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Etherdrifter

Population Data So Far

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If monty python could save us, would be nice. I do hope something is done about player retention and events added to make the grind bearable.

 

I think one of the main issues is the cyclical nature of skills. Aka = you get some basic skills up but the reward doesn't seem that impactful when there are many players way above you that can make you better stuff quickly. Would be nice if we had events : puzzles, dungeon crawlies (maybe a server with quests? something like legend of grimrock 2?) where all skills are tested. Give players few resources, and they have to make due on a deserted island.

 

Give people a few sticks some rocks and let them survive on a dangerous island filled with dragons, ogres and zombies. Step by step take them deeper to the heart of the island where everything is tested. Hidden traps, lava pits, there are limited iron veins to make stuff, things like that. I dunno, maybe just ranting but I miss surprising events. Most of the game's pleasant surprises for me came from player content. Such as a guy randomly putting 700 gravestones and goblin skulls around his pallisade walls on the perimeter of his deed. He had a nice creepy theme with that deed.

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Quoting Etherdrifter:

Quote

The old cluster, as can be seen, has grown in average population from last month; which makes sense if you look at where the main spikes are (26th and 27th, the days most people are off).    Overall, the old cluster is still growing somewhat; though that is to be expected at this time of year:  if we look at the data from last year (an average of 275, up by 4% from the previous month); one could attribute this growth to holiday periods, community events (such as impalongs) and possibly even christmas gifts.  However, this is only a hypothesis.

Interesting example of ex falso quodlibet.

 

First, the "averages". In empirical sciences 001, long before you start to delve into inference statistics, you learn about the pitfalls of averaging, btw. something conventional wisdom knows as well. Remember standing with one bare foot on a red hot plate, with the other on deep freezed ice thus in convenient condition on average? But seriously: What does a number of 1 or 0 participants (on whole cluster, even both) tell us? Right, that there has been a server reboot and outage, and that Etherdrifters 1hr samples hit it by chance. If it is a 4hr outage like at least one of the fixes lately, there will  be 4 of them, or nearly. If there was a reboot withing two samples, only some decline remains. Look at Niarja Live "server populations" to figure. To average those figures is no more sensible than averaging with the age of my or your actual girl- or boyfriend. 

 

Second, 2019 vs 2020. Let us have a look. Here some figures from my login data . Note that they are somewhat deliberate random samples showing some patterns which may be misleading as my login and uptime habits are not the same over time, nor are the daytimes shown as at least in 19 I have been on different continents and timezones sometimes (btw I consider attempts of surveilling my habits from those data as fairly nosy and impolite). All those factors notwithstanding, here the data:

 

Spoiler

 

December 2019


[09:06:53] 51 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (216 totally in Wurm).
[17:09:24] 79 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (263 totally in Wurm).
[10:33:46] 49 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (136 totally in Wurm).
[02:58:51] 65 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (270 totally in Wurm).
[12:22:49] 32 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (133 totally in Wurm).
[09:16:06] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (99 totally in Wurm).
[12:26:40] 47 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (107 totally in Wurm).
[12:43:30] 46 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (110 totally in Wurm).
[08:54:21] 48 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (129 totally in Wurm).
[22:01:02] 82 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (250 totally in Wurm).
[07:29:54] 47 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (162 totally in Wurm).
[12:53:27] 38 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (135 totally in Wurm).
[18:36:56] 58 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (190 totally in Wurm).
[07:38:37] 37 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (157 totally in Wurm).
[18:25:36] 81 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (290 totally in Wurm).
[07:50:03] 32 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (174 totally in Wurm).
[15:07:09] 45 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (175 totally in Wurm).
[16:10:40] 47 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (220 totally in Wurm).
[16:21:06] 47 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (222 totally in Wurm).
[18:43:06] 56 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (223 totally in Wurm).
[18:57:30] 60 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (227 totally in Wurm).
[19:48:05] 76 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (251 totally in Wurm).
[10:22:14] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (138 totally in Wurm).
[02:01:35] 71 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (223 totally in Wurm).
[02:07:21] 71 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (220 totally in Wurm).
[09:02:47] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (126 totally in Wurm).
[21:07:15] 75 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (236 totally in Wurm).
[09:10:31] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (118 totally in Wurm).
[22:46:36] 88 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (245 totally in Wurm).
[09:15:25] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (128 totally in Wurm).
[11:18:12] 35 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (128 totally in Wurm).
[19:54:29] 88 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (307 totally in Wurm).
[20:18:23] 94 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (312 totally in Wurm).
[07:36:35] 35 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (148 totally in Wurm).
[19:32:50] 82 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (324 totally in Wurm).
[22:51:41] 92 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (398 totally in Wurm).
[06:47:21] 47 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (148 totally in Wurm).
[15:00:49] 61 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (169 totally in Wurm).
[21:14:30] 100 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (286 totally in Wurm)
[08:42:35] 55 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (121 totally in Wurm).
[06:09:45] 60 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (138 totally in Wurm).
[21:03:35] 65 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (212 totally in Wurm).
[06:30:52] 54 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (142 totally in Wurm).
[15:29:33] 44 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (122 totally in Wurm).
[23:29:56] 70 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (207 totally in Wurm).
[04:52:28] 73 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (201 totally in Wurm).
[06:05:47] 44 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (151 totally in Wurm).
[12:32:10] 55 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (125 totally in Wurm).
[12:52:09] 56 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (127 totally in Wurm).
[02:02:25] 56 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (212 totally in Wurm).
[07:03:25] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (153 totally in Wurm).
[16:20:13] 45 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (138 totally in Wurm).
[07:10:11] 55 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (207 totally in Wurm).
[14:10:02] 62 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (186 totally in Wurm).
[07:06:09] 29 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (144 totally in Wurm).
[02:21:39] 74 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (233 totally in Wurm).
[09:48:36] 40 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (130 totally in Wurm).
[10:27:06] 39 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (127 totally in Wurm).
[20:04:50] 79 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (268 totally in Wurm).
[08:49:01] 35 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (132 totally in Wurm).
[14:21:39] 60 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (171 totally in Wurm).
[09:09:53] 45 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (150 totally in Wurm).
[15:27:00] 86 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (243 totally in Wurm).
[22:50:50] 120 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (389 totally in Wurm)
[00:28:52] 92 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (346 totally in Wurm).
[01:03:05] 96 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (312 totally in Wurm).
[05:40:54] 67 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (204 totally in Wurm).
[18:44:39] 107 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (327 totally in Wurm)
[09:56:05] 32 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (125 totally in Wurm).
[22:23:57] 95 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (320 totally in Wurm).
[09:53:58] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (141 totally in Wurm).

