Posted October 6, 2020 On 10/5/2020 at 12:16 AM, Finnn said: should we be worried, now? I wouldn't say so; the old cluster may suffer from underpopulation but that is a very natural path for mmorpg servers to take; especially if there is a newer cluster. As much as I enjoy poking fun at Ekcin for being wrong about us not hitting sub-200 averages (especially since they bought it up constantly), I don't think the old cluster is in any danger of being killed off yet. It may well end up a "ghost town"; but that was rather the developers' plan and I can't see them sinking the islands when their own plans work out. 15 hours ago, wipeout said: Why? the cost to run the servers is still paid for big time by the amount of players playing and the "core" staff group's operational cost isnt that high anyway and if it comes down to it im sure they can just stop reimbursing @Retrogradehis energy drinks on late nights or early mornings and it should be fine Sounds fiscally sound to me; might be worth doing that just in case... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 Wait, being reimbursed was an option? 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) Wow so my halfbaked analysis just ballparking pop stats as i play wasn't too far off? I thought we lost like ~200 average on NFI. What's difficult with a dataset like this though is it could be just as simple as people playing their alts less I mean i don't have one so I can't comment on it but maybe alt use is more prevalent in the early days until your main gets higher? Also i can buy you an energy drink if you want Retro lol Edited October 13, 2020 by Andru 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 13, 2020 4 hours ago, Andru said: Wow so my halfbaked analysis just ballparking pop stats as i play wasn't too far off? I thought we lost like ~200 average on NFI. What's difficult with a dataset like this though is it could be just as simple as people playing their alts less I mean i don't have one so I can't comment on it but maybe alt use is more prevalent in the early days until your main gets higher? Also i can buy you an energy drink if you want Retro lol Yup; and more data is on the way when I can be bothered to dump it! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 16, 2020 Spoiler 116,704,2020-10-02,11:0:2 106,719,2020-10-02,12:0:1 128,730,2020-10-02,13:0:1 151,751,2020-10-02,14:0:1 174,842,2020-10-02,15:0:1 201,974,2020-10-02,16:0:1 210,991,2020-10-02,17:0:1 209,1045,2020-10-02,18:0:2 231,1125,2020-10-02,19:0:1 245,1156,2020-10-02,20:0:1 220,1121,2020-10-02,21:0:1 222,1150,2020-10-02,22:0:1 209,1133,2020-10-02,23:0:1 197,1050,2020-10-03,0:0:1 190,1039,2020-10-03,1:0:2 195,998,2020-10-03,2:0:1 202,930,2020-10-03,3:0:1 195,853,2020-10-03,4:0:1 198,795,2020-10-03,5:0:1 177,738,2020-10-03,6:0:1 151,714,2020-10-03,7:0:1 127,702,2020-10-03,8:0:1 118,697,2020-10-03,9:0:1 122,742,2020-10-03,10:0:1 129,803,2020-10-03,11:0:1 129,840,2020-10-03,12:0:1 144,900,2020-10-03,13:0:2 169,939,2020-10-03,14:0:1 211,1064,2020-10-03,15:0:1 232,1151,2020-10-03,16:0:1 284,1196,2020-10-03,17:0:1 319,1196,2020-10-03,18:0:1 407,1158,2020-10-03,19:0:1 332,1237,2020-10-03,20:0:2 293,1257,2020-10-03,21:0:1 265,1224,2020-10-03,22:0:1 240,1174,2020-10-03,23:0:1 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average population for this month is looking to be around 180 on the old cluster! 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Posted October 23, 2020 This week's data dump Spoiler 198,866,2020-10-16,17:0:1 234,893,2020-10-16,18:0:1 255,949,2020-10-16,19:0:1 226,1013,2020-10-16,20:0:2 219,1003,2020-10-16,21:0:1 213,979,2020-10-16,22:0:1 232,935,2020-10-16,23:0:1 205,857,2020-10-17,0:0:1 213,863,2020-10-17,1:0:1 201,849,2020-10-17,2:0:1 170,832,2020-10-17,3:0:2 158,798,2020-10-17,4:0:1 147,729,2020-10-17,5:0:1 128,695,2020-10-17,6:0:1 121,660,2020-10-17,7:0:1 122,589,2020-10-17,8:0:2 103,587,2020-10-17,9:0:1 128,601,2020-10-17,10:0:1 137,630,2020-10-17,11:0:1 133,636,2020-10-17,12:0:1 165,703,2020-10-17,13:0:1 172,743,2020-10-17,14:0:1 213,825,2020-10-17,15:0:2 230,892,2020-10-17,16:0:1 266,963,2020-10-17,17:0:1 264,1035,2020-10-17,18:0:1 298,1062,2020-10-17,19:0:1 278,1091,2020-10-17,20:0:1 289,1107,2020-10-17,21:0:1 262,1077,2020-10-17,22:0:2 254,1019,2020-10-17,23:0:1 234,940,2020-10-18,0:0:1 222,875,2020-10-18,1:0:1 226,852,2020-10-18,2:0:1 205,782,2020-10-18,3:0:1 169,774,2020-10-18,4:0:1 161,726,2020-10-18,5:0:2 146,693,2020-10-18,6:0:1 148,611,2020-10-18,7:0:1 133,597,2020-10-18,8:0:1 118,595,2020-10-18,9:0:2 139,611,2020-10-18,10:0:1 126,646,2020-10-18,11:0:1 150,662,2020-10-18,12:0:1 175,699,2020-10-18,13:0:1 192,751,2020-10-18,14:0:1 226,806,2020-10-18,15:0:2 277,891,2020-10-18,16:0:2 299,938,2020-10-18,17:0:1 343,1074,2020-10-18,18:0:1 408,1188,2020-10-18,19:0:1 346,1214,2020-10-18,20:0:1 288,1190,2020-10-18,21:0:1 272,1128,2020-10-18,22:0:1 220,1032,2020-10-18,23:0:2 199,920,2020-10-19,0:0:1 199,855,2020-10-19,1:0:1 196,803,2020-10-19,2:0:1 191,776,2020-10-19,3:0:1 169,718,2020-10-19,4:0:1 158,658,2020-10-19,5:0:1 