Etherdrifter

Population Data So Far

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To be fair by now there are a ton of indicators (not just in Wurm) to measure "how dead" a server is regardless of apparent population size.

 

1. Trade chat = pretty dead, used to be spammed every 30 seconds with new offers, now you see about 10 offers a day

2. Forum chat = Used to be livelier here

3. Global / server chat = again , silent

4. Just wandering about to see if you have any neighbours at all

5. Lack of pvp death tabs or general combat

 

We can measure 1 variable, in this case population size, but it's difficult to account for the number of alts that pump the game's pop stats.

 

The variables I mentioned are an indicator on how a new player might perceive the game.


Think about previous MMO gaming experiences and how "alive" games felt when you just ran around and didn't know where to look first, you were bombarded by info and players talking, trade chats scrolling by like a stock exchange ticker.

I am really concerned that the move to open extra servers will speed up the game's demise since we went from having 4 dead servers (epic) to having 11 dead servers with the old freedom ones slowly joining the fray.

 

I don't doubt wurm can survive with a minimal population of die hard fans pumping $ into alts and deeds but 300ish players keeping Wurm alive won't be much of an mmo but rather more of a small gaming club at best.

 

Something needs to be done fast. A vision to really expand Wurm population while fixing its retention and initial player experience.

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What do you want to prove? Speaking about Epic? That one is maybe not dead but indeed a small club of diehards, sadly.

 

As to the rest, the "population data" averaging server maintenance downtimes to trim down participation figures do not help a lot. "The old servers" have recovered nicely from the poor state of Q4/19 and look, while not exciting, quite healthy. The new cluster has lost much of the initial participation but is still 1.6 to 2 times more populated than the old freedom cluster, and is nothing less than "in free fall" though there still is some decline, most, as predicted, in PvP.

 

Speaking of southern freedom, only point 5 applies 😎 no PvP death tab, same to my very casual experience with a Harmony alt, on NFI.  All the others do not. As for forum participation, it lacks the overheated "forum PvP", not that I miss it.

 

That said, it is obvious that Wurm population is stagnant and though slowly falling again after the Steam lauch rush, The best metric is https://jenn001.game.wurmonline.com/mrtg/weeklylogins.html . The unique lopgins dropped below 6000 first time February 13, and did again today, still averaging around 6000. That is not a pleasant situation though some decline from late winter to autumn always was a pattern.

 

It is not to be seen that the steam launch success can simply be repeated. The question is how to get and keep new players where keeping seems to be the major problem as there is still influx of newcomers. While we can never expect to hold them all churn rate remains a core problem, but lack of visibility is too.

 

Edit: Just as a side note: I just checked sandboxer.org . The last Wurm related news were from September, 2020 . Before, there have been Wurm related news every month, sometimes more than one. The last message was about the rollout of Melody. Neither Cadence creation much less the introduction of uniques or rifts find any mention. Are the communication channels to sandboxer broken, do they boycott us, are there any press releases from Wurm Online?

 

Edited by Ekcin

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5 hours ago, elentari said:

To be fair by now there are a ton of indicators (not just in Wurm) to measure "how dead" a server is regardless of apparent population size.

 

1. Trade chat = pretty dead, used to be spammed every 30 seconds with new offers, now you see about 10 offers a day

2. Forum chat = Used to be livelier here

3. Global / server chat = again , silent

4. Just wandering about to see if you have any neighbours at all

5. Lack of pvp death tabs or general combat

 

We can measure 1 variable, in this case population size, but it's difficult to account for the number of alts that pump the game's pop stats.

 

The variables I mentioned are an indicator on how a new player might perceive the game.


Think about previous MMO gaming experiences and how "alive" games felt when you just ran around and didn't know where to look first, you were bombarded by info and players talking, trade chats scrolling by like a stock exchange ticker.

I am really concerned that the move to open extra servers will speed up the game's demise since we went from having 4 dead servers (epic) to having 11 dead servers with the old freedom ones slowly joining the fray.

 

I don't doubt wurm can survive with a minimal population of die hard fans pumping $ into alts and deeds but 300ish players keeping Wurm alive won't be much of an mmo but rather more of a small gaming club at best.

 

Something needs to be done fast. A vision to really expand Wurm population while fixing its retention and initial player experience.

Maybe time for update with plans in close and far future for this year.. hopefully.. but also not ideal timing with pr shift so rip learning any news right now.

Steam hype is going down fast.. less %, but the big chunks of alts and possible new players are gone.. might be a good time to get a survey to these who haven't logged in some time and ask them about their decision to take a break or leave etc..

--eidt

Big advertisement and mass population coming at once wont do any good.. if all new player land on the same server and just crash the experience for everybody there with land destruction and server lag, etc issues and dramas.

Servers seem to bottleneck once a certain number of players are on them.. and all start moving and doing stuff all over the place, 1 easy way to observe this is rifts and especially slayings, traveling over the map just DESTROY performance and brings lag for little under or over an hour for everybody.. crossing does give all on the server some lag.. while data could be possibly synced temporarily in a way that wont interrupt everyone's experience.. if 1 player or a boat with alts.. decides to start jumping through the borders for fun..

Edited by Finnn

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9 hours ago, Ekcin said:

"The old servers" have recovered nicely from the poor state of Q4/19 and look, while not exciting, quite healthy.