 

December 2020

 

[10:58:21] 59 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (662 totally in Wurm).
[14:13:33] 66 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (689 totally in Wurm).
[21:41:21] 112 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1157 totally in Wurm).
[12:22:13] 62 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (606 totally in Wurm).
[18:59:57] 121 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1023 totally in Wurm).
[10:37:05] 71 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (563 totally in Wurm).
[19:03:01] 112 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1049 totally in Wurm).
[08:32:34] 76 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (645 totally in Wurm).
[08:38:33] 78 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (643 totally in Wurm).
[18:01:41] 120 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1168 totally in Wurm).
[20:27:28] 102 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1302 totally in Wurm).
[09:08:51] 96 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (677 totally in Wurm).
[20:00:51] 134 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1163 totally in Wurm).
[09:13:05] 66 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (549 totally in Wurm).
[18:16:38] 98 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (949 totally in Wurm).
[07:29:51] 65 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (611 totally in Wurm).
[07:34:57] 65 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (618 totally in Wurm).
[20:18:06] 111 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1013 totally in Wurm).
[09:10:53] 79 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (573 totally in Wurm).
[20:18:48] 90 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1001 totally in Wurm).
[08:41:32] 61 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (538 totally in Wurm).
[18:36:01] 115 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (878 totally in Wurm).
[05:44:28] 77 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (690 totally in Wurm).
[19:17:01] 130 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (935 totally in Wurm).
[08:28:05] 84 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (580 totally in Wurm).
[20:40:38] 158 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1133 totally in Wurm).
[08:31:29] 79 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (587 totally in Wurm).
[21:27:10] 150 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1120 totally in Wurm).
[08:33:00] 72 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (480 totally in Wurm).
[21:45:14] 153 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (990 totally in Wurm).
[09:13:09] 90 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (566 totally in Wurm).
[10:21:54] 84 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (530 totally in Wurm).
[12:34:37] 91 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (510 totally in Wurm).
[21:25:46] 139 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (948 totally in Wurm).
[21:57:25] 142 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (969 totally in Wurm).
[04:34:30] 112 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (725 totally in Wurm).
[08:30:43] 83 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (519 totally in Wurm).
[16:02:09] 66 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (491 totally in Wurm).
[07:35:16] 66 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (503 totally in Wurm).
[10:21:29] 81 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (532 totally in Wurm).
[16:20:15] 140 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (870 totally in Wurm).
[19:09:55] 146 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (995 totally in Wurm).
[09:18:56] 86 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (582 totally in Wurm).
[20:13:33] 146 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1071 totally in Wurm).
[09:13:34] 71 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (507 totally in Wurm).
[08:08:17] 67 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (518 totally in Wurm).
[08:13:52] 88 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (547 totally in Wurm).
[14:38:35] 9 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (145 totally in Wurm).
[07:20:44] 79 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (679 totally in Wurm).
[14:48:14] 12 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (144 totally in Wurm).
[06:32:55] 70 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (605 totally in Wurm).
[06:47:44] 67 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (595 totally in Wurm).
[11:01:52] 68 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (577 totally in Wurm).
[21:56:51] 130 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1076 totally in Wurm).
[08:42:53] 63 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (553 totally in Wurm).
[16:07:49] 90 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (792 totally in Wurm).
[20:41:29] 90 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1173 totally in Wurm).
[08:16:13] 60 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (495 totally in Wurm).
[09:37:31] 51 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (489 totally in Wurm).
[15:44:26] 31 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (313 totally in Wurm).
[18:01:16] 43 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (406 totally in Wurm).
[08:41:41] 80 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (570 totally in Wurm).
[15:43:42] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (480 totally in Wurm).
[09:26:18] 58 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (479 totally in Wurm).

 

 

I do not claim that my logon data are reflecting "the real population". But it seems obvious that the population on Xanadu in December 2020 is considerably higher than in 2019. And the "totally in Wurm" of 2019 are considerably even below the questionable "averages" Etherdrifter presented.

 

That said, I want to mention that the high figures above 500 on the "old servers" stem from public dragon slayings on Pristine and Release. Of course, quite a number of alts (estimated 100+) had been logged on for this purpose to collect bloods. 

 

Further on, the data are interesting anyway, and thanks for. But as to the "dying", "free fall" etc., I fully agree with Stargaze.

Edited by Ekcin
typo

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2 hours ago, Ekcin said:

Interesting example of ex falso quodlibet.

Ekcin is attempting to sound intelligent and is really just saying "you can prove anything you like with a false premise" which really just boils down to "I think you're wrong and want to intimidate my audience with verbose language because I have no solid counter-argument".

 

2 hours ago, Ekcin said:

you learn about the pitfalls of averaging

Averages with small samples often go awry, but with large samples averages can be quite informative.  One should certainly be careful with averages (that is what we actually teach about them), but to dismiss them entirely would be folly.

 

2 hours ago, Ekcin said:

What does a number of 1 or 0 participants (on whole cluster, even both) tell us? Right, that there has been a server reboot and outage, and that Etherdrifters 1hr samples hit it by chance. If it is a 4hr outage like at least one of the fixes lately, there will  be 4 of them, or nearly. If there was a reboot withing two samples, only some decline remains. Look at Niarja Live "server populations" to figure. To average those figures is no more sensible than averaging with the age of my or your actual girl- or boyfriend.

It is good practice to report ALL data, not just the bits you cherry pick; any study that does not provide all data (including values later removed in the analysis) is already on dodgy moral ground.  Feel free to calculate some new averages with those values omitted; I've given you the data to do so.  Though, at the same time, you'd also probably want to ignore values near slayings due to the "alt count" you mentioned.

 

2 hours ago, Ekcin said:

I  But it seems obvious that the population on Xanadu in December 2020 is considerably higher than in 2019.

Xanadu is not wurm's only server; trying to do that form of comparison neglects the impact of shrinking population upon group location (for example, players clustering together is easier on smaller servers).  You could argue that Xanadu's population is higher than it was this time last year, I can show you some logs where it was over 500 on its own and argue it has still dropped in the long run.

 

2 hours ago, Ekcin said:

But as to the "dying", "free fall" etc., I fully agree with Stargaze.