132,571,2020-10-19,6:0:2 114,491,2020-10-19,7:0:1 98,481,2020-10-19,8:0:1 96,473,2020-10-19,9:0:1 118,478,2020-10-19,10:0:1 118,492,2020-10-19,11:0:2 135,518,2020-10-19,12:0:2 140,571,2020-10-19,13:0:1 157,615,2020-10-19,14:0:1 192,686,2020-10-19,15:0:1 221,723,2020-10-19,16:0:1 223,834,2020-10-19,17:0:1 223,910,2020-10-19,18:0:1 246,1012,2020-10-19,19:0:2 254,997,2020-10-19,20:0:1 233,1004,2020-10-19,21:0:1 229,976,2020-10-19,22:0:1 206,916,2020-10-19,23:0:1 199,864,2020-10-20,0:0:1 184,805,2020-10-20,1:0:1 180,790,2020-10-20,2:0:2 158,774,2020-10-20,3:0:1 146,735,2020-10-20,4:0:1 134,604,2020-10-20,5:0:1 120,558,2020-10-20,6:0:1 106,470,2020-10-20,7:0:2 101,485,2020-10-20,8:0:1 107,464,2020-10-20,9:0:1 110,498,2020-10-20,10:0:1 109,488,2020-10-20,11:0:1 119,497,2020-10-20,12:0:1 132,523,2020-10-20,13:0:1 156,602,2020-10-20,14:0:2 175,664,2020-10-20,15:0:1 176,736,2020-10-20,16:0:1 189,842,2020-10-20,17:0:1 215,934,2020-10-20,18:0:1 229,990,2020-10-20,19:0:1 231,993,2020-10-20,20:0:1 235,1022,2020-10-20,21:0:2 229,1015,2020-10-20,22:0:2 197,911,2020-10-20,23:0:1 214,842,2020-10-21,0:0:1 202,792,2020-10-21,1:0:1 203,740,2020-10-21,2:0:1 184,763,2020-10-21,3:0:1 157,727,2020-10-21,4:0:2 129,656,2020-10-21,5:0:2 112,584,2020-10-21,6:0:1 113,517,2020-10-21,7:0:1 106,482,2020-10-21,8:0:1 102,490,2020-10-21,9:0:2 121,476,2020-10-21,10:0:1 109,509,2020-10-21,11:0:1 118,559,2020-10-21,12:0:1 143,554,2020-10-21,13:0:1 164,625,2020-10-21,14:0:1 207,693,2020-10-21,15:0:1 215,750,2020-10-21,16:0:2 221,801,2020-10-21,17:0:2 222,877,2020-10-21,18:0:1 228,934,2020-10-21,19:0:1 238,966,2020-10-21,20:0:1 250,975,2020-10-21,21:0:1 255,946,2020-10-21,22:0:1 228,903,2020-10-21,23:0:2 193,822,2020-10-22,0:0:2 181,826,2020-10-22,1:0:1 191,821,2020-10-22,2:0:1 182,804,2020-10-22,3:0:1 156,747,2020-10-22,4:0:1 128,661,2020-10-22,5:0:1 112,565,2020-10-22,6:0:1 100,515,2020-10-22,7:0:1 85,502,2020-10-22,8:0:1 99,477,2020-10-22,9:0:1 119,526,2020-10-22,10:0:1 111,514,2020-10-22,11:0:2 119,523,2020-10-22,12:0:1 147,562,2020-10-22,13:0:1 155,599,2020-10-22,14:0:1 178,675,2020-10-22,15:0:1 190,761,2020-10-22,16:0:1 191,847,2020-10-22,17:0:1 211,864,2020-10-22,18:0:2 208,952,2020-10-22,19:0:2 231,986,2020-10-22,20:0:1 235,1002,2020-10-22,21:0:1 230,699,2020-10-22,22:0:1 203,843,2020-10-22,23:0:1 205,829,2020-10-23,0:0:1 209,798,2020-10-23,1:0:1 195,799,2020-10-23,2:0:2 175,801,2020-10-23,3:0:1 167,796,2020-10-23,4:0:1 147,598,2020-10-23,5:0:1 136,558,2020-10-23,6:0:1 128,518,2020-10-23,7:0:2 122,501,2020-10-23,8:0:1 123,507,2020-10-23,9:0:1 127,514,2020-10-23,10:0:1 144,526,2020-10-23,11:0:1 136,533,2020-10-23,12:0:1 157,564,2020-10-23,13:0:2 162,635,2020-10-23,14:0:2 24,178,2020-10-23,15:0:1 207,614,2020-10-23,16:0:1 So; where are we so far this month? Well the graph below shows the weekly average population taken at the dates given Well as we can see from the graph above, the populations have been dropping steadily on both clusters; indeed the new cluster is now shedding players at a rather rapid rate! Date OLD NEW 31/08/2020 97.02% 96.10% 07/09/2020 101.18% 92.23% 14/09/2020 89.63% 95.16% 21/09/2020 99.47% 92.33% 28/09/2020 93.30% 91.52% 05/10/2020 100.28% 95.56% 12/10/2020 100.41% 89.47% 19/10/2020 98.24% 95.52% The table above shows the percentage change from the previous month of the population. So on 05/10/2020 the weekly average was 0.28% higher than the week before (which is less than one extra person). The new cluster is declining at a steady rate which shows no sign of slowing down yet; it's still quite erratic. The old cluster appears to be stabilising out, hopefully we'll see the decline stop, if not reverse. Of course; historically we can expect a boost around Christmas, though this past year has left me far from optimistic. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 1, 2020 And here is the last bit of data for this month! Spoiler 259 658 2020-10-23 17 0 1 263 875 2020-10-23 18 0 1 279 952 2020-10-23 19 0 1 269 1027 2020-10-23 20 0 2 315 1023 2020-10-23 21 0 2 295 989 2020-10-23 22 0 1 263 984 2020-10-23 23 0 1 259 948 2020-10-24 0 0 1 261 906 2020-10-24 1 0 1 253 855 2020-10-24 2 0 1 229 861 2020-10-24 3 0 2 190 828 2020-10-24 4 0 2 183 773 2020-10-24 5 0 1 161 649 2020-10-24 6 0 1 145 598 2020-10-24 7 0 1 135 571 2020-10-24 8 0 1 136 544 2020-10-24 9 0 2 158 562 2020-10-24 10 0 1 150 579 2020-10-24 11 0 1 171 635 2020-10-24 12 0 1 214 675 2020-10-24 13 0 1 218 785 2020-10-24 14 0 1 232 837 2020-10-24 15 0 1 242 892 2020-10-24 16 0 2 249 878 2020-10-24 17 0 1 287 939 2020-10-24 18 0 1 294 979 2020-10-24 19 0 1 315 1046 2020-10-24 20 0 1 303 1036 2020-10-24 21 0 1 293 1002 2020-10-24 22 0 1 276 984 2020-10-24 23 0 2 257 914 2020-10-25 0 0 1 235 950 2020-10-25 1 0 1 218 921 2020-10-25 1 0 1 210 887 2020-10-25 2 0 1 197 844 2020-10-25 3 0 1 203 791 2020-10-25 4 0 2 184 724 2020-10-25 5 0 2 166 622 2020-10-25 6 0 1 154 572 2020-10-25 7 0 1 150 545 2020-10-25 8 0 1 161 539 2020-10-25 9 0 2 167 591 2020-10-25 10 0 2 192 585 2020-10-25 11 0 1 210 641 2020-10-25 12 0 1 240 675 2020-10-25 13 0 1 267 762 2020-10-25 