Yep, we're seeing some bounce back as folks jump ship on the new cluster since the gold rush is officially over ^_^

 

Though, it is VERY much worth noting here that they're a far cry from "healthy".  They're not quite critical any more; but one should not confuse recovery with health!  Indeed, wurm's population is continuing to drop steadily as a whole.

 

9 hours ago, Ekcin said:

the steam launch success

Ah, we'll have to agree to disagree here; the current state of affairs hardly deserves the word "success" in many people's views.  Release and Pristine were a success; steam was largely a failure in that it failed to capture the huge, once in a game's lifetime, surge of players.

 

9 hours ago, Ekcin said:

The question is how to get and keep new players where keeping seems to be the major problem as there is still influx of newcomers

Here we find some agreement at last; the trouble is the method within which to manage this.

 

Over the years, we've seen a lot of content added to the game, popular changes made, and a great deal of really bad bugs patched.  However, population has declined steadily while all this has gone on.  This is all very much natural to the lifecycle of an mmorpg, and not a failing of wurm in particular; older mmorpgs rarely see the kind of active population they did in their heyday.

 

What is a failing of wurm in particular is the attitude towards the game's lifeblood, free players.  Here Wurm stands out at the worst of its kind, and is an example literature will record as what not to do.

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21 hours ago, Etherdrifter said:

What is a failing of wurm in particular is the attitude towards the game's lifeblood, free players.  Here Wurm stands out at the worst of its kind, and is an example literature will record as what not to do.

 

I agree on that one. Free accounts should be modified a bit to make the game more enticing.

 

maybe a re-modelling of the subscription concept would be best. 

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I'd like to see this concept... tough to remodel a sub-based game into f2p without gutting it.. if you make f2ps comfortable.. what's the point to sub and maintain the service?

 

This is not a f2p game.. it's whole life rounds currently around sub model.. to change it.. you need working or well planned transfer to microtransaction model and events... regularly planning new events, content added really often as that will be the new MAIN money maker; additionally you can push a sub model that increases sb, and brings more benefits.

 

With wurm's history or not looking into any RL or game economy and improvement of the profits.. can't see it happen without drastic team change. This is more than 180... it's travel through time and dimensions.. kind of change. Do you still think something like that is possible?

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I saw a comparable change of dealing with free players in Ryzom. Before the game went to Steam, there has only been a 14 days long free trial. That was changed to unlimited free play, capped at half of the skill obtainable (which was 250 in 63 skills so that a free player could reach 125, same for an unsubbed player). This has been introduced 9 or ten years ago, due to a dwindling population, and though that game (from 2004) is nothing less than overpopulated, it still exists today. And rpughly half of the modest population are free players which are integrated into roleplay and events, not few of them subbing here and then.

 

The "f2p" system in Wurm does not allow a player much independent gameplay, it even hardly pretends to do so. I recall very well how messages are popping up asking you to sub as f2p once any of your skills and characteristics hits 20. which is obtrusive and ballyhooing more likely to drive away players rather than convincing them (at least there should be a profile option to deselect these molesting messages).

 

It would be reasonable to raise the limit to 30 at least, or better 50,  maybe leaving some limitations like having villagers in place (or better not, dunno). It would allow for additional players and make look the game less empty for those who dislike it. It would also address negative feedback from the steam community and maybe help to get new players with some if not many subbing at least for some time.

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Posted (edited)

Wurm's subscription model does seem a bit archaic right now. Not many games out there still using this model although the "game streaming" movement (whic is just another sub model with extra steps)  is picking up traction every year, but it's not ready to be fully deployed right now on every platform and market.

 

The issue with a 100% subscription model is that you need to have something to show for your customers on a monthly basis. (at least)

 

Say you subscribe to a journal that publishes scientific articles on AI development. You pay a monthly fee but you do get some articles out of it. If the publisher would fail to publish any articles 2 months in a row (leaving you basically with paying for nothing) would you think twice about cancelling your sub? I think a lot of people have been quitting lately due to lack of content past the steam release.

 

Wurm unfortunately has a very slow development process, probably due to the limitations of java and the old code it runs on. A lot of the complaints I've seen lately revolve around the lack of content past a certain point and I do agree with that statement. It's been quite a while since we've had any update. The combat update is supposedly kicking in soon but samool's post is already 3 weeks old.

 

Wurm needs to add content more often but in lighter steps. Instead of adding a big update every 6 months, it should deliver smaller content bits on a monthly basis or even twice a month. Say a new animal color, say a new weapon update, say some work on animal pathfinding, etc.

 

If there's one thing I've learned in working with a lot of IT guys over the years, is that the most succesful of them deliver code or projects on a periodic basis to a client, instead of delivering the entire product (often with bugs attached) after months of work but nothing finished to a client during the production process.

 

If wurm's to survive it needs to change some things to be more appealing:

 

1. Deliver content more often, but not as code heavy (such as revamping an entire magic system or combat system). The alternative has already been explored, it implies bleeding players while the rest "wait" for the next big update, 6-8-10 months later. This is not a good philosophy.