And you have seen my comment upon that.  I look forward to the day there is enough evidence for us both to agree ^_^

 

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Polemics are not helpful. I tried to restrain mine (maybe not enough). In fact, It is pointless to "average" on participation. Looking at https://www.niarja.com/universes/online/clusters/freedom

gives a good visual impression of daily participation (it is based on 15 minutes samples btw.) . It shows that there is a consistent daytime and workdays sample where participation is peaking during CET evening, with a secondary peak during North America evening, and an off peak during Europe morning to early afternoon, bit less expressive on weekends. That is in no way surprising and follows participation patterns of every online game.

 

Taking extremes out is a sound technique in empirical sciences. This applies to some extent, btw. to both, public unique slayings as well as server downtimes, with the exception that server downtimes mean zero regardless how many users are active as they simply cannot log in. Participation maxima during events, on the other hand, indicate how many players may login at one time (not all of them anyway). So averagings among both figures are misleading and unscientific.

 

Statistics are never more or other than a numeric model of empirical relations. Every numeric transformation must be double checked whether it is done without violating the empirical reality, performed salva veritate as science demands. Averaging downtime zero with unique slaying peak fails this prerequisite certainly.

 

As to doom prediction I leave everyone with her or his pet theory. I have none, but considering that now about 1100 players are on peak in WO compared to 300 to 600 a few years ago, I fail to be desperate on Wurm's future.

Edited by Ekcin
typo

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16 hours ago, elentari said:

Too few players = less revenue = less money to develop, enhance, fix bugs, add content, market, etc for  Wurm. 

 

Which is why they absolutely should be leveraging WU. 

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2 hours ago, TheTrickster said:

Too few players = less revenue = less money to develop, enhance, fix bugs, add content, market, etc for  Wurm. 

 

 

Less money? It's the 21st century, you don't need money to make games.

 

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On 1/6/2021 at 2:36 PM, Stargrace said:

These threads are cute. I've been playing for over 13 years now, and they pop up all the time. "The game is dying!" "How will it possibly survive!" - and yet, it does, and will continue to do so.

 

There were years when 200 players total (including alts, NOT unique) for SFI would have been a 'good' day in wurm.

 

"The Great gamble" - you make it sound like more than it is. Nothing has failed and to deem it as such after a TINY example of the life of Wurm, is doing the game, its loyal developers, and players, a disservice.

 

 

 

 



the problem here is that "dying" to you doesn't mean what it means for others: if you're satisfied with 200 total accounts, many of which could be alts, being online across the what, 8 different servers in SFI (and i'll ignore epic here too) then i don't think "dead" means anything to you beyond "game shuts down"

if the game hits pits like this, the game is dead. If it maintains this way, the game has no hope for improvement. The only people playing with it are the people satisfied with the status quo- the only fine thing about that is the fact that so little money is actually required to keep this game running that it can potentially keep running with just that many people basically until the end of time lmao.

Steam wasn't a gamble. It was a play to raise money and impress investors. I'm waiting to see what they do with that money, now.

 

Quote

  It was a great gamble because it wagered a lot of development time and alienating existing players by adding new servers 

I question how much 'dev time' actually was needed to create the steam servers. The most complicated aspect of it seems to have been managing the database, but the devs that existing have very different jobs tackling different areas of the code- and again, we have no full time contracted devs. It's the same excuse as always- for one reason or another (and maybe a good one, maybe not) the devs can't seem to actually commit much time to make many changes.

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22 hours ago, Etherdrifter said:

The data is currently demonstrating that said gamble has failed, much to the chagrin of the "everything is great" crowd.

gamble failed because devs didnt roll the dice. Q4 update happened to be a total disappointment. almost 0 new content since steam release. is it abandonware, or "proper mmo"? it looks like nobody really knows what should be a next step, and instead of real changes we are getting promises only.

Edited by Votip
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7 hours ago, RainRain said:

he problem here is that "dying" to you doesn't mean what it means for others: if you're satisfied with 200 total accounts, many of which could be alts, being online across the what, 8 different servers in SFI (and i'll ignore epic here too) then i don't think "dead" means anything to you beyond "game shuts down"

 

I think perhaps a variable in these kinds of player feedback is "How a wurmian defines Wurm content".

 

Let's take two possibilities to start with.

 

Option A : A player creates his own content for himself. Perhaps he is content to just grinding his skills, building up his solo deed on a mountain or a lakeside, and ocasionally participating in trade or public slaying. But for all intents and purposes most of his game time is played in a Single Player Mode rather than an MMO.

 

Option B : Players like me. I depend and rely on the content provided by others not just the one I create myself for myself.

 

Example of content created by others :  1.  Impalongs

2. A neighbour asking me if he can harvest my grapeyards. I say yes and bless his grape loving soul in the process. (this requires having active players)

3. Wandering about and see a noob in distress looking for directions or help with a troll.

4. A player asking in chat help with an issue.

5. Someone asking a particular favor such as helping him out with getting his corpse that has been stuck on a mountain slope.

6. Pvp = self explanatory.

7. Public projects.

8. Roaming the map and seeing new people build up their deeds for the first time and offering some hint of advice if they need it.

 

I could go on, but those examples all require having a critical mass of players to offer that content.


This isn't WOW or some other games that have pre programmed seasonal events that give content to the players.

 

Wurm is a game that is 99% player generated content. The devs provide the infrastructure, servers and the gate to the game. 99% of what happens in game, from terraforming, highways. deeds, everything is up to the players.

 

Without players , people like me see Wurm as  ghost town and for the love of me a lot of content will simply die out.

 

So while players that belong to "option A = need only their own content" can live in wurm with a low population, the rest which i suspect make up a far greater percentage, will not be able to stay in the game without a healthy population.

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@Elentari: Though being one of those "hermits" happy when the next neighbours and allys are off all least 150+ tiles I agree that a more populated server is more fun than a non populated one. But the "ghost town" doom lust is not mine. Xanadu is aliive, so is Independence, and when you observe the smaller servers you can see that their maxima are often fair above Xanadu minima and some of them sometimes even eclipse Independence maxima. In summary. the reports of our death are thoroughly exaggerated, and feasting of doomsaying has some taste of perversion at least to me. 

 

Now, I fully understand your pain and frustration about Epic. Epic certainly will never be what it once was, and one can blame some design decisions of the devs (Epic chars leaving to Freedom) for. But that is crying over spilled milk.

 

What I see though, is that Epic is extremely underrated as a hunting and adventure area for all Freedomers. We  enjoy the privilege that all our skills are boosted by the epic curve. We are powerful on Epic. With the help of some Epic veterans, we may be geared up soon, and if not we may create decent gear ourselves.

 

Epic should be redefined as a wild adventure area for Freedomers, helped by Epic veterans. Of course we must face and embrace the chance of factional brawls, at least when we cleaned some of the uniques. But for everyone wanting to learn about unique and Valrei monster fight, Epic is unique and outstanding, and be it for a hunting weekend.

 

Edit: To add that, Elentari: When I judge from my friends and allies, about a third of them never visited Epic, or only for a superficial view at "ghost servers".  Epic still is more than that. We could cross over, close rifts, hunt uniques, find monsters never seen on Freedom, maybe clash with the other factions. Epic has huge potential, right now. We should not give it up lightly.

Edited by Ekcin

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Another data dump for those wishing to keep track!

 

Spoiler

329,570,2021-01-05,22:0:1
288,545,2021-01-05,23:0:2
273,517,2021-01-06,0:0:2
263,503,2021-01-06,1:0:2
260,485,2021-01-06,2:0:1
235,433,2021-01-06,3:0:1
215,401,2021-01-06,4:0:1
180,354,2021-01-06,5:0:1
157,295,2021-01-06,6:0:1
170,263,2021-01-06,7:0:1
155,274,2021-01-06,8:0:1
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180,389,2021-01-25,6:0:1
159,346,2021-01-25,7:0:2
147,310,2021-01-25,8:0:1
146,334,2021-01-25,9:0:1
142,309,2021-01-25,10:0:1
141,305,2021-01-25,11:0:1
149,326,2021-01-25,12:0:1
170,351,2021-01-25,13:0:1
192,369,2021-01-25,14:0:1
206,427,2021-01-25,15:0:1
251,472,2021-01-25,16:0:1
278,521,2021-01-25,17:0:1
300,568,2021-01-25,18:0:1
296,577,2021-01-25,19:0:1
301,544,2021-01-25,20:0:1
307,572,2021-01-25,21:0:2
314,606,2021-01-25,22:0:2
301,557,2021-01-25,23:0:2
276,532,2021-01-26,0:0:1
269,522,2021-01-26,1:0:1
246,530,2021-01-26,2:0:1
223,498,2021-01-26,3:0:1
214,460,2021-01-26,4:0:1
197,437,2021-01-26,5:0:1
182,415,2021-01-26,6:0:1
153,373,2021-01-26,7:0:1
133,366,2021-01-26,8:0:2
143,380,2021-01-26,9:0:2
174,355,2021-01-26,10:0:2
180,336,2021-01-26,11:0:1
177,342,2021-01-26,12:0:1
187,380,2021-01-26,13:0:1
197,423,2021-01-26,14:0:1
226,467,2021-01-26,15:0:1
275,522,2021-01-26,16:0:1
277,548,2021-01-26,17:0:1
298,603,2021-01-26,18:0:1
322,611,2021-01-26,19:0:1
300,599,2021-01-26,20:0:1
332,611,2021-01-26,21:0:1
317,582,2021-01-26,22:0:1
286,542,2021-01-26,23:0:1
254,535,2021-01-27,0:0:1
241,516,2021-01-27,1:0:2
247,506,2021-01-27,2:0:2
218,509,2021-01-27,3:0:2
198,457,2021-01-27,4:0:1
159,393,2021-01-27,5:0:1
152,360,2021-01-27,6:0:1
157,338,2021-01-27,7:0:1
158,321,2021-01-27,8:0:1
144,314,2021-01-27,9:0:1
157,340,2021-01-27,10:0:1
158,355,2021-01-27,11:0:2
174,369,2021-01-27,12:0:2
175,381,2021-01-27,13:0:2
185,372,2021-01-27,14:0:2
182,412,2021-01-27,15:0:1
219,460,2021-01-27,16:0:1
262,503,2021-01-27,17:0:1
296,562,2021-01-27,18:0:1
313,590,2021-01-27,19:0:1
308,577,2021-01-27,20:0:1
298,598,2021-01-27,21:0:1
284,600,2021-01-27,22:0:1
275,550,2021-01-27,23:0:1
268,547,2021-01-28,0:0:1
246,560,2021-01-28,1:0:1
247,564,2021-01-28,2:0:1
233,528,2021-01-28,3:0:1
220,496,2021-01-28,4:0:1
197,422,2021-01-28,5:0:2
169,406,2021-01-28,6:0:2
164,344,2021-01-28,7:0:1
140,327,2021-01-28,8:0:1
134,304,2021-01-28,9:0:1
144,302,2021-01-28,10:0:1
158,358,2021-01-28,11:0:1
176,343,2021-01-28,12:0:1
195,366,2021-01-28,13:0:1
1,0,2021-01-28,14:0:1
1,0,2021-01-28,15:0:1
165,310,2021-01-28,16:0:2
239,441,2021-01-28,17:0:2
283,488,2021-01-28,18:0:2
326,527,2021-01-28,19:0:1
344,561,2021-01-28,20:0:1
329,552,2021-01-28,21:0:1
336,523,2021-01-28,22:0:1
300,521,2021-01-28,23:0:1
277,511,2021-01-29,0:0:1
263,500,2021-01-29,1:0:1
258,501,2021-01-29,2:0:1
224,486,2021-01-29,3:0:1
198,437,2021-01-29,4:0:1
177,404,2021-01-29,5:0:1
161,350,2021-01-29,6:0:1
144,298,2021-01-29,7:0:1
150,289,2021-01-29,8:0:1
153,298,2021-01-29,9:0:1
144,273,2021-01-29,10:0:1
166,277,2021-01-29,11:0:1
177,292,2021-01-29,12:0:1
167,321,2021-01-29,13:0:1
184,371,2021-01-29,14:0:1
219,419,2021-01-29,15:0:1
226,433,2021-01-29,16:0:1
269,480,2021-01-29,17:0:1
296,513,2021-01-29,18:0:1
303,510,2021-01-29,19:0:1
318,526,2021-01-29,20:0:2
344,556,2021-01-29,21:0:2
323,558,2021-01-29,22:0:2
307,539,2021-01-29,23:0:1
293,529,2021-01-30,0:0:1
288,492,2021-01-30,1:0:1
286,495,2021-01-30,2:0:1
273,473,2021-01-30,3:0:1
248,440,2021-01-30,4:0:1
186,438,2021-01-30,5:0:1
179,390,2021-01-30,6:0:1
191,365,2021-01-30,7:0:2
180,316,2021-01-30,8:0:2
184,332,2021-01-30,9:0:1
189,356,2021-01-30,10:0:1
178,387,2021-01-30,11:0:1
192,374,2021-01-30,12:0:1
207,402,2021-01-30,13:0:1
265,439,2021-01-30,14:0:1
304,497,2021-01-30,15:0:1
361,513,2021-01-30,16:0:1
383,572,2021-01-30,17:0:1
438,623,2021-01-30,18:0:1
473,651,2021-01-30,19:0:1
451,653,2021-01-30,20:0:1
416,638,2021-01-30,21:0:1
385,641,2021-01-30,22:0:2
383,612,2021-01-30,23:0:2
353,599,2021-01-31,0:0:2
320,572,2021-01-31,1:0:1
329,553,2021-01-31,2:0:1
295,528,2021-01-31,3:0:1
275,481,2021-01-31,4:0:1
254,456,2021-01-31,5:0:1
232,418,2021-01-31,6:0:1
213,372,2021-01-31,7:0:1
187,335,2021-01-31,8:0:2
188,328,2021-01-31,9:0:2
189,353,2021-01-31,10:0:2
207,371,2021-01-31,11:0:1
219,377,2021-01-31,12:0:1
230,401,2021-01-31,13:0:1
236,433,2021-01-31,14:0:1
271,490,2021-01-31,15:0:1
324,506,2021-01-31,16:0:1
377,579,2021-01-31,17:0:1
439,591,2021-01-31,18:0:1
531,614,2021-01-31,19:0:1
479,657,2021-01-31,20:0:1
394,669,2021-01-31,21:0:1
368,670,2021-01-31,22:0:1
316,653,2021-01-31,23:0:1
293,626,2021-02-01,0:0:2
260,588,2021-02-01,1:0:2
248,541,2021-02-01,2:0:2
227,529,2021-02-01,3:0:1
192,494,2021-02-01,4:0:1
163,438,2021-02-01,5:0:1
133,407,2021-02-01,6:0:1
140,338,2021-02-01,7:0:1
122,313,2021-02-01,8:0:1
127,332,2021-02-01,9:0:1
129,332,2021-02-01,10:0:2
128,334,2021-02-01,11:0:2
161,342,2021-02-01,12:0:2
175,362,2021-02-01,13:0:1
170,331,2021-02-01,14:0:1
119,213,2021-02-01,15:0:1
206,388,2021-02-01,16:0:1
241,476,2021-02-01,17:0:1
269,531,2021-02-01,18:0:1
290,550,2021-02-01,19:0:1
320,548,2021-02-01,20:0:1
352,560,2021-02-01,21:0:1
304,539,2021-02-01,22:0:1
269,525,2021-02-01,23:0:1
233,514,2021-02-02,0:0:1
237,519,2021-02-02,1:0:2
227,479,2021-02-02,2:0:2
208,474,2021-02-02,3:0:2
189,449,2021-02-02,4:0:1
175,409,2021-02-02,5:0:1
165,375,2021-02-02,6:0:1
159,328,2021-02-02,7:0:1
149,303,2021-02-02,8:0:1
151,311,2021-02-02,9:0:1
146,302,2021-02-02,10:0:1
155,324,2021-02-02,11:0:1
172,322,2021-02-02,12:0:2
189,319,2021-02-02,13:0:2
212,344,2021-02-02,14:0:2
230,353,2021-02-02,15:0:1
242,420,2021-02-02,16:0:1
263,484,2021-02-02,17:0:1
269,541,2021-02-02,18:0:1
279,583,2021-02-02,19:0:1
269,600,2021-02-02,20:0:1
287,576,2021-02-02,21:0:1
261,537,2021-02-02,22:0:1
251,488,2021-02-02,23:0:1
259,492,2021-02-03,0:0:1
247,487,2021-02-03,1:0:1
239,467,2021-02-03,2:0:1
223,434,2021-02-03,3:0:2
184,417,2021-02-03,4:0:2
169,393,2021-02-03,5:0:2
162,325,2021-02-03,6:0:1
149,311,2021-02-03,7:0:1
156,287,2021-02-03,8:0:1
163,315,2021-02-03,9:0:1
150,344,2021-02-03,10:0:1
145,338,2021-02-03,11:0:1
178,344,2021-02-03,12:0:1
168,325,2021-02-03,13:0:1
199,376,2021-02-03,14:0:2
210,435,2021-02-03,15:0:2
241,471,2021-02-03,16:0:2
242,536,2021-02-03,17:0:2
258,579,2021-02-03,18:0:1
305,613,2021-02-03,19:0:1
309,620,2021-02-03,20:0:1
319,607,2021-02-03,21:0:1
297,551,2021-02-03,22:0:1
254,505,2021-02-03,23:0:1
247,457,2021-02-04,0:0:1
252,444,2021-02-04,1:0:1
261,451,2021-02-04,2:0:1
234,447,2021-02-04,3:0:1
200,400,2021-02-04,4:0:1
179,354,2021-02-04,5:0:1
158,317,2021-02-04,6:0:2
155,298,2021-02-04,7:0:1
156,291,2021-02-04,8:0:1
149,317,2021-02-04,9:0:1
151,302,2021-02-04,10:0:1
153,332,2021-02-04,11:0:1
169,346,2021-02-04,12:0:1
169,367,2021-02-04,13:0:1
0,0,2021-02-04,14:0:1
154,309,2021-02-04,15:0:1
202,411,2021-02-04,16:0:1
253,490,2021-02-04,17:0:2
267,518,2021-02-04,18:0:2
308,532,2021-02-04,19:0:2
323,544,2021-02-04,20:0:1
308,558,2021-02-04,21:0:1
296,538,2021-02-04,22:0:1
277,549,2021-02-04,23:0:1
267,525,2021-02-05,0:0:1
290,494,2021-02-05,1:0:1
289,500,2021-02-05,2:0:1
256,494,2021-02-05,3:0:1
220,444,2021-02-05,4:0:1
182,354,2021-02-05,5:0:1
160,328,2021-02-05,6:0:1
161,308,2021-02-05,7:0:1
156,274,2021-02-05,8:0:1
162,280,2021-02-05,9:0:1
156,312,2021-02-05,10:0:1
162,306,2021-02-05,11:0:1
170,316,2021-02-05,12:0:1
183,341,2021-02-05,13:0:1
185,369,2021-02-05,14:0:1
224,398,2021-02-05,15:0:1
226,417,2021-02-05,16:0:1
235,451,2021-02-05,17:0:1
258,511,2021-02-05,18:0:1
276,536,2021-02-05,19:0:2
308,564,2021-02-05,20:0:2
309,605,2021-02-05,21:0:2
305,600,2021-02-05,22:0:1

 

And as always, a nice monthly summary!

