event you could teleport to after x amount of items are made. Within the settlement. (That's what I came up with ...)

 

The other tedious thing for new players. Is looking at a action timer and standing still without doing anything during the timer that ticks away. That should have ways to either watch it or perform actions during the game. Like a requirement to equip your hammer and stand next to the forge. Some kind of event line playing out what you should be doing (step by step guide). And you get like 2 minutes of doing it in correct order and in that time you get x amount of items/imp increases. To make it at least less boring then watching the timergo down.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Doubt releasing Wurm on another platform would help. Steam reviews aren't overwhelmingly positive at this point, I don't see Epic games bringing anything new to the table. 

 

I guess one of the questions on people's mind - armchair speculating here - is = We had the Steam release based on the assumption that: 

 

1. it would bring in revenue & new players

2 .new content would be added,

3. Devs would be hired to fix broken systems/ bugs

4. A roadmap would be viable for 2021/2022 with transparent communication between management / customers

 

We're slowly getting close to a year since the steam release, and I gotta say, not much content has been added since then, player population is obviously declining, 1 dev was apparently hired, no clear roadmap is established and old broken systems are still broken. Might be a "parent company" thing, dictating orders to milk wurm for what it's left, dunno. At this point I'm more curious if anything can be salvaged. 

Edited by elentari

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I need everyone here quitting to drop all their iron keys off at my deed please.

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7 hours ago, Deltora said:

I wonder if releasing it on epic games would help...

why would it?

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8 hours ago, Deltora said:

I wonder if releasing it on epic games would help... .

 

 

 

People here including the devs seem to mistake epic games store and steam with free advertisement. They just will not advertise a game which hasn't got any good numbers. So when reviews and player counts are bad the game is more and more hidden on those platforms and gets less attention every day the numbers decline. As long as the key problems of Wurm aren't fixed things will get worse before they get better.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Nukacola said:

The only reason I continue to play is because I purchased a year's worth of premium on Black Friday. I will consider quitting for good once that runs out.

 

Why would you continue playing if that's the only reason? The money is spend and gone, but your free time isn't yet and is worth far more. Sounds like you ran into the sunk cost fallacy ;)

 

  

1 hour ago, Sklo:D said:

 

People here including the devs seem to mistake epic games store and steam with free advertisement. They just will not advertise a game which hasn't got any good numbers. So when reviews and player counts are bad the game is more and more hidden on those platforms and gets less attention every day the numbers decline. As long as the key problems of Wurm aren't fixed things will get worse before they get better.

 

Yeah, the days of Steam being free advertisement are long gone, it's now far easier to get snowed under by the ton of other games which release weekly. As a free to play game it's probably even worse, since you can't really put a discount on the price of the game during any of the big sale events either.

Edited by Ecrir

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1 hour ago, Ecrir said:

since you can't really put a discount on the price of the game during any of the big sale events eithe

 

You can advertise limited subscription offers, aka buy 6 months of prem get extra X Y Z rewards and stuff.

 

But yeah. It's a vicious cycle between reviews, content and player pop.

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It's hard to understand how anyone could have only negative things to say about a game that has kept them entertained for five/ten/fifteen years.

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1 minute ago, Minnie said:

It's hard to understand how anyone could have only negative things to say about a game that has kept them entertained for five/ten/fifteen years.

ez. the positive things are long forgotten, because they have played for so long.

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3 hours ago, Minnie said:

It's hard to understand how anyone could have only negative things to say about a game that has kept them entertained for five/ten/fifteen years.

Context of this post is negative, if you want to read something positive make a post about it.

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On 4/18/2021 at 10:34 AM, sweatygopher said:

I ran a town that had recruited about 140 people.  It has 4 active players now, I don't play anymore either.  ...

 

These are just various complaints I heard a lot of consistently.

 

 


Well said Dave, except it is 2 active players now. If it weren't for Covid restrictions I would have never indulged the OCD side of me by playing this game so much, but these are soon over. I don't feel I have much to add in terms of constructive criticism that wasn't already mentioned by someone else here.

I had the most fun, when I was a newb and thought the game is something else than it really is. I was the village cook in the huge village Dave mentioned and people gathering at the oven added a sense of community that seems artificial in hindsight. All you do is spam pizzas, which gets old quickly. I lament how easily we lost our roleplaying population, since the game offers them basically zero tools. These are the people who made the village feel alive the most, but they got bored so soon, and I can't fault them at all.