 

2. Re-work the sub system to make "freemium" more appealing and subscribing having more of an impact rather than a "gateway to content" mindset. Wurm would benefit immensely to its market and overal quality of gameplayer if we have 2000 subscribers but 10 000 non prems unique players. Those 10 000 would contribute to the economy, would contribute to having a lively world filled with interactions and make the game seem more alive than it is right now.

On 2/18/2021 at 11:09 PM, Etherdrifter said:

What is a failing of wurm in particular is the attitude towards the game's lifeblood, free players.

 

He's right you know.

 

3. Unify the playerbase instead of dividing it. Make a Freedom<>Epic skill transfer (not a 1:1 ratio, but a decent equation so you keep some skills earned on Epic and transfer them over to Freedom) since 20 euros spent on Epic subscription is the same as 20 euros spent playing on Freedom. Don't make players feel their money is worth less or you'll lose even those. Figure out a way to unify the current servers, including NFI<>SFI + Epic<>Freedom skill transfers so people can have the sandbox experience they want.  Adding more servers will just result in having more ghost town experiences over time.

 

I suggest you check out Wilczan's post about it.

 

P.S. I am curious how the population data will look pre-combat update and post-combat update sir @Etherdrifter

Edited by elentari
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Posted (edited)

Alrighty, so there is a lot going on; I was hoping for some more conclusive data before I posted anything new but with exam prep starting for my students its going to be tricky to post reliable so...

 

First, the new data so far:

 

Spoiler

305,537,2021-02-05,23:0:1
278,528,2021-02-06,0:0:1
263,541,2021-02-06,1:0:1
254,542,2021-02-06,2:0:1
243,524,2021-02-06,3:0:1
225,498,2021-02-06,4:0:1
200,431,2021-02-06,5:0:1
193,420,2021-02-06,6:0:1
160,383,2021-02-06,7:0:2
164,346,2021-02-06,8:0:2
169,340,2021-02-06,9:0:1
187,331,2021-02-06,10:0:1
193,371,2021-02-06,11:0:1
214,358,2021-02-06,12:0:1
240,372,2021-02-06,13:0:1
242,425,2021-02-06,14:0:1
281,488,2021-02-06,15:0:1
268,534,2021-02-06,16:0:1
300,575,2021-02-06,17:0:1
337,634,2021-02-06,18:0:1
370,635,2021-02-06,19:0:1
372,680,2021-02-06,20:0:1
388,672,2021-02-06,21:0:1
380,697,2021-02-06,22:0:2
359,695,2021-02-06,23:0:2
325,648,2021-02-07,0:0:2
291,589,2021-02-07,1:0:1
284,546,2021-02-07,2:0:1
262,521,2021-02-07,3:0:1
246,493,2021-02-07,4:0:1
214,457,2021-02-07,5:0:1
209,434,2021-02-07,6:0:1
190,387,2021-02-07,7:0:1
175,367,2021-02-07,8:0:2
185,371,2021-02-07,9:0:2
174,400,2021-02-07,10:0:2
186,385,2021-02-07,11:0:1
234,401,2021-02-07,12:0:1
252,414,2021-02-07,13:0:1
300,462,2021-02-07,14:0:1
312,499,2021-02-07,15:0:1
335,540,2021-02-07,16:0:1
386,589,2021-02-07,17:0:1
397,649,2021-02-07,18:0:1
403,672,2021-02-07,19:0:1
405,669,2021-02-07,20:0:1
388,666,2021-02-07,21:0:1
373,594,2021-02-07,22:0:1
320,587,2021-02-07,23:0:1
274,520,2021-02-08,0:0:2
257,483,2021-02-08,1:0:2
246,480,2021-02-08,2:0:2
244,472,2021-02-08,3:0:1
237,422,2021-02-08,4:0:1
193,373,2021-02-08,5:0:1
159,326,2021-02-08,6:0:1
153,307,2021-02-08,7:0:1
142,287,2021-02-08,8:0:1
147,274,2021-02-08,9:0:1
162,297,2021-02-08,10:0:1
184,271,2021-02-08,11:0:2
200,288,2021-02-08,12:0:2
198,331,2021-02-08,13:0:2
240,381,2021-02-08,14:0:1
260,414,2021-02-08,15:0:1
281,480,2021-02-08,16:0:1
287,553,2021-02-08,17:0:1
315,592,2021-02-08,18:0:1
334,586,2021-02-08,19:0:1
334,580,2021-02-08,20:0:1
324,588,2021-02-08,21:0:1
303,579,2021-02-08,22:0:1
290,524,2021-02-08,23:0:1
240,503,2021-02-09,0:0:1
235,473,2021-02-09,1:0:1
242,434,2021-02-09,2:0:1
231,417,2021-02-09,3:0:2
195,411,2021-02-09,4:0:2
177,380,2021-02-09,5:0:2
163,360,2021-02-09,6:0:1
170,340,2021-02-09,7:0:1
185,325,2021-02-09,8:0:1
180,332,2021-02-09,9:0:1
172,325,2021-02-09,10:0:1
175,326,2021-02-09,11:0:1
198,345,2021-02-09,12:0:1
207,362,2021-02-09,13:0:1
218,371,2021-02-09,14:0:2
240,414,2021-02-09,15:0:2
268,471,2021-02-09,16:0:1
279,513,2021-02-09,17:0:1
318,542,2021-02-09,18:0:1
315,559,2021-02-09,19:0:1
319,563,2021-02-09,20:0:1
307,582,2021-02-09,21:0:1
290,559,2021-02-09,22:0:1
266,511,2021-02-09,23:0:1
258,491,2021-02-10,0:0:1
264,460,2021-02-10,1:0:1
237,464,2021-02-10,2:0:1
235,447,2021-02-10,3:0:1
222,409,2021-02-10,4:0:1
176,353,2021-02-10,5:0:1
153,303,2021-02-10,6:0:2
159,260,2021-02-10,7:0:1
154,244,2021-02-10,8:0:1
165,264,2021-02-10,9:0:1
161,293,2021-02-10,10:0:1
170,318,2021-02-10,11:0:1
194,334,2021-02-10,12:0:1
203,333,2021-02-10,13:0:1
204,357,2021-02-10,14:0:1
231,412,2021-02-10,15:0:1
256,466,2021-02-10,16:0:1
283,462,2021-02-10,17:0:2
327,503,2021-02-10,18:0:2
327,505,2021-02-10,19:0:1
341,509,2021-02-10,20:0:1
349,524,2021-02-10,21:0:1
314,510,2021-02-10,22:0:1
280,490,2021-02-10,23:0:1
276,480,2021-02-11,0:0:1
257,452,2021-02-11,1:0:1
249,436,2021-02-11,2:0:1
245,417,2021-02-11,3:0:1
217,416,2021-02-11,4:0:1
176,352,2021-02-11,5:0:1
159,318,2021-02-11,6:0:1
157,301,2021-02-11,7:0:1
144,274,2021-02-11,8:0:1
161,292,2021-02-11,9:0:1
158,282,2021-02-11,10:0:1
163,298,2021-02-11,11:0:1
181,317,2021-02-11,12:0:1
191,356,2021-02-11,13:0:1
1,0,2021-02-11,14:0:1
138,239,2021-02-11,15:0:1
211,368,2021-02-11,16:0:1
240,428,2021-02-11,17:0:1
267,462,2021-02-11,18:0:2
292,469,2021-02-11,19:0:2
318,517,2021-02-11,20:0:1
312,565,2021-02-11,21:0:1
292,538,2021-02-11,22:0:1
255,502,2021-02-11,23:0:1
246,486,2021-02-12,0:0:1
244,459,2021-02-12,1:0:1
247,472,2021-02-12,2:0:1
232,446,2021-02-12,3:0:1
208,430,2021-02-12,4:0:1
186,382,2021-02-12,5:0:1
164,341,2021-02-12,6:0:1
172,302,2021-02-12,7:0:1
149,293,2021-02-12,8:0:1
147,318,2021-02-12,9:0:1
168,302,2021-02-12,10:0:1
181,325,2021-02-12,11:0:1
195,327,2021-02-12,12:0:1
205,342,2021-02-12,13:0:1
217,370,2021-02-12,14:0:1
247,397,2021-02-12,15:0:1
267,451,2021-02-12,16:0:1
265,485,2021-02-12,17:0:1
295,488,2021-02-12,18:0:1
309,513,2021-02-12,19:0:2
319,518,2021-02-12,20:0:2
339,550,2021-02-12,21:0:2
302,556,2021-02-12,22:0:1
263,542,2021-02-12,23:0:1
249,500,2021-02-13,0:0:1
257,483,2021-02-13,1:0:1
256,466,2021-02-13,2:0:1
230,454,2021-02-13,3:0:1
219,434,2021-02-13,4:0:1
194,418,2021-02-13,5:0:1
184,362,2021-02-13,6:0:1
166,318,2021-02-13,7:0:2
177,318,2021-02-13,8:0:2
200,311,2021-02-13,9:0:1
206,336,2021-02-13,10:0:1
215,357,2021-02-13,11:0:1
223,366,2021-02-13,12:0:1
223,399,2021-02-13,13:0:1
270,438,2021-02-13,14:0:1
288,459,2021-02-13,15:0:1
291,496,2021-02-13,16:0:1
343,537,2021-02-13,17:0:1
399,514,2021-02-13,18:0:1
481,505,2021-02-13,19:0:1
427,521,2021-02-13,20:0:1
379,543,2021-02-13,21:0:2
368,562,2021-02-13,22:0:2
347,544,2021-02-13,23:0:2
292,501,2021-02-14,0:0:1
275,470,2021-02-14,1:0:1
252,440,2021-02-14,2:0:1
242,415,2021-02-14,3:0:1
249,403,2021-02-14,4:0:1
234,366,2021-02-14,5:0:1
223,349,2021-02-14,6:0:1
196,313,2021-02-14,7:0:1
198,298,2021-02-14,8:0:2
195,315,2021-02-14,9:0:2
209,326,2021-02-14,10:0:2
214,344,2021-02-14,11:0:1
215,346,2021-02-14,12:0:1
240,349,2021-02-14,13:0:1
249,404,2021-02-14,14:0:1
277,429,2021-02-14,15:0:1
306,493,2021-02-14,16:0:1
337,531,2021-02-14,17:0:1
363,527,2021-02-14,18:0:1
375,543,2021-02-14,19:0:1
362,572,2021-02-14,20:0:1
382,576,2021-02-14,21:0:1
372,574,2021-02-14,22:0:1
316,514,2021-02-14,23:0:1
266,488,2021-02-15,0:0:2
247,438,2021-02-15,1:0:2
242,413,2021-02-15,2:0:1
204,399,2021-02-15,3:0:1
183,363,2021-02-15,4:0:1
160,349,2021-02-15,5:0:1
150,364,2021-02-15,6:0:1
152,316,2021-02-15,7:0:1
164,292,2021-02-15,8:0:1
163,288,2021-02-15,9:0:1
171,303,2021-02-15,10:0:2
151,296,2021-02-15,11:0:2
174,312,2021-02-15,12:0:2
169,305,2021-02-15,13:0:1
189,336,2021-02-15,14:0:1
206,353,2021-02-15,15:0:1
247,405,2021-02-15,16:0:1
262,467,2021-02-15,17:0:1
324,477,2021-02-15,18:0:1
339,515,2021-02-15,19:0:1
347,514,2021-02-15,20:0:1
327,515,2021-02-15,21:0:1
325,521,2021-02-15,22:0:1
298,487,2021-02-15,23:0:1
271,478,2021-02-16,0:0:1
269,433,2021-02-16,1:0:2
245,420,2021-02-16,2:0:2
231,432,2021-02-16,3:0:2
183,392,2021-02-16,5:0:1
165,342,2021-02-16,6:0:1
173,298,2021-02-16,7:0:1
182,278,2021-02-16,8:0:1
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211,370,2021-03-07,5:0:2
189,298,2021-03-07,6:0:2
188,282,2021-03-07,7:0:1
188,265,2021-03-07,8:0:1
164,275,2021-03-07,9:0:1
173,283,2021-03-07,10:0:1
196,285,2021-03-07,11:0:1
210,302,2021-03-07,12:0:1
225,324,2021-03-07,13:0:1
239,343,2021-03-07,14:0:2
281,371,2021-03-07,15:0:2
301,407,2021-03-07,16:0:2
311,423,2021-03-07,17:0:1
325,460,2021-03-07,18:0:1
348,505,2021-03-07,19:0:1
352,504,2021-03-07,20:0:1
338,504,2021-03-07,21:0:1
320,501,2021-03-07,22:0:1
306,462,2021-03-07,23:0:1
272,421,2021-03-08,0:0:1
287,404,2021-03-08,1:0:1
276,387,2021-03-08,2:0:1
250,374,2021-03-08,3:0:1
212,337,2021-03-08,4:0:1
174,303,2021-03-08,5:0:2
152,263,2021-03-08,6:0:2
140,217,2021-03-08,7:0:1
132,226,2021-03-08,8:0:1
137,213,2021-03-08,9:0:1
148,221,2021-03-08,10:0:1
162,227,2021-03-08,11:0:1
177,238,2021-03-08,12:0:1
186,241,2021-03-08,13:0:1
195,273,2021-03-08,14:0:1
193,303,2021-03-08,15:0:1
213,341,2021-03-08,16:0:1
226,365,2021-03-08,17:0:2
272,389,2021-03-08,18:0:2
285,426,2021-03-08,19:0:1
284,452,2021-03-08,20:0:1
307,438,2021-03-08,21:0:1
255,421,2021-03-08,22:0:1
218,398,2021-03-08,23:0:1
219,390,2021-03-09,0:0:1
225,380,2021-03-09,1:0:1
224,348,2021-03-09,2:0:1
205,359,2021-03-09,3:0:1
184,327,2021-03-09,4:0:1
156,286,2021-03-09,5:0:1
150,243,2021-03-09,6:0:1
159,244,2021-03-09,7:0:1
144,229,2021-03-09,8:0:1
154,221,2021-03-09,9:0:1
154,238,2021-03-09,10:0:1
139,238,2021-03-09,11:0:1
170,240,2021-03-09,12:0:1
177,265,2021-03-09,13:0:1
176,281,2021-03-09,14:0:1
201,328,2021-03-09,15:0:1
246,349,2021-03-09,16:0:1
258,374,2021-03-09,17:0:1
287,393,2021-03-09,18:0:1
334,414,2021-03-09,19:0:2
340,429,2021-03-09,20:0:2
314,424,2021-03-09,21:0:2
277,415,2021-03-09,22:0:1
230,372,2021-03-09,23:0:1
221,352,2021-03-10,0:0:1
237,356,2021-03-10,1:0:1
227,343,2021-03-10,2:0:1
209,340,2021-03-10,3:0:1
167,341,2021-03-10,4:0:1
151,292,2021-03-10,5:0:1
128,286,2021-03-10,6:0:1
122,265,2021-03-10,7:0:2
137,260,2021-03-10,8:0:2
162,261,2021-03-10,9:0:1
156,249,2021-03-10,10:0:1
162,270,2021-03-10,11:0:1
175,277,2021-03-10,12:0:1
174,284,2021-03-10,13:0:1
176,317,2021-03-10,14:0:1
199,330,2021-03-10,15:0:1
211,351,2021-03-10,16:0:1
222,397,2021-03-10,17:0:1
253,412,2021-03-10,18:0:1
265,433,2021-03-10,19:0:1
277,471,2021-03-10,20:0:1
284,454,2021-03-10,21:0:1
273,444,2021-03-10,22:0:2
232,390,2021-03-10,23:0:2
224,358,2021-03-11,0:0:2
226,375,2021-03-11,1:0:1
192,376,2021-03-11,2:0:1
190,348,2021-03-11,3:0:1
163,327,2021-03-11,4:0:1
137,301,2021-03-11,5:0:1
143,267,2021-03-11,6:0:1
147,250,2021-03-11,7:0:1
156,247,2021-03-11,8:0:1
155,252,2021-03-11,9:0:2
133,267,2021-03-11,10:0:2
132,276,2021-03-11,11:0:2
150,286,2021-03-11,12:0:1
169,272,2021-03-11,13:0:1
168,288,2021-03-11,14:0:1
53,121,2021-03-11,15:0:1
182,284,2021-03-11,16:0:1
237,353,2021-03-11,17:0:1

 

 

And below the monthly summary!

 

    OLD     NEW     TOTAL     GROWTH     OLD     NEW  
Date O-Min O-Avg O-Max N-Min N-Avg M-Max Min Average Max O-Growth N-Growth T-Growth Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max
01/02/2021 119 209.9167 352 213 443.2083 626 119 326.5625 626 -91.1667 -57.0417 -74.1042            
02/02/2021 146 213.25 287 302 431.4167 600 146 322.3333 600 3.333333 -11.7917 -4.22917 1 238.0476 531   449.256  
03/02/2021 145 217.75 319 287 440.5 620 145 329.125 620 4.5 9.083333 6.791667            
04/02/2021 0 209.2083 323 0 398.8333 558 0 304.0208 558 -8.54167 -41.6667 -25.1042            
05/02/2021 156 230 309 274 434.56 605 156 332.28 605 20.79167 35.72667 28.25917            
06/02/2021 160 261.6667 388 331 500.8333 697 160 381.25 697 31.66667 66.27333 48.97            
07/02/2021 174 285.25 405 367 514.1667 672 174 399.7083 672 23.58333 13.33333 18.45833            
08/02/2021 142 240.1667 334 271 433.6667 592 142 336.9167 592 -45.0833 -80.5 -62.7917            
09/02/2021 163 232.9167 319 325 434.0833 582 163 333.5 582 -7.25 0.416667 -3.41667 0 239.5655 405   450.949  
10/02/2021 153 235.9583 349 244 404.625 524 153 320.2917 524 3.041667 -29.4583 -13.2083            
11/02/2021 1 210.8333 318 0 378.2917 565 1 294.5625 565 -25.125 -26.3333 -25.7292            
12/02/2021 147 231.9583 339 293 420.625 556 147 326.2917 556 21.125 42.33333 31.72917            
13/02/2021 166 274.6667 481 311 443.375 562 166 359.0208 562 42.70833 22.75 32.72917            
14/02/2021 195 273.875 382 298 433.25 576 195 353.5625 576 -0.79167 -10.125 -5.45833            
15/02/2021 150 227.5 347 288 396.5 521 150 312 521 -46.375 -36.75 -41.5625            
16/02/2021 165 239.087 340 271 393.6087 515 165 316.3478 515 11.58696 -2.8913 4.347826 1 241.9827 481   410.0393  
17/02/2021 153 236.8333 350 264 384.2917 504 153 310.5625 504 -2.25362 -9.31703 -5.78533            
18/02/2021 1 223.6667 318 0 347.125 484 1 285.3958 484 -13.1667 -37.1667 -25.1667            
19/02/2021 152 254.9167 350 254 388.875 512 152 321.8958 512 31.25 41.75 36.5            
20/02/2021 149 280.875 410 239 402.9583 554 149 341.9167 554 25.95833 14.08333 20.02083            
21/02/2021 168 258.8333 363 306 424.625 551 168 341.7292 551 -22.0417 21.66667 -0.1875            
22/02/2021 131 221.5833 327 252 395.1667 561 131 308.375 561 -37.25 -29.4583 -33.3542            
23/02/2021 131 211.8333 329 242 353.5833 492 131 282.7083 492 -9.75 -41.5833 -25.6667 1 241.2202 410   385.2321  
24/02/2021 130 210.4583 337 234 362.375 497 130 286.4167 497 -1.375 8.791667 3.708333            
25/02/2021 108 193.4167 306 192 331.5833 460 108 262.5 460 -17.0417 -30.7917 -23.9167            
26/02/2021 122 215.6667 301 229 347.5 462 122 281.5833 462 22.25 15.91667 19.08333         Monthly  
27/02/2021 142 244.3333 367 229 375.6667 519 142 310 519 28.66667 28.16667 28.41667       Old Total New
28/02/2021 152 265.25 496 294 395.5833 496 152 330.4167 496 20.91667 19.91667 20.41667       236.1311 674.0846 437.9536
                                     
                                     
                                     
                                1.010344   0.940962
                          % Increase/Decrease 1.034379   -5.9038

 

 

So, as we can see; the monthly population is still dropping in total on average; the old cluster is roughly stable, which is a sign of stable health.  Normally a decline occurs during this period, so the evidence now suggests the old cluster has stabilised in this rather ill state.  The old cluster, I would say, is no longer at a critical point, provided nothing tips the balance it may remain stable or slowly drop.