 

    OLD     NEW     TOTAL     GROWTH     OLD     NEW  
Date O-Min O-Avg O-Max N-Min N-Avg M-Max Min Average Max O-Growth N-Growth T-Growth Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max
01/01/2021 175 277.6667 406 289 513.7083 729 175 395.6875 729 25.91667 28.29167 27.10417       1.114799   0.806077
02/01/2021 152 265.7083 385 354 570.875 741 152 418.2917 741 -11.9583 57.16667 22.60417            
03/01/2021 181 278.6667 393 353 553.25 743 181 415.9583 743 12.95833 -17.625 -2.33333            
04/01/2021 157 235.4167 325 304 471.0833 633 157 353.25 633 -43.25 -82.1667 -62.7083            
05/01/2021 1 212.6667 339 0 404.5417 591 1 308.6042 591 -22.75 -66.5417 -44.6458 1 250.9762 406   499.7381  
06/01/2021 155 236.75 320 261 429.0833 624 155 332.9167 624 24.08333 24.54167 24.3125            
07/01/2021 127 214.7917 320 267 441.9167 630 127 328.3542 630 -21.9583 12.83333 -4.5625            
08/01/2021 127 212.8333 294 285 447.25 652 127 330.0417 652 -1.95833 5.333333 1.6875            
09/01/2021 150 256.0417 386 333 514.0833 720 150 385.0625 720 43.20833 66.83333 55.02083            
10/01/2021 154 256.8261 376 355 525 680 154 390.913 680 0.78442 10.91667 5.850543            
11/01/2021 119 199.0417 298 303 463 622 119 331.0208 622 -57.7844 -62 -59.8922            
12/01/2021 134 207 302 324 448 578 134 327.5 578 7.958333 -15 -3.52083 1 226.1835 386   466.9048  
13/01/2021 115 194.75 293 283 435.2083 564 115 314.9792 564 -12.25 -12.7917 -12.5208            
14/01/2021 130 187.5417 281 249 412.3333 544 130 299.9375 544 -7.20833 -22.875 -15.0417            
15/01/2021 126 202.7917 310 278 422.5 586 126 312.6458 586 15.25 10.16667 12.70833            
16/01/2021 154 253.2083 438 332 489.5833 666 154 371.3958 666 50.41667 67.08333 58.75            
17/01/2021 151 253.375 382 328 494.625 655 151 374 655 0.166667 5.041667 2.604167            
18/01/2021 115 222.1667 350 306 457.5833 630 115 339.875 630 -31.2083 -37.0417 -34.125            
19/01/2021 120 216.0455 347 288 450.5909 600 120 333.3182 600 -6.12121 -6.99242 -6.55682 115 218.5541 438   451.7749  
20/01/2021 121 212.5 333 271 421.9583 560 121 317.2292 560 -3.54545 -28.6326 -16.089            
21/01/2021 5 194.1667 341 25 400.4583 568 5 297.3125 568 -18.3333 -21.5 -19.9167            
22/01/2021 119 215.375 333 309 432.6667 620 119 324.0208 620 21.20833 32.20833 26.70833            
23/01/2021 159 261.875 416 348 500.625 650 159 381.25 650 46.5 67.95833 57.22917            
24/01/2021 148 275.3333 429 339 519.4167 731 148 397.375 731 13.45833 18.79167 16.125            
25/01/2021 141 226.75 314 305 462.4583 609 141 344.6042 609 -48.5833 -56.9583 -52.7708            
26/01/2021 133 232.6667 332 336 476.4167 611 133 354.5417 611 5.916667 13.95833 9.9375 5 231.2381 429   459.1429  
27/01/2021 144 217.25 313 314 454.9167 600 144 336.0833 600 -15.4167 -21.5 -18.4583            
28/01/2021 1 208.9583 344 0 407.9167 564 1 308.4375 564 -8.29167 -47 -27.6458            
29/01/2021 144 227 344 273 422.5833 558 144 324.7917 558 18.04167 14.66667 16.35417            
30/01/2021 178 288.875 473 316 484.5 653 178 386.6875 653 61.875 61.91667 61.89583            
31/01/2021 187 301.0833 531 328 500.25 670 187 400.6667 670 12.20833 15.75 13.97917       233.7136   465.4317
                                1.003125   0.873375
                          % Increase/Decrease 0.312491   -12.6625

 

 

So where are we?  Well, the old cluster has now stopped growing and stabilised at 233 players, still well below where it once was.  In terms of January, this kind of stall is quite unusual; usually wurm sees growth in its population during this period (every year barring 2017 has shown some growth between December and January), which does indicate that we may see a sharp decline in the near future since February always seems to see a decline.  Indeed, December--April usually sees a sharp decline in wurm's population; so it should be interesting to see if this trend holds.

 

The new cluster remains in freefall, though the rate of decline has decreased so we may be seeing it reach a stable population.

 

Overall, though the evidence does not encourage much optimisim for either cluster!

 

 

Edited by Etherdrifter
- tiny typo!
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moAr advertising, moAr content, MOaR client & server optimization.. not in that exact order, fixes and optimizations are somewhat high prio if another bigger content and advertising are planned .. just not to surprise the new kids with glitches, lag and wogic🤔

 

As for decreasing player count.. wogic and bugs or latest content cuts aren't welcoming to neither old or new players, content additions/news are slightly irregular or so it seems, new players probably expect the regular content you'd expect to get as updates every few weeks; by new player understand typical mmo player, not old timers who have invested time/money/friendships into the game to have hard time leaving it for another game. That aside.. huge number of the initial "players" were probably alts.. to transfer deed ownerships, priests, sermon alts, alts for timed promotions like xmas & etc gifts, normal to lose a lot once most are irrelevant to keep premmed or online.

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I don't think advertising will necessarily fix things.  It's important and relevant to look at why people are leaving and address it.  We had a large number of people when Steam Wurm started, the ads worked, but they didn't last.  That will just keep going, they might get drawn in, but unless we can fix what is pushing them away, it won't last.

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One of the underlying issues I noticed from negative steam reviews were the long login timers and also overcrowding on steam servers. 

 

This could have easily been fixed if players were actually directed to starting on almost empty servers aka freedom = epic which easily could have handled 2000 brand new players at least.

 

Another issue i've noticed over 8 years of playtime is simply the lack of direction. It's counterintuitive but wurm is a sandbox game where you set your own goals but at the same time it is nice to have external things to pump you up.

 

Something can gives a meaningful sense of progress. One possible thing would be monthly community wide events. 

 

An example would be : The troll invasion of Cadence. 


"Trolls have bred in droves and pose a danger to the inhabitants of this land. We need strong fighters to repel this new threat. Are you up to the challenge?" 

 

One such small quest/ event can foster a lot of cooperation between players. 

 

1. It will encourage hunting group to form and foster new friendships.

2. People would get extra motivation to get their fighting skills up.

3. Armourers and smiths will be in high demand to repair and imp gear.

4. Players can get points for every troll slain. 

5. At the end said points can be redeemed for small rewards, players choice, similar to rift points.

6. Gives a nice sense of server wide cooperation.

 

At point 6 I'd like to add that Wurm tends to inspire a very selfish way of playing. It's pure psychology.

 

You make your "own" deed. You build your "own" house. You have your own property. It's all about claiming things for yourself. This is a phenomenon purely for the Freedom side of Wurm. In pvp it's the reverse. The threat of enemies that can plunder your village or kill you fosters cooperation in the long run. You band together to survive.

 

This can be easily exemplified by how many alliances Epic usually has. It's 1-2 alliances per server at most. On desertion we used to have one big alliance of almost 300 players.


On freedom you have 50 different alliances composing of 2-3 people. See the issue here?

 

Freedom style gameplay breeds isolation in the long run. People become disconnected from each other apart from traded. People do not have a common goal to strive for.

 

This can be fixed in small steps by giving freedom players an actual threat/goal to work together for a change. Something more than small community projects. Something can can lead to bigger groups, more friendships, less isolation.

 

These are just the observation of 8 years of playing, but I feel they are rooted in reality when it comes to player behavior in Wurm.

 

Give people a common goal or an external threat and they band together.

Leave people to their own devices (providing for themselves) and you have a bunch of isolated players who will eventually feel they are playing in single player mode = they will quit. 

 

My two cents. Fix game design perhaps?

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On 1/7/2021 at 11:20 PM, RainRain said:



the problem here is that "dying" to you doesn't mean what it means for others: if you're satisfied with 200 total accounts, many of which could be alts, being online across the what, 8 different servers in SFI (and i'll ignore epic here too) then i don't think "dead" means anything to you beyond "game shuts down"

if the game hits pits like this, the game is dead. If it maintains this way, the game has no hope for improvement. The only people playing with it are the people satisfied with the status quo- the only fine thing about that is the fact that so little money is actually required to keep this game running that it can potentially keep running with just that many people basically until the end of time lmao.

Steam wasn't a gamble. It was a play to raise money and impress investors. I'm waiting to see what they do with that money, now.

 

I question how much 'dev time' actually was needed to create the steam servers. The most complicated aspect of it seems to have been managing the database, but the devs that existing have very different jobs tackling different areas of the code- and again, we have no full time contracted devs. It's the same excuse as always- for one reason or another (and maybe a good one, maybe not) the devs can't seem to actually commit much time to make many changes.

You're always so positive. It's refreshing to see...

 

Image result for sarcasm meter gif

 

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@elentariI agree with this.  I love the idea of people working together towards a common goal, and that being rewarded.  I'd even love giving reasons for people to stick around in starting villages and calling them home.  Communities are something we should be fostering, I also like the idea of people going off on their own because everyone wants to make their own place theirs.  It just feels nice to give people a reason to stick around in old places, and maybe breathe life into them.  It's something I'd love, but I have a hard time imagining ways to draw others into that level of mindset.

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if epic was good.. people would be playing there; similar for other pvp content.. it seems to be not so wanted concept, "wonder why"

 

not ideal(exact) numbers.. but there's how steam population looks over time.. 

https://steamcharts.com/app/1179680#All

fc3fe377377ad1224737411d9a4c7203.png

 

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11 hours ago, Finnn said:

if epic was good.. people would be playing there; similar for other pvp content.. it seems to be not so wanted concept, "wonder why"

 

 

Epic was good actually for a long time.

 

The issue of Epic dying was simply a lot of problems that got compounded over time and weren't fixed which made the player population bleed out over time.

 

1. Lack of cyclical pvp updates.

2. Broken mechanics and abuses.

3. Broken valrei system.

4. An elevation map way too big way too flat. Old elevation was better.

5. Most updates were directed at PvE and Chaos, not Epic which led to a sense of being a 2nd class citizen on Epic, hence more players quitting.

6. Forced mechanics from PvE on Epic without any forethought. 

7. Forcing a new skilling system on Epic which not everyone liked. 

8. Still not addressing said issues for Epic such as the number of uniques constantly bashing deeds and killing players, not being killable due to low pop.

9. Mostly neglect on the side of the devs. Not mentioning Epic in any updates, not adding any content, not fixing things. This leads to players having a strong sense of abandonment and thus they live the game. I simply hope the dedvs will learn something about not neglecting a server that once hosted at least 1000 unique players (implicitly customers). 

 

Epic could be made great again (insert trump here) if some problems were fixed that made Epic attractive again.

 

I just hope history doesn't repeat itself and the devs turn SFI into another Epic, aka focusing resources on one cluster while neglecting the rest. Time will tell. 

Edited by elentari
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Currently i am 6 prem accounts on the old cluster, and i regret premming the alts. The only thing happening in 2021 is maybe a minor combat UI update. At the rare that devs produce new content right now, i wouldn't be surprised if we go back to days with only 200 accounts logging in by the end of the year.

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55 minutes ago, Rocklobster said:

Currently i am 6 prem accounts on the old cluster, and i regret premming the alts. The only thing happening in 2021 is maybe a minor combat UI update. At the rare that devs produce new content right now, i wouldn't be surprised if we go back to days with only 200 accounts logging in by the end of the year.

 

We probably are, I have no idea how many of those accounts are actually separate people, or alts.  In this game, you need an alt if you end up making a priest because of the limitations it imposes upon you.  I can imagine the numbers we're seeing is much lower than projected.  This game just can't hold a player base, unless we can address why people aren't staying, it will only get worse.  The only people that truly stay are often the most loyal of the fanbase.  I do see Steam as a gamble, it opened up a lot of new servers that need upkeep and attention on top of what it already has.

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On 2/9/2021 at 2:00 AM, Zahnweh said:

 

We probably are, I have no idea how many of those accounts are actually separate people, or alts.  In this game, you need an alt if you end up making a priest because of the limitations it imposes upon you.  I can imagine the numbers we're seeing is much lower than projected.  This game just can't hold a player base, unless we can address why people aren't staying, it will only get worse.  The only people that truly stay are often the most loyal of the fanbase.  I do see Steam as a gamble, it opened up a lot of new servers that need upkeep and attention on top of what it already has.

Usually most veterans have at least 1 alt and are happy with that, some have way more but from my experience most people have 2 accounts, so from those 200 players at least, and of course in theory half are alts, so half are real players. Quite sad for a game that is considered the father of modern sandbox and crafting games

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Another part of the problem is the complete lack of direction from the Devs at a critical time, the first 6 months of steam release was so important and was wasted imo, more than one person I spoke to in game ( all quit now ) said in there view steam was a last cash grab and we wont see any meaningful updates.

 

Well to be honest, looks a little like that now.

 

With new games released all the time and more and more games that can scratch that crafting itch the only thing imo Wurm still does better is the terraforming no other game has the options wurm has for that ( that isnt blocky ).

 

Wurm will be fine on its 200-300 accounts plodding on and when the devs need some more cash, another server will drop and the cycle will continue.

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2 hours ago, Badvoc said:

Another part of the problem is the complete lack of direction from the Devs at a critical time, the first 6 months of steam release was so important and was wasted imo, more than one person I spoke to in game ( all quit now ) said in there view steam was a last cash grab and we wont see any meaningful updates.

Well we got now plans for the combat update and like 3 months after the Steam release there was a post with some information (but not well-structured).

You can sort players in more or less 3 groups:

First that are just testing the game out because the over all structure looks like they could have fun with it maybe drop the small amount of money for the 2 month premium+deed and find that the game is in its core not what they want. (Probably the largest group)

Second we have the players that like the game and systems and would stay but are a bit lost because the content without connections to other players is relatively stale, and they look for more and want to know where the game is going and if its worth to invest more time in it.

Third the people that fall in Love with Wurm and understand how to get fun and enjoyment out of it for them self. (Probably the smallest group)

 

The second group is the one that was lost during all the bad communication of the Steam lunch. And I think this is the sad part. Wurm feels in a lot of ways Alpha or Beta like with lots of features are tagged on, not well-balanced and a really flat basic core loop without fluff around to make it more interesting (bearable). If you start to develop an interest for the game and want to know what will happen next you just read that their are already features ready on other servers that will activate over time and that on the old servers were this features are already in place will probably not get anything new for month.  And you maybe get the feeling that the game will not make progress and that there nothing to work for. I know this is not true since Wurm "endgame" is not like other games with a big bad PVE encounter but for most people the lack of direction and the fact of near to nothing of new content planed or even spoken of from the official side did give a feel the game is not worth to invest more time in it when you already at this "lost" point. And then this players slowly drop out over time when their deeds and premiums running out

 

I hope that the communication get better now and we can at least retain more of the people that drip slowly in over steam or other ways and their interest in the game don´t hit a wall of silence that kill their enthusiasm.

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14 hours ago, Radircs said:

The second group is the one that was lost during all the bad communication of the Steam lunch. And I think this is the sad part. Wurm feels in a lot of ways Alpha or Beta like with lots of features are tagged on, not well-balanced and a really flat basic core loop without fluff around to make it more interesting (bearable). If you start to develop an interest for the game and want to know what will happen next you just read that their are already features ready on other servers that will activate over time and that on the old servers were this features are already in place will probably not get anything new for month.  And you maybe get the feeling that the game will not make progress and that there nothing to work for. I know this is not true since Wurm "endgame" is not like other games with a big bad PVE encounter but for most people the lack of direction and the fact of near to nothing of new content planed or even spoken of from the official side did give a feel the game is not worth to invest more time in it when you already at this "lost" point. And then this players slowly drop out over time when their deeds and premiums running out

 

I hope that the communication get better now and we can at least retain more of the people that drip slowly in over steam or other ways and their interest in the game don´t hit a wall of silence that kill their enthusiasm.

 

I agree with you and all the sentiments I've been seeing.  I just hope that the downtrend can be stopped before it truly becomes something we can't recover from.  The worst outcome I can see is us going into maintenance mode and things just stagnating at that point.  I don't know if we've already passed the point of bringing people back.  I keep looking at YouTube videos about old MMOs of the past, how they fell, and why they fell.  I'm not a smart person, and this seems really beyond my scope.  At the same time, it's important to look at why new people can't stay here, what turned them off, and what even burns out hardcore players of the game.  I'm no better, I can't stay on an MMO forever regardless of how great it is.  Burnout is a real thing that hits everyone at some point while playing even the best MMOs.  They may return at some point, but it can hurt an MMO that is already hindered by a low number of players.  Especially when they can control multiple accounts, because most of them tend to pay at least for a couple of them to be premium.  Losing one player may not hurt, but multiple losses can be severe if it happens in a weak moment. 

 

I definitely agree that communication is the most important thing, regardless of if it's good or bad. 

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Some good points made,

 

in my gut when it released on steam more than a large fair share expected updates to follow, like nearly every other game released on steam.  All we had was downtime , lag and ?

 

I am not a game dev and I have no idea the ins and outs of a game release, but it felt rushed to hit a date when not ready, which lead to bugs and calls that people have exploited early, even if not true thats how it felt to some. I mean lets be honest there's nothing new been released since steam, I would also argue holding back the rifts as long as they did was a mistake. The New UI isnt finished ( I think I remember it was supposed to be finished for the steam release )

 

The devs should have had a road map that was released at the time of the steam release , with content in it, but we didn't get that and people left by the 100's.

 

Then I guess the numbers where messed up due to alts for power levelling priests, How many of these 2000+ players where alts?

 

I saw more than one deed set up with 6-7 alts power levelling priests, a couple of deeds with mining teams of alts, seemed a good deal to prem a ton of alts and use their marks and powders on your main while them using the alts to power level priests, So I expected after that process to see a drop of numbers anyway, but the drop of deeds and players is faster and harsher than I expected to be honest.

 

I enjoy wurm for the Terraforming, the day a game comes out that captures what wurm does there I would be off, as a lot of the so called "content" we have in wurm is smoke and mirrors , we have a large skill list and pretty much most the skills are useless anyway.

 

Another problem is we don't have a true item sink, stuff gets horded and items last forever if your careful. 

 

 

Saying all that, wurm will be fine on even as low as 200 players to be honest, can see it plodding on forever, always that little niche game with a loyal crazy following.

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