14 0 1 302 813 2020-10-25 15 0 1 313 903 2020-10-25 16 0 1 309 964 2020-10-25 17 0 2 322 1037 2020-10-25 18 0 1 323 1057 2020-10-25 19 0 1 312 1037 2020-10-25 20 0 1 315 1022 2020-10-25 21 0 1 292 970 2020-10-25 22 0 1 254 917 2020-10-25 23 0 2 254 878 2020-10-26 0 0 1 249 833 2020-10-26 1 0 1 226 788 2020-10-26 2 0 1 198 716 2020-10-26 3 0 1 173 655 2020-10-26 4 0 1 142 580 2020-10-26 5 0 1 129 513 2020-10-26 6 0 2 108 474 2020-10-26 7 0 1 114 443 2020-10-26 8 0 1 130 469 2020-10-26 9 0 1 137 516 2020-10-26 10 0 1 124 526 2020-10-26 11 0 2 135 557 2020-10-26 12 0 1 161 574 2020-10-26 13 0 1 176 632 2020-10-26 14 0 1 187 675 2020-10-26 15 0 1 228 771 2020-10-26 16 0 1 238 844 2020-10-26 17 0 1 269 909 2020-10-26 18 0 2 274 969 2020-10-26 19 0 1 273 992 2020-10-26 20 0 1 265 971 2020-10-26 21 0 1 266 921 2020-10-26 22 0 1 243 871 2020-10-26 23 0 1 208 831 2020-10-27 0 0 1 228 792 2020-10-27 1 0 2 201 750 2020-10-27 2 0 1 191 738 2020-10-27 3 0 1 165 666 2020-10-27 4 0 1 132 558 2020-10-27 5 0 1 110 504 2020-10-27 6 0 1 96 465 2020-10-27 7 0 1 109 455 2020-10-27 8 0 1 113 461 2020-10-27 9 0 1 115 505 2020-10-27 10 0 1 131 524 2020-10-27 11 0 1 142 527 2020-10-27 12 0 2 2 0 2020-10-27 13 0 2 133 472 2020-10-27 14 0 1 191 612 2020-10-27 15 0 1 227 716 2020-10-27 16 0 1 231 801 2020-10-27 17 0 1 264 857 2020-10-27 18 0 1 268 899 2020-10-27 19 0 2 294 890 2020-10-27 20 0 2 274 889 2020-10-27 21 0 1 254 893 2020-10-27 22 0 1 246 838 2020-10-27 23 0 1 262 833 2020-10-28 0 0 1 257 810 2020-10-28 1 0 1 242 786 2020-10-28 2 0 1 203 739 2020-10-28 3 0 2 150 607 2020-10-28 4 0 1 136 528 2020-10-28 5 0 1 129 466 2020-10-28 6 0 1 117 440 2020-10-28 7 0 2 119 454 2020-10-28 8 0 1 131 463 2020-10-28 9 0 1 131 500 2020-10-28 10 0 1 134 552 2020-10-28 11 0 1 145 584 2020-10-28 12 0 1 162 603 2020-10-28 13 0 1 201 630 2020-10-28 14 0 2 211 681 2020-10-28 15 0 2 217 738 2020-10-28 16 0 1 244 785 2020-10-28 17 0 1 262 834 2020-10-28 18 0 1 292 939 2020-10-28 19 0 1 298 949 2020-10-28 20 0 1 269 903 2020-10-28 21 0 2 257 894 2020-10-28 22 0 1 232 828 2020-10-28 23 0 1 214 821 2020-10-29 0 0 1 215 826 2020-10-29 1 0 1 198 769 2020-10-29 2 0 1 190 739 2020-10-29 3 0 1 170 651 2020-10-29 4 0 1 139 563 2020-10-29 5 0 2 124 510 2020-10-29 6 0 1 124 504 2020-10-29 7 0 1 126 474 2020-10-29 8 0 1 122 468 2020-10-29 9 0 2 129 473 2020-10-29 10 0 2 135 536 2020-10-29 11 0 1 155 534 2020-10-29 12 0 1 114 468 2020-10-29 13 0 1 100 381 2020-10-29 14 0 1 163 568 2020-10-29 15 0 1 199 670 2020-10-29 16 0 1 222 753 2020-10-29 17 0 2 252 822 2020-10-29 18 0 1 281 918 2020-10-29 19 0 1 310 958 2020-10-29 20 0 1 296 947 2020-10-29 21 0 1 259 931 2020-10-29 22 0 1 248 885 2020-10-29 23 0 1 262 847 2020-10-30 0 0 2 249 802 2020-10-30 1 0 2 222 799 2020-10-30 2 0 1 190 680 2020-10-30 3 0 1 167 639 2020-10-30 4 0 1 160 562 2020-10-30 5 0 1 139 493 2020-10-30 6 0 1 126 476 2020-10-30 7 0 1 126 468 2020-10-30 8 0 1 126 493 2020-10-30 9 0 1 147 492 2020-10-30 10 0 1 154 548 2020-10-30 11 0 2 148 560 2020-10-30 12 0 2 164 607 2020-10-30 13 0 1 194 666 2020-10-30 14 0 1 223 727 2020-10-30 15 0 1 249 814 2020-10-30 16 0 1 231 873 2020-10-30 17 0 1 255 926 2020-10-30 18 0 2 254 924 2020-10-30 19 0 2 273 988 2020-10-30 20 0 1 269 924 2020-10-30 21 0 1 256 950 2020-10-30 22 0 1 250 950 2020-10-30 23 0 1 240 960 2020-10-31 0 0 1 225 943 2020-10-31 1 0 2 223 896 2020-10-31 2 0 2 198 824 2020-10-31 3 0 1 180 758 2020-10-31 4 0 1 156 732 2020-10-31 5 0 1 135 627 2020-10-31 6 0 1 127 581 2020-10-31 7 0 2 139 575 2020-10-31 8 0 1 141 570 2020-10-31 9 0 1 145 561 2020-10-31 10 0 1 178 602 2020-10-31 11 0 1 173 678 2020-10-31 12 0 1 206 704 2020-10-31 13 0 1 238 779 2020-10-31 14 0 2 249 832 2020-10-31 15 0 1 228 782 2020-10-31 16 0 1 164 421 2020-10-31 17 0 1 292 759 2020-10-31 18 0 1 313 894 2020-10-31 19 0 1 337 990 2020-10-31 20 0 2 298 960 2020-10-31 21 0 1 317 932 2020-10-31 22 0 1 299 898 2020-10-31 23 0 1 267 844 2020-11-01 0 0 1 235 809 2020-11-01 1 0 1 219 768 2020-11-01 2 0 1 210 747 2020-11-01 3 0 2 201 726 2020-11-01 4 0 1 187 648 2020-11-01 5 0 1 155 562 2020-11-01 6 0 1 147 502 2020-11-01 7 0 2 143 504 2020-11-01 8 0 1 167 495 2020-11-01 9 0 1 175 514 2020-11-01 10 0 1 194 550 2020-11-01 11 0 1 212 587 2020-11-01 12 0 1 223 683 2020-11-01 13 0 1 262 780 2020-11-01 14 0 2 259 815 2020-11-01 15 0 2 300 895 2020-11-01 16 0 1 310 941 2020-11-01 17 0 1 315 1009 2020-11-01 18 0 1 315 1051 2020-11-01 19 0 1 325 1068 2020-11-01 20 0 1 325 1049 2020-11-01 21 0 1 291 1013 2020-11-01 22 0 2 So where are we compared to last month? I'll draw up a report tomorrow; too tired at the moment! However I can say the average population on the old cluster this month was 186.3627; so down a bit from last month. More summary stats tomorrow! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 Alright, so here it is; the monthly summary: OLD NEW TOTAL GROWTH Date O-Min O-Avg O-Max N-Min N-Avg M-Max Min Average Max O-Growth N-Growth T-Growth Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max MONTHLY AVG 01/10/2020 1 160.2917 271 0 784.1667 1087 1 472.2292 1087 -5.333333333 -111 -58.1667 02/10/2020 106 174.9583 245 639 872 1156 106 523.4792 1156 14.66666667 87.83333333 51.25 03/10/2020 118 209.4167 407 697 974.875 1257 118 592.1458 1257 34.45833333 102.875 68.66667 04/10/2020 137 210.1667 288 662 958.9583 1324 137 584.5625 1324 0.75 -15.9166667 -7.58333 05/10/2020 102 169.1667 234 548 821.25 1083 102 495.2083 1083 -41 -137.708333 -89.3542 1 180.1548 407 06/10/2020 105 171.4583 238 522 805.3333 1127 105 488.3958 1127 2.291666667 -15.9166667 -6.8125 07/10/2020 105 176.2917 255 549 784.5833 1044 105 480.4375 1044 4.833333333 -20.75 -7.95833 08/10/2020 37 158 236 176 709.5833 1009 37 433.7917 1009 -18.29166667 -75 -46.6458 09/10/2020 105 170.5 227 499 745.7917 1051 105 458.1458 1051 12.5 36.20833333 24.35417 10/10/2020 112 201.125 294 537 830.875 1124 112 516 1124 30.625 85.08333333 57.85417 11/10/2020 117 210.1667 297 575 854.3333 1142 117 532.25 1142 9.041666667 23.45833333 16.25 12/10/2020 116 180.625 259 515 796.5417 1156 116 488.5833 1156 -29.54166667 -57.7916667 -43.6667 37 180.8929 297 13/10/2020 100 169.5417 236 490 746.6667 1005 100 458.1042 1005 -11.08333333 -49.875 -30.4792 14/10/2020 105 167.2917 270 439 727.75 1041 105 447.5208 1041 -2.25 -18.9166667 -10.5833 15/10/2020 1 151.2083 226 0 644.375 957 1 397.7917 957 -16.08333333 -83.375 -49.7292 16/10/2020 105 172.8333 255 476 731.9167 1013 105 452.375 1013 21.625 87.54166667 54.58333 17/10/2020 103 194.0417 298 587 826.7917 1107 103 510.4167 1107 21.20833333 94.875 58.04167 18/10/2020 118 217.625 408 595 844.7917 1214 118 531.2083 1214 23.58333333 18 20.79167 19/10/2020 96 176.9583 254 473 728.25 1012 96 452.6042 1012 -40.66666667 -116.541667 -78.6042 1 177.7143 408 20/10/2020 101 164.0417 235 464 719.3333 1022 101 441.6875 1022 -12.91666667 -8.91666667 -10.9167 21/10/2020 102 176.7083 255 476 715.0417 975 102 445.875 975 12.66666667 -4.29166667 4.1875 22/10/2020 85 164.7917 235 477 712.2083 1002 85 438.5 1002 -11.91666667 -2.83333333 -7.375 23/10/2020 24 187.7917 315 178 699.0417 1027 24 443.4167 1027 23 -13.1666667 4.916667 24/10/2020 135 223.0833 315 544 806.75 1046 135 514.9167 1046 35.29166667 107.7083333 71.5 25/10/2020 150 238.12 323 539 811.32 1057 150 524.72 1057 15.03666667 4.57 9.803333 26/10/2020 108 195.7917 274 443 711.5417 992 108 453.6667 992 -42.32833333 -99.7783333 -71.0533 24 195.2136 27/10/2020 2 180.2083 294 0 651.7917 899 2 416 899 -15.58333333 -59.75 -37.6667 28/10/2020 117 200.0417 298 440 689.4167 949 117 444.7292 949 19.83333333 37.625 28.72917 29/10/2020 100 186.875 310 381 673.7083 958 100 430.2917 958 -13.16666667 -15.7083333 -14.4375 30/10/2020 126 201.4167 273 468 717 988 126 459.2083 988 14.54166667 43.29166667 28.91667 31/10/2020 127 216.7083 337 421 760.75 990 127 488.7292 990 15.29166667 43.75 29.52083 186.362742 As we can see; the overall monthly average for the old cluster is down by about 9 people; which is quite significant given that we're in a period where skillgain is increased and more items are available. Indeed, the last week calculated without the final day) is definitely quite a spike; without this the average would be somewhat bleaker (179.58). Last year there was a drop in averages between september and october; this year the drop was of about 4.5%; last year it is recorded as 14.3%. So there is evidence to suggest that either last year's drop has been somewhat mitigated; though this may just be a change in the characteristic of the population of the old cluster (only "diehards" remaining). We can definitely confirm that the old server is in decline, but are we in a worse position than we were last year? Well, again, I'll take the average of the maximums for the old cluster which gives 279.42 and compare this to the version from my data last year (275.73). This "peak average" comparision is definitely appears much more favourable; though here we remind the reader that this is a comparison of a peak average with an overall average and we'd expect a peak average to be substantively higher. Thus, it may be reasonable to assume that the population is lower than at the same time last year and this is building a stronger argument towards saying "the old cluster has not benefitted from the steam release". Indeed, it is reasonably certain now to say "the steam release did not generate a net gain in player influx for the old cluster" Overall the picture we're seeing is of decline in the long run, which is somewhat to be expected as it matches the pattern of previous years. However, we're also building a stronger case towards saying "the new cluster has not positively impacted the old cluster with regards to player counts" (this is not the same as indicating that it has actively harmed it). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 For all intents and purposes the steam release is basically wurm online but chopped into "patches" or "minor expansions" to give new players the feeling of stuff constantly being added. Aka goals, rifts, missions and so on. After that is ended, what will the player retention look like? This is my main concern. After all the "patches" are in, where does that leave retention? Yes the steam release did zero to impact old servers which honestly is kinda what many of us predicted. The reasons are many. New players don't want to enter an oversaturated market. Poor marketing for old servers. Remember the thread where MOST new players think the old cluster is "overpopulated" and "there's no room to settle or deed". ? Another reason why the steam release did nothing or even negatively impacted the old servers is this : Player count on steam increased and instead of maybe encouraging new players to at least take a look at the old servers the devs created new servers for the steam release. Basically spreading the population over the new servers. The old diehards as you call them, of which I also count myself, are basically unwilling to start from scratch after pouring years and many euros in developing their characters and deeds. Another important thing i'd like to point out, with the risk of seeming like a repeating broken disc...this phenomenon has happened before. It happened on Epic years ago. Here you have a dying cluster of players. So what do you do? You offer them a 1 way transfer to freedom. What happens afterwards? Epic dies out. Due to lack of significant pvp content added and lack of pvp balancing, pvp died. So everyone wanted to stop feeling they're playing in ghost town mode/single player mode and left for freedom. This happened what? 3 years ago? Was any significant content added to epic since then? nope. Did any revival happen longterm? Nope. Did any significant number of players joined Epic since then after the steam release? nope. So now we got another aged, sickly cluster, called Freedom. Diehards again, just like the diehards on Epic. Dev focus is of course on the steam release because financially those are their bread and butter. But for old freedom this means just stagnated content. Few new players. You "think" the cluster is ok just because you occasionally see some names in local or in gchat but it doesn't really mean it's healthy. All it takes is for 10 players on old freedom to leave on a monthly basis and you'll have 100 people left spread over 7 servers. At that point I'll still ask myself, will we get another transfer from freedom to the new server cluster? If so, isn't this repeating history of what happened on Epic? 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 26 minutes ago, elentari said: For all intents and purposes the steam release is basically wurm online but chopped into "patches" or "minor expansions" to give new players the feeling of stuff constantly being added. Aka goals, rifts, missions and so on. After that is ended, what will the player retention look like? This is my main concern. After all the "patches" are in, where does that leave retention? Yes the steam release did zero to impact old servers which honestly is kinda what many of us predicted. The reasons are many. New players don't want to enter an oversaturated market. Poor marketing for old servers. Remember the thread where MOST new players think the old cluster is "overpopulated" and "there's no room to settle or deed". ? Another reason why the steam release did nothing or even negatively impacted the old servers is this : Player count on steam increased and instead of maybe encouraging new players to at least take a look at the old servers the devs created new servers for the steam release. Basically spreading the population over the new servers. The old diehards as you call them, of which I also count myself, are basically unwilling to start from scratch after pouring years and many euros in developing their characters and deeds. Another important thing i'd like to point out, with the risk of seeming like a repeating broken disc...this phenomenon has happened before. It happened on Epic years ago. Here you have a dying cluster of players. So what do you do? You offer them a 1 way transfer to freedom. What happens afterwards? Epic dies out. Due to lack of significant pvp content added and lack of pvp balancing, pvp died. So everyone wanted to stop feeling they're playing in ghost town mode/single player mode and left for freedom. This happened what? 3 years ago? Was any significant content added to epic since then? nope. Did any revival happen longterm? Nope. Did any significant number of players joined Epic since then after the steam release? nope. So now we got another aged, sickly cluster, called Freedom. Diehards again, just like the diehards on Epic. Dev focus is of course on the steam release because financially those are their bread and butter. But for old freedom this means just stagnated content. Few new players. You "think" the cluster is ok just because you occasionally see some names in local or in gchat but it doesn't really mean it's healthy. All it takes is for 10 players on old freedom to leave on a monthly basis and you'll have 100 people left spread over 7 servers. At that point I'll still ask myself, will we get another transfer from freedom to the new server cluster? If so, isn't this repeating history of what happened on Epic? This, damn. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 @elentariI 100% agree with your view; indeed I am 100% behind this. The data definitely supports this picture, however it does not prove it to a reasonable enough degree yet. Give me a few more months and some more population data from last year and I can probably prove it conclusively. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 19, 2020 The latest data dump! Spoiler 223,909,2020-11-06,22:0:1 224,909,2020-11-06,23:0:1 200,927,2020-11-07,0:0:2 196,875,2020-11-07,1:0:1 209,804,2020-11-07,2:0:1 196,754,2020-11-07,3:0:1 181,685,2020-11-07,4:0:1 161,646,2020-11-07,5:0:1 144,621,2020-11-07,6:0:1 131,549,2020-11-07,7:0:1 111,538,2020-11-07,8:0:1 123,518,2020-11-07,9:0:1 139,528,2020-11-07,10:0:1 147,585,2020-11-07,11:0:1 150,642,2020-11-07,12:0:2 190,667,2020-11-07,13:0:1 215,717,2020-11-07,14:0:1 228,775,2020-11-07,15:0:1 253,818,2020-11-07,16:0:1 300,889,2020-11-07,17:0:1 306,907,2020-11-07,18:0:1 320,939,2020-11-07,19:0:2 350,969,2020-11-07,20:0:1 435,984,2020-11-07,21:0:1 347,976,2020-11-07,22:0:1 301,986,2020-11-07,23:0:1 279,958,2020-11-08,0:0:1 247,879,2020-11-08,1:0:1 228,858,2020-11-08,2:0:2 229,814,2020-11-08,3:0:2 210,740,2020-11-08,4:0:1 178,699,2020-11-08,5:0:1 164,649,2020-11-08,6:0:1 135,576,2020-11-08,7:0:2 136,542,2020-11-08,8:0:1 146,565,2020-11-08,9:0:1 164,549,2020-11-08,10:0:1 163,592,2020-11-08,11:0:1 171,594,2020-11-08,12:0:1 198,608,2020-11-08,13:0:1 225,667,2020-11-08,14:0:2 259,742,2020-11-08,15:0:1 282,814,2020-11-08,16:0:1 288,908,2020-11-08,17:0:1 302,922,2020-11-08,18:0:1 291,1002,2020-11-08,19:0:1 312,998,2020-11-08,20:0:1 329,981,2020-11-08,21:0:2 283,930,2020-11-08,22:0:2 264,867,2020-11-08,23:0:1 238,822,2020-11-09,0:0:1 212,733,2020-11-09,1:0:1 204,723,2020-11-09,2:0:1 193,707,2020-11-09,3:0:1 150,629,2020-11-09,4:0:2 133,583,2020-11-09,5:0:2 129,494,2020-11-09,6:0:1 112,435,2020-11-09,7:0:1 113,440,2020-11-09,8:0:1 114,424,2020-11-09,9:0:2 110,443,2020-11-09,10:0:2 133,480,2020-11-09,11:0:1 132,478,2020-11-09,12:0:1 138,504,2020-11-09,13:0:1 1,0,2020-11-09,14:0:1 141,413,2020-11-09,15:0:1 215,594,2020-11-09,16:0:2 252,681,2020-11-09,17:0:2 251,742,2020-11-09,18:0:1 252,803,2020-11-09,19:0:1 255,840,2020-11-09,20:0:1 249,885,2020-11-09,21:0:1 224,874,2020-11-09,22:0:1 205,800,2020-11-09,23:0:2 208,744,2020-11-10,0:0:2 215,720,2020-11-10,1:0:1 223,666,2020-11-10,2:0:1 177,649,2020-11-10,3:0:1 151,595,2020-11-10,4:0:1 129,511,2020-11-10,5:0:1 107,482,2020-11-10,6:0:1 115,409,2020-11-10,7:0:1 115,409,2020-11-10,8:0:1 124,403,2020-11-10,9:0:1 133,422,2020-11-10,10:0:1 123,455,2020-11-10,11:0:1 127,491,2020-11-10,12:0:2 150,506,2020-11-10,13:0:1 178,560,2020-11-10,14:0:1 199,640,2020-11-10,15:0:1 228,708,2020-11-10,16:0:1 230,763,2020-11-10,17:0:1 253,824,2020-11-10,18:0:1 260,852,2020-11-10,19:0:2 271,832,2020-11-10,20:0:1 259,831,2020-11-10,21:0:1 247,773,2020-11-10,22:0:1 216,704,2020-11-10,23:0:1 231,682,2020-11-11,0:0:1 224,723,2020-11-11,1:0:1 211,716,2020-11-11,2:0:2 207,700,2020-11-11,3:0:1 169,660,2020-11-11,4:0:1 154,582,2020-11-11,5:0:1 137,516,2020-11-11,6:0:1 137,452,2020-11-11,7:0:2 128,411,2020-11-11,8:0:1 137,458,2020-11-11,9:0:1 127,472,2020-11-11,10:0:1 141,489,2020-11-11,11:0:1 145,537,2020-11-11,12:0:1 144,574,2020-11-11,13:0:2 179,608,2020-11-11,14:0:2 211,675,2020-11-11,15:0:1 241,732,2020-11-11,16:0:1 245,781,2020-11-11,17:0:1 262,816,2020-11-11,18:0:1 261,874,2020-11-11,19:0:1 278,894,2020-11-11,20:0:2 289,883,2020-11-11,21:0:2 248,830,2020-11-11,22:0:1 220,777,2020-11-11,23:0:1 215,746,2020-11-12,0:0:1 201,725,2020-11-12,1:0:1 191,680,2020-11-12,2:0:1 181,663,2020-11-12,3:0:2 160,596,2020-11-12,4:0:2 159,547,2020-11-12,5:0:1 139,484,2020-11-12,6:0:1 134,440,2020-11-12,7:0:1 116,421,2020-11-12,8:0:2 112,419,2020-11-12,9:0:1 110,438,2020-11-12,10:0:1 105,453,2020-11-12,11:0:1 119,482,2020-11-12,12:0:1 147,489,2020-11-12,13:0:1 168,545,2020-11-12,14:0:1 211,590,2020-11-12,15:0:2 235,648,2020-11-12,16:0:1 261,696,2020-11-12,17:0:1 262,735,2020-11-12,18:0:1 286,792,2020-11-12,19:0:1 295,829,2020-11-12,20:0:1 271,874,2020-11-12,21:0:1 226,811,2020-11-12,22:0:2 188,757,2020-11-12,23:0:1 204,722,2020-11-13,0:0:1 190,710,2020-11-13,1:0:1 197,693,2020-11-13,2:0:1 190,679,2020-11-13,3:0:1 163,609,2020-11-13,4:0:1 145,527,2020-11-13,5:0:2 133,455,2020-11-13,6:0:1 117,416,2020-11-13,7:0:1 111,415,2020-11-13,8:0:1 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289,907,2020-11-14,23:0:1 248,853,2020-11-15,0:0:1 246,815,2020-11-15,1:0:1 238,806,2020-11-15,2:0:2 215,782,2020-11-15,3:0:1 192,722,2020-11-15,4:0:1 170,583,2020-11-15,6:0:1 153,526,2020-11-15,7:0:1 138,492,2020-11-15,8:0:1 168,462,2020-11-15,9:0:1 157,490,2020-11-15,10:0:1 147,506,2020-11-15,11:0:1 158,552,2020-11-15,12:0:1 186,598,2020-11-15,13:0:2 211,655,2020-11-15,14:0:1 250,701,2020-11-15,15:0:1 320,795,2020-11-15,16:0:1 409,801,2020-11-15,17:0:1 450,835,2020-11-15,18:0:1 516,881,2020-11-15,19:0:1 468,924,2020-11-15,20:0:2 354,895,2020-11-15,21:0:1 322,844,2020-11-15,22:0:1 