 

The new cluster is also reaching a stable point, the decline this month is much less noted (13% vs 6%) and here too stability is apparently approaching

 

Overall the game's health is still in decline though, its lifeblood still bleeding out.  However, the evidence suggests that wurm is now nearly reaching population equillibrium; influx is now matching outgoing if both clusters are taken together.  This may change in the next month, as the data indicates that the population of both clusters are still declining (averages are 223 and 227 for the last 2 complete weeks in the old cluster, and 364 and 353 in the new cluster).  This decline is somewhat expected though, and may not indicate anything amiss.

 

At current, wurm's population is about the same as the top 2 pay-to-play MUDs on http://mudstats.com/Browse; which is quite interesting in and of itself given how much of wurm's genus is that of the MUD!  Getting reliable MMO data from commercial games is difficult, but compared to many other titles Wurm definitely feels rather like a "Ghost Town MMORPG" (though, that term isn't actually formally defined (which invites a paper to provide a solid set of criteria!), I will settle for the notion that one can log on for over an hour without seeing another player) at the moment on some of the larger servers.  Something interesting unrelated to the data is that I'm hearing a lot about people moving to smaller servers for community; whether this is just because my sample is skiewed or because we are genuinely seeing a "cluster collapse" effect (smaller alliances/guilds fall apart and move towards one large server-wide alliance/guild) remains to be seen...

 

Edited by Etherdrifter
Punctuation!
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I will just quote myself here:

8CuPF2B.png
What they did instead:
- nothing of the above expect stealth nerfing rare creation on all accounts and not particularly on non-oremium


This was mostly a troll answer, but...

Yeah, this game still feels like a giant middle finger to all new players,  even if you resisted through the cluknky old graphics and unwelcoming environment long enough to actually starting to enjoy the game, as soon as you hi 20 on any skill you're just getting another giant middle finger that pushes you further away from the game way too soon.

Anyway, steam opportunity is gone, at this point just give us back RMT and deal with steam later , at least we didn't sacrifice the most unique feature of this game for nothing.

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41 minutes ago, Davih said:

I will just quote myself here:

8CuPF2B.png
What they did instead:
- nothing of the above expect stealth nerfing rare creation on all accounts and not particularly on non-oremium


This was mostly a troll answer, but...

Yeah, this game still feels like a giant middle finger to all new players,  even if you resisted through the cluknky old graphics and unwelcoming environment long enough to actually starting to enjoy the game, as soon as you hi 20 on any skill you're just getting another giant middle finger that pushes you further away from the game way too soon.

Anyway, steam opportunity is gone, at this point just give us back RMT and deal with steam later , at least we didn't sacrifice the most unique feature of this game for nothing.

Nice ideas, however if they implemented the skillcap change I think we would see a vast dropoff in subs and with that a large decrease in operating budget. I'm not sure a few whales can keep the lights on and pay devs to continue to work the code. Deed costs could use some tweaking, but lowering it too much would just lead to servers with less or no desirable land available to noobs, which defeats the purpose. Changing the 3 month to 1 month may be a good idea though. It seems that Marks is a way to reward players for subbing, so moving those to the shop completely subverts that and removes any loyalty type items. Not a bad thing to discuss, but then something else will need to be implemented to reward players for subbing (and then we would eventually see these same complaints about those rewards).

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Posted (edited)

I don't think the game would have seen a large drop-off of subs, as i said back then when i posted this, this game is divided in 2 kind of players:

- Those who don't mind paying real money for their premium, and will continue to do so as long as they play.
- Those who will strive to earn their money in the game to play for free, and that won't be lost money, anyway.

I doubt that a chance like this one would have converted many players from paying for premium to not paying it anymore.

a slight chance might happen, but that is also why the marks shop/skins fully purchaseable was intended as a way to kinda make up for that money loss without ruining the game too much.

All this anyway, would have been a good idea before steam launch, which was when i posted that originally.

My current suggestion is : just put RMT back (not accounts), at least the game will retain one of his most uniques features and some players might get back, steam hype is pretty much over anyway.

Edited by Davih

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48 minutes ago, Davih said:

I don't think the game would have seen a large drop-off of subs, as i said back then when i posted this, this game is divided in 2 kind of players:
- Those who don't mind paying real money for their premium, and will continue to do so as long as they play.

Not quite. I can only speak for myself but my major motivation for my sub over the past year is my skills. Taking skills out of the equation I most likely would have subbed once for found my deed and get the "never delete" flag on my character. It has been nice to get marks and sleep powder but I'm not sure what I have gotten from my prem status otherwise has been worth paying for. That said, maybe I an the outlier and not the base player.

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Well, they could have thrown in a 15 to 50% skill gain bonus for being premium aswell, way better than limitating to 20.

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Posted (edited)

lowering A LOT the skilling for new free players.. and giving a boost to premiums is a valid point;

freemium is also a privilege in a subscription model game.. if you have really bad skilling .. you'll find a way to prem up and start playing 'normally'

tripple/quadripple actions for old players who depremmed.. and add other nerfs to actions without timers.. and they'll also want to be active on premium when playing.. it's all a matter of finding the right incentive that makes sense to get you in the right path. *cough* prem up *cough*

 

shop and all sorts of boosts/skins/unique items or recipes to craft or own such.. is another valid path to chase to monetize the game.. sadly with low population.. there's not that much to scale with this.. and if the game gets too many players.. bottlenecks with performance emerge.. 

Edited by Finnn

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Posted (edited)

It is plain wrong to continue the "business philosophy" of punishing players for not premming, worst of all is torturing them with "go prem" molestations flashing on screen once any skill or characteristic hits the cap. Not that denial of riding (ok except cows) and vehicles other than rowing boat is any better. Such "pedagogics" with the whip is antediluvial and has the sole effect of driving out non premium players. A player who is kept inside the game, even when not paying for some period of time, is more likely to stay than one permanently frustrated.

 

A skill cap of 50, together with e.g. a characteristics cap of 30 would not hurt, rather it would help to keep and hook up more players. Whether or not f2p priests should be made possible I do not know, personally I would vote against.

Edited by Ekcin
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11 minutes ago, Ekcin said:

It is plain wrong to continue the "business philosophy" of punishing players for not premming, worst of all is torturing them with "go prem" molestations flashing on screen once any skill or characteristic hits the cap. Not that denial of riding (ok except cows) and vehicles other than rowing boat is any better. Such "pedagogics" with the whip is antediluvial and has the sole effect of driving out non premium players. A player who is kept inside the game, even when not paying for some period of time, is more likely to stay than one permanently frustrated.

 

A skill cap of 50, together with e.g. a characteristics cap of 30 would not hurt, rather it would help to keep and hook up more players. Whether or not f2p priests should be made possible I do not know, personally I would vote against.

 

Bring that in and I wont have to Prem ever again.

 

Now I do agree its an outdated model and I think maybe a Skill cap of 30 would be good and opens up the game for freebie players to enjoy the game and get a feel before going prem, atm so many people join, cant ride and just quit as to quote one person " whats the point of this stupid game if i cant do anything" ( saw that a lot when helping out at starter town on Melody).

 

People also have said the costs of wurm are the same as a tripe A title ( deed costs plus prem ) I cant really argue as i spent more on wurm than all my other games put together.

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Posted (edited)

I had a look into my logs, and it seems that I had more than 5 skills over 50 after 3 months of premium, and in excess of 15 after a year (at least 1 over 90). No idea how you play.

 

The complaints about premium (and deed) cost are extremely exaggerated. I never paid a single RL cent for deed and upkeep. Ok, I don't have a 20€/mth upkeep deed, and would not know what to do with. As to premium, ok my main char plus 3 priests costs a bit, more than a single account on a tripe (like that) A title. But that is my decision.

Edited by Ekcin
typo

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Logic:

If a world feels empty, and one has gone there for a social gaming experience, it tends to remain empty.

 

The evidence above suggests that it's quite true too.

 

The idea of "the premium player paying for the free one" is just marketing masking as an ego stroke for the customer.

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what people really fail to realize is the free players populate the world which in effect keeps more players, as its very common for people to leave a game because it feels dead or empty.  one of the core reasons i dont play anymore is because theres no one to play with, i cant stand this game as a solo game, i started 11 years ago and back then the game despite being absolute dog crap compared to now with all the fancy bells and whistles was so much more fun because i played with people.  i log in to epic to disband a deed and see no one in the only alliance on the server.  i port back to independence to log off in the biggest alliance on the second most populated original freedom cluster server and see no one.  if there was even just 10 f2p names playing in those lists as sad as that is that would make things actually feel alive

 

in the steam launch discussion thread i suggested a f2p model like runescapes and rolf liked it.  runescape allows f2p to get skills to max, just some are locked behind p2p and f2p lose access to the best skilling methods and the best gear.  and yet as i write this there are 130k players online across osrs and rs3, and according to an article from jan 2020 they have over 1.1 million members.  im sure its safe to tell the anti-f2p people that more f2p won't kill the game, but rather something far more obvious that has already been doing so for many years

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Posted (edited)

Runescape doesn't feature land "ownership" and terraforming. It's easy to pack millions of players on the same pixel when the land isn't being considered. Wurm could go ftp, and then charge for everything "extra" like recipes, special skills like shipbuilding, high end ores, etc. Gotta pay the devs somehow. I know several people, including myself, who HATE ftp games because everything is monetized and maximized for profit. What some people fail to realize is that it takes money to run a company, and free players don't contribute. They do complain about everything they can't have though. In the end, there has to be a balance between free and paid players, and an incentive to subscribe.

Edited by SirMuttley

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1 hour ago, SirMuttley said:

Runescape doesn't feature land "ownership" and terraforming.

 

yeah it just has years and years worth of actual content packed in instead 🤡

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, MrGARY said:

im sure its safe to tell the anti-f2p people that more f2p won't kill the game, but rather something far more obvious that has already been doing so for many years

 

Sadly agree. F2p bring in something just as valuable as euros which indirectly will bring in more money. 

 

They bring in content. They bring in people to interact with, people to have fun with, banter, chat, help out or them helping you out, etc. Not having a ghost town basically as Gary pointed out. Any new f2p player is a potential recommendation for someone who will pay for prem or silvers via the wurm shop. 

 

If wurm's to actually have a big change for the better, the entire monetization model has to be reworked. Not sure if the new corporate overlords will agree, but if they dont, there's one thing corporate is, that's being shortsighted. 

Edited by elentari

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