The journal goals kept me going on for longer but I now reached the "ludicrous cluster" and before I start considering 100 rifts, I'd rather quit the game. Thanks to everyone who prepared the rifts I attended, it is appreciated, but for me this doesn't change my opinion that rifts are content straight from hell.

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43 minutes ago, ThatYoungLad said:

Context of this post is negative, if you want to read something positive make a post about it.

 

Never said I wanted to read something positive, or that negative posts in general are somehow bad.

 

3 hours ago, Minnie said:

It's hard to understand how anyone could have only negative things to say about a game that has kept them entertained for five/ten/fifteen years.

 

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4 hours ago, elentari said:

 

You can advertise limited subscription offers, aka buy 6 months of prem get extra X Y Z rewards and stuff.

 

But yeah. It's a vicious cycle between reviews, content and player pop.

 

Sure, but that's not going to show up in the list of all the other discounted games on steam and requires actual advertisement to boot. Other games can just slap a discount on their normal price and voila, they show up when searching for discounted games during such sale events. Also can't really do a free weekend on Steam either, as the game is already free.

 

A f2p game either needs word of mouth or actual advertisement, like showing up under Featured & Recommended at Steam, but the former doesn't really work that well with a small player base and the latter is probably quite expensive.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Minnie said:

It's hard to understand how anyone could have only negative things to say about a game that has kept them entertained for five/ten/fifteen years.

 

It's kinda like a long term relationship. One of the general goals is to work out the negative parts on both sides. But if those negative things persist over the years, eventually the relationship collapses.

 

The sad part is that at its height, Wurm could have probably hired 20 developers to add so much fun content to the game. 


A lot of questionable design decisions have simply piled up that make players leave. Abandoning WU. Abandoning Epic for years. Absurd journal goals like 100 rifts (seriously, please fixt that pile of doo doo) . Pvp is dead on chaos. Splitting the playerbase over more and more clusters. Bugs not fixed. Missions being the same after 10 years. More communication between staff and players. Last post regarding the animal update was almost a month ago. No significant QOL improvements to make the game faster and less grindy. A ridiculous lack of advertisement. An unneeded fishing update that turned a simple system into a convoluted system with the same rewards. No two way transfer of skill between EPIC<>FREEDOM essentially voiding any reason to play Epic.

 

Name whatever you want. They all are variables that are giving Wurm the slow death of a thousand quits. I am not certain we could ever attribute Wurm's pop decline to just one thing. More like a system of things that need to be looked at globally. 

 

Most of the negative things said about wurm from long time players actually come from a love of the game, as counter intuitive as it sounds. We all see Wurm's insane potential constantly reigned in for some reason or other. Most of these things can be fixed if turbo-life-saving-mode would be engaged. 

Edited by elentari
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16 minutes ago, elentari said:

 

It's kinda like a long term relationship. One of the general goals is to work out the negative parts on both sides. But if those negative things persist over the years, eventually the relationship collapses.

 

The sad part is that at its height, Wurm could have probably hired 20 developers to add so much fun content to the game. 


A lot of questionable design decisions have simply piled up that make players leave. Abandoning WU. Abandoning Epic for years. Absurd journal goals like 100 rifts (seriously, please fixt that pile of doo doo) . Pvp is dead on chaos. Splitting the playerbase over more and more clusters. Bugs not fixed. Missions being the same after 10 years. More communication between staff and players. Last post regarding the animal update was almost a month ago. No significant QOL improvements to make the game faster and less grindy. A ridiculous lack of advertisement. An unneeded fishing update that turned a simple system into a convoluted system with the same rewards. No two way transfer of skill between EPIC<>FREEDOM essentially voiding any reason to play Epic.

 

Name whatever you want. They all are variables that are giving Wurm the slow death of a thousand quits. I am not certain we could ever attribute Wurm's pop decline to just one thing. More like a system of things that need to be looked at globally. 

 

Most of the negative things said about wurm from long time players actually come from a love of the game, as counter intuitive as it sounds. We all see Wurm's insane potential constantly reigned in for some reason or other. Most of these things can be fixed if turbo-life-saving-mode would be engaged. 

well said there, i stand behind you with this,  plus many other reasons.

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First things first, the data!

 

Spoiler

266,423,2021-04-16,22:0:1
285,405,2021-04-16,23:0:2
217,394,2021-04-17,0:0:2
212,372,2021-04-17,1:0:2
211,357,2021-04-17,2:0:1
214,353,2021-04-17,3:0:1
199,330,2021-04-17,4:0:1
175,307,2021-04-17,5:0:1
185,289,2021-04-17,6:0:1
176,248,2021-04-17,7:0:1
149,229,2021-04-17,8:0:1
145,237,2021-04-17,9:0:1
166,258,2021-04-17,10:0:2
166,265,2021-04-17,11:0:2
167,269,2021-04-17,12:0:2
166,278,2021-04-17,13:0:1
37,66,2021-04-17,14:0:1
150,252,2021-04-17,15:0:1
190,335,2021-04-17,16:0:1
213,381,2021-04-17,17:0:1
244,391,2021-04-17,18:0:1
261,402,2021-04-17,19:0:1
292,426,2021-04-17,20:0:1
297,419,2021-04-17,21:0:1
304,452,2021-04-17,22:0:1
299,459,2021-04-17,23:0:1
276,411,2021-04-18,0:0:1
254,389,2021-04-18,1:0:1
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220,407,2021-04-19,0:0:1
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211,393,2021-04-20,17:0:1
237,420,2021-04-20,18:0:1
258,443,2021-04-20,19:0:2
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254,455,2021-04-20,21:0:2
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150,227,2021-04-23,6:0:1
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128,221,2021-04-23,8:0:1
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125,234,2021-04-23,11:0:1
135,239,2021-04-23,12:0:1
136,272,2021-04-23,13:0:2
135,297,2021-04-23,14:0:2
169,329,2021-04-23,15:0:2
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181,381,2021-04-23,17:0:1
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234,417,2021-04-23,19:0:1
258,451,2021-04-23,20:0:1
255,447,2021-04-23,21:0:1
242,437,2021-04-23,22:0:1
221,406,2021-04-23,23:0:1
198,384,2021-04-24,0:0:1
190,359,2021-04-24,1:0:1
189,358,2021-04-24,2:0:1
190,323,2021-04-24,3:0:1
176,286,2021-04-24,4:0:1
173,283,2021-04-24,5:0:2
152,272,2021-04-24,6:0:2
145,250,2021-04-24,7:0:1
131,249,2021-04-24,8:0:1
136,241,2021-04-24,9:0:1
149,255,2021-04-24,10:0:1
164,265,2021-04-24,11:0:1
153,279,2021-04-24,12:0:1
192,299,2021-04-24,13:0:1
208,314,2021-04-24,14:0:1
227,334,2021-04-24,15:0:1
244,377,2021-04-24,16:0:2
286,396,2021-04-24,17:0:2
291,424,2021-04-24,18:0:2
398,466,2021-04-24,19:0:1
338,462,2021-04-24,20:0:1
307,442,2021-04-24,21:0:1
316,451,2021-04-24,22:0:1
278,413,2021-04-24,23:0:1
233,400,2021-04-25,0:0:1
211,370,2021-04-25,1:0:1
200,345,2021-04-25,2:0:1
201,319,2021-04-25,3:0:1
195,297,2021-04-25,4:0:1
160,300,2021-04-25,5:0:1
137,276,2021-04-25,6:0:1
151,258,2021-04-25,7:0:1
166,245,2021-04-25,8:0:1
156,247,2021-04-25,9:0:1
153,272,2021-04-25,10:0:1
155,290,2021-04-25,11:0:1
151,296,2021-04-25,12:0:1
174,309,2021-04-25,13:0:1
205,343,2021-04-25,14:0:1
232,354,2021-04-25,15:0:1
241,410,2021-04-25,16:0:1
263,451,2021-04-25,17:0:2
262,459,2021-04-25,18:0:2
293,460,2021-04-25,19:0:2
307,479,2021-04-25,20:0:1
318,466,2021-04-25,21:0:1
318,456,2021-04-25,22:0:1
256,436,2021-04-25,23:0:1
220,388,2021-04-26,0:0:1
226,366,2021-04-26,1:0:1
219,361,2021-04-26,2:0:1
192,353,2021-04-26,3:0:1
180,331,2021-04-26,4:0:1
154,312,2021-04-26,5:0:1
149,265,2021-04-26,6:0:1
127,242,2021-04-26,7:0:1
123,228,2021-04-26,8:0:1
108,210,2021-04-26,9:0:1
89,207,2021-04-26,10:0:1
111,235,2021-04-26,11:0:1
119,233,2021-04-26,12:0:1
129,256,2021-04-26,13:0:1
159,272,2021-04-26,14:0:1
173,303,2021-04-26,15:0:1
183,311,2021-04-26,16:0:1
199,333,2021-04-26,17:0:1
200,373,2021-04-26,18:0:1
223,373,2021-04-26,19:0:1
241,394,2021-04-26,20:0:2
261,417,2021-04-26,21:0:2
249,383,2021-04-26,22:0:2
224,349,2021-04-26,23:0:1
201,322,2021-04-27,0:0:1
186,318,2021-04-27,1:0:1
183,325,2021-04-27,2:0:1
183,316,2021-04-27,3:0:1
150,275,2021-04-27,4:0:1
135,253,2021-04-27,5:0:1
125,228,2021-04-27,6:0:1
125,195,2021-04-27,7:0:2
118,181,2021-04-27,8:0:2
109,209,2021-04-27,9:0:2
117,204,2021-04-27,10:0:1
108,211,2021-04-27,11:0:1
110,228,2021-04-27,12:0:1
105,244,2021-04-27,13:0:1
145,268,2021-04-27,14:0:1
155,291,2021-04-27,15:0:1
173,302,2021-04-27,16:0:1
196,352,2021-04-27,17:0:1
208,364,2021-04-27,18:0:1
236,394,2021-04-27,19:0:1
258,411,2021-04-27,20:0:1
218,403,2021-04-27,21:0:1
206,382,2021-04-27,22:0:1
173,361,2021-04-27,23:0:2
148,329,2021-04-28,0:0:2
164,316,2021-04-28,1:0:2
173,319,2021-04-28,2:0:1
166,306,2021-04-28,3:0:1
168,274,2021-04-28,4:0:1
148,257,2021-04-28,5:0:1
132,224,2021-04-28,6:0:1
119,194,2021-04-28,7:0:1
109,201,2021-04-28,8:0:1
113,216,2021-04-28,9:0:2
113,234,2021-04-28,10:0:2
119,233,2021-04-28,11:0:2
116,250,2021-04-28,12:0:2
134,260,2021-04-28,13:0:1
151,277,2021-04-28,14:0:1
158,282,2021-04-28,15:0:1
172,308,2021-04-28,16:0:1
198,330,2021-04-28,17:0:1
202,373,2021-04-28,18:0:1
223,405,2021-04-28,19:0:1
241,380,2021-04-28,20:0:1
257,362,2021-04-28,21:0:1
215,376,2021-04-28,22:0:1
200,342,2021-04-28,23:0:1
185,323,2021-04-29,0:0:1
209,319,2021-04-29,1:0:1
207,314,2021-04-29,2:0:2
183,291,2021-04-29,3:0:2
156,280,2021-04-29,4:0:1
140,263,2021-04-29,5:0:1
139,234,2021-04-29,6:0:1
114,191,2021-04-29,7:0:1
143,203,2021-04-29,8:0:1
135,207,2021-04-29,9:0:1
116,209,2021-04-29,10:0:1
120,243,2021-04-29,11:0:1
116,264,2021-04-29,12:0:2
128,275,2021-04-29,13:0:2
0,16,2021-04-29,14:0:1
130,212,2021-04-29,15:0:1
165,266,2021-04-29,16:0:1
169,315,2021-04-29,17:0:1
182,333,2021-04-29,18:0:1
228,353,2021-04-29,19:0:1
243,399,2021-04-29,20:0:1
259,404,2021-04-29,21:0:1
215,394,2021-04-29,22:0:1
203,362,2021-04-29,23:0:1
192,316,2021-04-30,0:0:1
189,321,2021-04-30,1:0:1
198,319,2021-04-30,2:0:1
199,324,2021-04-30,3:0:2
183,318,2021-04-30,4:0:2
179,281,2021-04-30,5:0:2
151,242,2021-04-30,6:0:1
137,230,2021-04-30,7:0:1
132,229,2021-04-30,8:0:1
105,225,2021-04-30,9:0:1
106,220,2021-04-30,10:0:1
128,219,2021-04-30,11:0:1
125,252,2021-04-30,12:0:1
132,269,2021-04-30,13:0:1
162,288,2021-04-30,14:0:2
164,313,2021-04-30,15:0:2
180,329,2021-04-30,16:0:2
186,341,2021-04-30,17:0:1
192,354,2021-04-30,18:0:1
222,364,2021-04-30,19:0:1
219,397,2021-04-30,20:0:1
251,390,2021-04-30,21:0:1
257,370,2021-04-30,22:0:1
238,362,2021-04-30,23:0:1
198,347,2021-05-01,0:0:1
193,305,2021-05-01,1:0:1
199,295,2021-05-01,2:0:1
199,320,2021-05-01,3:0:1
201,326,2021-05-01,4:0:1
176,310,2021-05-01,5:0:1
167,275,2021-05-01,6:0:1
158,258,2021-05-01,7:0:1
142,250,2021-05-01,8:0:1
146,253,2021-05-01,9:0:1
153,231,2021-05-01,10:0:1
161,259,2021-05-01,11:0:1
161,277,2021-05-01,12:0:1
154,274,2021-05-01,13:0:1
183,309,2021-05-01,14:0:1
211,346,2021-05-01,15:0:1
216,372,2021-05-01,16:0:1
228,376,2021-05-01,17:0:2
276,386,2021-05-01,18:0:2
283,404,2021-05-01,19:0:2
308,405,2021-05-01,20:0:1
303,427,2021-05-01,21:0:1
280,421,2021-05-01,22:0:1
264,393,2021-05-01,23:0:1
258,369,2021-05-02,0:0:1
235,361,2021-05-02,1:0:1
229,349,2021-05-02,2:0:1
208,336,2021-05-02,3:0:1
191,315,2021-05-02,4:0:1
173,313,2021-05-02,5:0:1
157,282,2021-05-02,6:0:1
152,272,2021-05-02,7:0:1
142,271,2021-05-02,8:0:1
140,248,2021-05-02,9:0:1
169,263,2021-05-02,10:0:1
167,255,2021-05-02,11:0:1
154,270,2021-05-02,12:0:1
167,302,2021-05-02,13:0:1
177,322,2021-05-02,14:0:1
218,327,2021-05-02,15:0:1
248,362,2021-05-02,16:0:1
242,404,2021-05-02,17:0:1
275,434,2021-05-02,18:0:1
309,431,2021-05-02,19:0:2
313,450,2021-05-02,20:0:2
310,465,2021-05-02,21:0:2
305,432,2021-05-02,22:0:1
257,388,2021-05-02,23:0:1
238,401,2021-05-03,0:0:1
215,368,2021-05-03,1:0:1
220,347,2021-05-03,2:0:1
196,320,2021-05-03,3:0:1
178,282,2021-05-03,4:0:1
178,273,2021-05-03,5:0:1
149,239,2021-05-03,6:0:1
134,221,2021-05-03,7:0:2
120,203,2021-05-03,8:0:2
113,211,2021-05-03,9:0:1
107,224,2021-05-03,10:0:1
106,242,2021-05-03,11:0:1
124,255,2021-05-03,12:0:1
126,214,2021-05-03,13:0:1
164,258,2021-05-03,14:0:1
197,284,2021-05-03,15:0:1
225,295,2021-05-03,16:0:1
237,345,2021-05-03,17:0:1
252,367,2021-05-03,18:0:1
262,367,2021-05-03,19:0:1
272,382,2021-05-03,20:0:1
277,381,2021-05-03,21:0:1
236,366,2021-05-03,22:0:2
216,331,2021-05-03,23:0:2
202,333,2021-05-04,0:0:2
231,317,2021-05-04,1:0:1
229,329,2021-05-04,2:0:1
226,323,2021-05-04,3:0:1
192,298,2021-05-04,4:0:1
176,267,2021-05-04,5:0:1
153,230,2021-05-04,6:0:1
139,198,2021-05-04,7:0:1
125,191,2021-05-04,8:0:1
127,188,2021-05-04,9:0:1
130,196,2021-05-04,10:0:2
137,213,2021-05-04,11:0:2
138,238,2021-05-04,12:0:1
145,232,2021-05-04,13:0:1
177,262,2021-05-04,14:0:1
194,295,2021-05-04,15:0:1
210,302,2021-05-04,16:0:1
234,358,2021-05-04,17:0:1
261,403,2021-05-04,18:0:1
268,404,2021-05-04,19:0:1
303,421,2021-05-04,20:0:1
310,408,2021-05-04,21:0:1
259,374,2021-05-04,22:0:1
229,336,2021-05-04,23:0:1
202,313,2021-05-05,0:0:1
204,308,2021-05-05,1:0:2
208,304,2021-05-05,2:0:2
193,296,2021-05-05,3:0:2
187,288,2021-05-05,4:0:1
151,255,2021-05-05,5:0:1
135,217,2021-05-05,6:0:1
128,205,2021-05-05,7:0:1
138,191,2021-05-05,8:0:1
156,222,2021-05-05,9:0:1
146,228,2021-05-05,10:0:1
133,239,2021-05-05,11:0:1
121,269,2021-05-05,12:0:2
138,268,2021-05-05,13:0:2
165,281,2021-05-05,14:0:2
177,316,2021-05-05,15:0:1
216,312,2021-05-05,16:0:1
241,336,2021-05-05,17:0:1
259,330,2021-05-05,18:0:1
253,374,2021-05-05,19:0:1
295,381,2021-05-05,20:0:1
270,375,2021-05-05,21:0:1
260,353,2021-05-05,22:0:1
249,330,2021-05-05,23:0:1
213,310,2021-05-06,0:0:1
198,305,2021-05-06,1:0:1
206,325,2021-05-06,2:0:1
186,295,2021-05-06,3:0:2
181,282,2021-05-06,4:0:2
164,257,2021-05-06,5:0:2
160,244,2021-05-06,6:0:1
140,222,2021-05-06,7:0:1
124,215,2021-05-06,8:0:1
126,214,2021-05-06,9:0:1
127,205,2021-05-06,10:0:1
138,219,2021-05-06,11:0:1
144,233,2021-05-06,12:0:1
175,225,2021-05-06,13:0:2
1,0,2021-05-06,14:0:2
132,193,2021-05-06,15:0:2
186,262,2021-05-06,16:0:1
224,307,2021-05-06,17:0:1
214,332,2021-05-06,18:0:1

 

Next, the overview!

 

    OLD     NEW     TOTAL     GROWTH     OLD     NEW  
Date O-Min O-Avg O-Max N-Min N-Avg M-Max Min Average Max O-Growth N-Growth T-Growth Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max
01/04/2021 114 193 270 252 314.4583 390 114 253.7292 390 -14.4583 3.291667 -5.58333            
02/04/2021 28 216.875 342 72 308.4167 427 28 262.6458 427 23.875 -6.04167 8.916667            
03/04/2021 180 267.5 462 253 342.75 441 180 305.125 462 50.625 34.33333 42.47917            
04/04/2021 107 242.8333 383 151 352.5 482 107 297.6667 482 -24.6667 9.75 -7.45833            
05/04/2021 151 220.7083 289 255 356.8333 454 151 288.7708 454 -22.125 4.333333 -8.89583            
06/04/2021 121 197.5833 297 249 338.3333 441 121 267.9583 441 -23.125 -18.5 -20.8125 28 220.8512 462   332.0655  
07/04/2021 117 190.6667 294 228 336.5 469 117 263.5833 469 -6.91667 -1.83333 -4.375            
08/04/2021 1 174.5417 262 0 299 392 1 236.7708 392 -16.125 -37.5 -26.8125            
09/04/2021 124 196.375 286 220 314.2083 395 124 255.2917 395 21.83333 15.20833 18.52083            
10/04/2021 141 229.4583 315 221 330.875 479 141 280.1667 479 33.08333 16.66667 24.875            
11/04/2021 131 238.2083 415 275 381.75 519 131 309.9792 519 8.75 50.875 29.8125            
12/04/2021 101 174.875 253 208 346.0833 546 101 260.4792 546 -63.3333 -35.6667 -49.5            
13/04/2021 104 184.4583 296 211 329.25 477 104 256.8542 477 9.583333 -16.8333 -3.625 1 198.369 415   333.9524  
14/04/2021 113 183.2917 272 218 321.4583 462 113 252.375 462 -1.16667 -7.79167 -4.47917            
15/04/2021 0 177.5 273 0 303.4583 434 0 240.4792 434 -5.79167 -18 -11.8958            
16/04/2021 141 199.2917 285 227 329.0833 433 141 264.1875 433 21.79167 25.625 23.70833            
17/04/2021 37 201.4583 304 66 323.7083 459 37 262.5833 459 2.166667 -5.375 -1.60417            
18/04/2021 153 224.0417 316 252 376.125 499 153 300.0833 499 22.58333 52.41667 37.5            
19/04/2021 120 190.8333 272 200 324.8333 436 120 257.8333 436 -33.2083 -51.2917 -42.25            
20/04/2021 133 193.375 266 242 343.5417 455 133 268.4583 455 2.541667 18.70833 10.625 0 195.6845 316   331.744  
21/04/2021 134 187.0417 269 210 336.375 452 134 261.7083 452 -6.33333 -7.16667 -6.75            
22/04/2021 15 174.5417 259 77 309.75 404 15 242.1458 404 -12.5 -26.625 -19.5625            
23/04/2021 114 177.6667 258 215 318.5 451 114 248.0833 451 3.125 8.75 5.9375            
24/04/2021 131 217.9583 398 241 340.9167 466 131 279.4375 466 40.29167 22.41667 31.35417            
25/04/2021 137 214.0833 318 245 355.75 479 137 284.9167 479 -3.875 14.83333 5.479167            
26/04/2021 89 177.4167 261 207 312.2917 417 89 244.8542 417 -36.6667 -43.4583 -40.0625            
27/04/2021 105 163.4583 258 181 293.2083 411 105 228.3333 411 -13.9583 -19.0833 -16.5208 15 187.4524 398   323.8274  
28/04/2021 109 164.125 257 194 293.6667 405 109 228.8958 405 0.666667 0.458333 0.5625            
29/04/2021 0 161.875 259 16 277.9167 404 0 219.8958 404 -2.25 -15.75 -9            
30/04/2021 105 176.125 257 219 303.0417 397 105 239.5833 397 14.25 25.125 19.6875       197.0389 524.1917 327.1528
                                     
                                0.88477   0.938035
                          % Increase/Decrease -11.523   -6.19649

 

The April Report

 

The numbers at the bottom speak for themselves, we found ourselves with an average population below 200 on the old cluster again, placing the old cluster well within the "critical" criteria, though here we must note that there have been a lot of outages by the look of things on the minimum scale.  To check, I compared the average maximum player count for March (336.90323) with that of April (298.2) and noted that the decline (-11.487936) closely matches that presented in the averages.  I cannot argue in good faith that this is sufficient evidence to confirm that outages had no impact on player numbers, I can definitely argue that it suggests it.

 

Overall, the state of the old cluster is bad, and the same can be said for the new cluster.  Both have seen extensive player erosion this month and the old cluster has declined far faster than I predicted.  Now, this may jusy be the time of year, March->April is rather unusual as some years (2015, 2017, and 2020) would suggest growth (at most gaining 9.84% from the previous month) from older data; however, other years (2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019) would suggest a loss (at most losing 20.66% from the previous month).  This year's loss, however, is rather extreme (the second largest on record) at 11.523%.  However, this should be taken with a pinch of salt as the total loss of players this year is 25, which pales in comparison with some losses recorded previously (the extremes being 2014's loss of 179 players in a month and even 2019's loss of 78 players).  However, the populations during both those times was substantially larger, and the player demographic quite different.

 

Overall, the news isn't good, and I'm working hard to make it sound better than it is.  The old cluster has returned to being in critical health, and the new one is stumbling around in an unhealthy state.  April->May has generally seen a loss in player numbers more often than a gain, so things are looking very grim indeed.  Will 2021 be the year of sub 150; doubtful, but suddenly we must confess that it is no longer impossible.

 

 

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