282,826,2020-11-15,23:0:1 237,838,2020-11-16,0:0:1 224,766,2020-11-16,1:0:1 225,697,2020-11-16,2:0:1 207,651,2020-11-16,3:0:2 190,580,2020-11-16,4:0:1 164,503,2020-11-16,5:0:1 153,459,2020-11-16,6:0:1 121,414,2020-11-16,7:0:2 123,426,2020-11-16,8:0:1 136,419,2020-11-16,9:0:1 107,426,2020-11-16,10:0:1 130,445,2020-11-16,11:0:1 127,444,2020-11-16,12:0:1 132,474,2020-11-16,13:0:1 150,523,2020-11-16,14:0:2 168,567,2020-11-16,15:0:2 223,608,2020-11-16,16:0:1 254,676,2020-11-16,17:0:1 258,723,2020-11-16,18:0:1 290,763,2020-11-16,19:0:1 290,792,2020-11-16,20:0:1 282,811,2020-11-16,21:0:2 274,786,2020-11-16,22:0:1 245,746,2020-11-16,23:0:1 236,731,2020-11-17,0:0:1 246,708,2020-11-17,1:0:1 228,710,2020-11-17,2:0:1 213,679,2020-11-17,3:0:1 172,651,2020-11-17,4:0:2 151,585,2020-11-17,5:0:1 149,479,2020-11-17,6:0:1 143,477,2020-11-17,7:0:1 142,459,2020-11-17,8:0:1 141,416,2020-11-17,9:0:2 123,420,2020-11-17,10:0:1 124,446,2020-11-17,11:0:1 142,468,2020-11-17,12:0:1 135,515,2020-11-17,13:0:1 143,550,2020-11-17,14:0:1 190,593,2020-11-17,15:0:1 220,667,2020-11-17,16:0:2 220,705,2020-11-17,17:0:1 243,741,2020-11-17,18:0:1 255,761,2020-11-17,19:0:1 249,802,2020-11-17,20:0:1 243,771,2020-11-17,21:0:1 228,785,2020-11-17,22:0:1 225,756,2020-11-17,23:0:2 213,698,2020-11-18,0:0:1 212,685,2020-11-18,1:0:1 205,686,2020-11-18,2:0:1 183,659,2020-11-18,3:0:1 161,612,2020-11-18,4:0:1 147,519,2020-11-18,5:0:1 144,492,2020-11-18,6:0:1 133,456,2020-11-18,7:0:1 139,421,2020-11-18,8:0:1 134,421,2020-11-18,9:0:1 121,434,2020-11-18,10:0:1 110,412,2020-11-18,11:0:2 133,475,2020-11-18,12:0:1 135,514,2020-11-18,13:0:1 167,596,2020-11-18,14:0:1 184,648,2020-11-18,15:0:1 214,676,2020-11-18,16:0:1 228,709,2020-11-18,17:0:2 245,747,2020-11-18,18:0:1 276,821,2020-11-18,19:0:1 267,842,2020-11-18,20:0:1 289,826,2020-11-18,21:0:1 272,804,2020-11-18,22:0:1 252,722,2020-11-18,23:0:2 239,719,2020-11-19,0:0:2 213,732,2020-11-19,1:0:1 191,708,2020-11-19,2:0:1 192,668,2020-11-19,3:0:1 168,608,2020-11-19,4:0:1 142,565,2020-11-19,5:0:1 149,512,2020-11-19,6:0:2 141,494,2020-11-19,7:0:1 118,449,2020-11-19,8:0:1 112,451,2020-11-19,9:0:1 109,462,2020-11-19,10:0:1 113,482,2020-11-19,11:0:2 116,494,2020-11-19,12:0:1 140,527,2020-11-19,13:0:1 156,586,2020-11-19,14:0:1 176,614,2020-11-19,15:0:1 220,625,2020-11-19,16:0:1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 Its not looking to good, population growth slowed down a lot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 where did the money from the steam release go 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 I don't see any significant marketing about wurm though. A brief check online doesn't reveal much chatter about the game. Marketing has been one of Wurm's sorest issues over the years and it is still not being redressed. Granted, the game does need a lot of fixes before its score rises in reviews but a marketing campaign is still badly needed. Hell, even partnering up with a few big youtubers is better than nothing at this point. Shame for this game to stay in obscurity after such a long run. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, elentari said: I don't see any significant marketing about wurm though. A brief check online doesn't reveal much chatter about the game. Marketing has been one of Wurm's sorest issues over the years and it is still not being redressed. Granted, the game does need a lot of fixes before its score rises in reviews but a marketing campaign is still badly needed. Hell, even partnering up with a few big youtubers is better than nothing at this point. Shame for this game to stay in obscurity after such a long run. The problem is picking up the correct audience, considering Steam reviews, Wurm is rather a game more suitable for adult/middle-aged people than very young/teenage ones, as the later group rather prefers quick skill gains, epic fights, dragons every day, and they usually have not enough patience to play Wurm which is extremely slow pace game, so they get bored and quit. I think Wurm if correctly managed when it comes to marketing could find some niche, there would be probably never 2k players online at the same time, but the more "adult" group usually has more money and is more "faithful" so it is a good group which also needs some digital entertainment. Edited November 20, 2020 by Platyna Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 There are plenty of "dad gamers" out there :)) . Well kidding, but what I mostly mean is gamers in their 30s, 40s and 50s. Kids might be included. And that's indeed our main player demographic. I'd bet most of our players fall into that age group. Also there are channels out there that are gaming oriented and their demographic is also in the same age range. I agree that you can't really aim wurm at a younger audience these days. Still, attempts should still be made. But i don't see any cohesive marketing plan being formed and led at the moment and that shakes my faith in Wurm's future. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 I would say the main demographic for Wurm is like 25-30+. And it is not like there something not okay with Wurm - such slow pace complex games are needed, and if this niche would be correctly utilized Wurm could come into shine. There are also other issues, that were mentioned in Steam reviews that should be taken into consideration by Wurm staff to make necessary reforms so the project can flourish. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 The data isn't really showing too much here. The fall in the new cluster is somewhat expected due to the post steam rush; Wurm's biggest issue is retention. Looking at how things panned out with Release, we can see that we're on track here to retrace old ground (a little faster this time because there are a lot more sandbox options out there for people who are willing to sink money into a game). The old cluster isn't actually declining on the weekly averages this month, it appears to have steadied out. The population is laughably low (lower than 200 on average), but those who have stayed are those who intend to see things through to the bitter end. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 Steam does takes 1/3 of the money and is also promoting the Game Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 20, 2020 4 hours ago, enoofu said: ...and is also promoting the Game I would neither call this a promotion nor an advertisement, steam is simply listing Wurm in their games list, that is not really a promotion. I mean if you put a product on amazon it is also not promoted their, it is just listed and people can search for it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 21, 2020 There's also been multiple marketing campaigns and will continue to be so. 3 hours ago, Sklo:D said: I would neither call this a promotion nor an advertisement, steam is simply listing Wurm in their games list, that is not really a promotion. I mean if you put a product on amazon it is also not promoted their, it is just listed and people can search for it. Discoverability is a tricky thing. Yes, steam makes us more discoverable through recommendations, analytics etc. But there's also more games out there we're competing against on the same platform. Player counts are poor representations but I understand its the "best" publicly available info, just don't use it as proof of any trends other than the steam launch led to a massive spike, and we will normalise over time Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 21, 2020 i hope marketing isn’t actually what a majority of that money is being put into lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 21, 2020 (edited) @RetrogradeI found Wurm by entering in google: "MMORPG Linux", I think this is your niche number 1, and old people are your niche number 2 (as mentioned above) plus maybe some geeky youth. The cake is smaller but at least you can get a bigger chunk of it. Let's be frank Wurm has no chance to complete with giants such as WoW, but let's be even more frank - WoW is not a game you play 10 years. I played I think all MMORPGs for Linux (and some I helped many years to develop) and this one is so far the best. I think it would be a good idea, that if numbers will drop even more to connect the clusters ASAP and encourage people to move to the old servers and then shut down most of the least populated servers in both clusters or specialize them more, because it is disheartening for a new player when they log in and there is no one on local, and then you walk, and walk and no one is here - this is something that will prevent many people from even trying the game. I think you got some nice input from users on Steam, so you have plenty of data to analyse. That Black Friday sale was a very good move too. Edited November 21, 2020 by Platyna 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 21, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, Retrograde said: Player counts are poor representations but I understand its the "best" publicly available info Oh I don't know... Population is definitely a strong indicator of an mmorpgs popularity and retention capacity. As to the overall "health" of an mmo I'll agree it is somewhat debatable; from a corporate view mmo health is measured in expenditure vs income, whereas, to a player, the health of an mmo is largely weighed in terms of stable population. Stable population here is the term; player count tracks the population a player will see. So, it's definitely a strong indicator of player perception of mmorpg health. However, I will concede that there are better measures for actual player count (a counter that only increments when a unique IP logs into a unique character within a 24 hour period); such data would be a welcome addition to the public domain as it would give a de-facto answer to the player's question of wurm's health. I suppose here we break into the question "if your players think the game is a ghost town mmo, does that make it one", and that's beyond the scope of my study. Edited November 21, 2020 by Etherdrifter 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites