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Etherdrifter

Population Data So Far

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On 10/5/2020 at 12:16 AM, Finnn said:

should we be worried, now?

 

I wouldn't say so; the old cluster may suffer from underpopulation but that is a very natural path for mmorpg servers to take; especially if there is a newer cluster.  As much as I enjoy poking fun at Ekcin for being wrong about us not hitting sub-200 averages (especially since they bought it up constantly), I don't think the old cluster is in any danger of being killed off yet.

 

It may well end up a "ghost town"; but that was rather the developers' plan and I can't see them sinking the islands when their own plans work out.

 

15 hours ago, wipeout said:

Why? the cost to run the servers is still paid for big time by the amount of players playing and the "core" staff group's operational cost isnt that high anyway and if it comes down to it im sure they can just stop reimbursing @Retrogradehis energy drinks on late nights or early mornings and it should be fine ;)

 

Sounds fiscally sound to me; might be worth doing that just in case...

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Wow so my halfbaked analysis just ballparking pop stats as i play wasn't too far off? I thought we lost like ~200 average on NFI.

What's difficult with a dataset like this though is it could be just as simple as people playing their alts less

I mean i don't have one so I can't comment on it but maybe alt use is more prevalent in the early days until your main gets higher?

 

Also i can buy you an energy drink if you want Retro lol

Edited by Andru
  • Like 1

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4 hours ago, Andru said:

Wow so my halfbaked analysis just ballparking pop stats as i play wasn't too far off? I thought we lost like ~200 average on NFI.

What's difficult with a dataset like this though is it could be just as simple as people playing their alts less

I mean i don't have one so I can't comment on it but maybe alt use is more prevalent in the early days until your main gets higher?

 

Also i can buy you an energy drink if you want Retro lol

 

Yup; and more data is on the way when I can be bothered to dump it!

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Spoiler

116,704,2020-10-02,11:0:2
106,719,2020-10-02,12:0:1
128,730,2020-10-02,13:0:1
151,751,2020-10-02,14:0:1
174,842,2020-10-02,15:0:1
201,974,2020-10-02,16:0:1
210,991,2020-10-02,17:0:1
209,1045,2020-10-02,18:0:2
231,1125,2020-10-02,19:0:1
245,1156,2020-10-02,20:0:1
220,1121,2020-10-02,21:0:1
222,1150,2020-10-02,22:0:1
209,1133,2020-10-02,23:0:1
197,1050,2020-10-03,0:0:1
190,1039,2020-10-03,1:0:2
195,998,2020-10-03,2:0:1
202,930,2020-10-03,3:0:1
195,853,2020-10-03,4:0:1
198,795,2020-10-03,5:0:1
177,738,2020-10-03,6:0:1
151,714,2020-10-03,7:0:1
127,702,2020-10-03,8:0:1
118,697,2020-10-03,9:0:1
122,742,2020-10-03,10:0:1
129,803,2020-10-03,11:0:1
129,840,2020-10-03,12:0:1
144,900,2020-10-03,13:0:2
169,939,2020-10-03,14:0:1
211,1064,2020-10-03,15:0:1
232,1151,2020-10-03,16:0:1
284,1196,2020-10-03,17:0:1
319,1196,2020-10-03,18:0:1
407,1158,2020-10-03,19:0:1
332,1237,2020-10-03,20:0:2
293,1257,2020-10-03,21:0:1
265,1224,2020-10-03,22:0:1
240,1174,2020-10-03,23:0:1
228,1058,2020-10-04,0:0:1
217,992,2020-10-04,1:0:1
223,929,2020-10-04,2:0:2
208,928,2020-10-04,3:0:2
194,880,2020-10-04,4:0:1
163,827,2020-10-04,5:0:1
163,781,2020-10-04,6:0:1
141,722,2020-10-04,7:0:2
141,662,2020-10-04,8:0:2
137,682,2020-10-04,9:0:1
140,675,2020-10-04,10:0:1
169,709,2020-10-04,11:0:1
195,752,2020-10-04,12:0:1
197,801,2020-10-04,13:0:1
228,890,2020-10-04,14:0:2
232,979,2020-10-04,15:0:1
250,1074,2020-10-04,16:0:1
264,1152,2020-10-04,17:0:1
268,1224,2020-10-04,18:0:1
271,1307,2020-10-04,19:0:1
288,1324,2020-10-04,20:0:1
281,1309,2020-10-04,21:0:2
233,1242,2020-10-04,22:0:1
213,1116,2020-10-04,23:0:1
217,1039,2020-10-05,0:0:1
211,952,2020-10-05,1:0:1
203,887,2020-10-05,2:0:1
193,883,2020-10-05,3:0:1
184,797,2020-10-05,4:0:2
157,733,2020-10-05,5:0:2
124,666,2020-10-05,6:0:1
118,604,2020-10-05,7:0:1
126,564,2020-10-05,8:0:1
102,548,2020-10-05,9:0:2
106,621,2020-10-05,10:0:2
108,604,2020-10-05,11:0:1
107,611,2020-10-05,12:0:1
138,653,2020-10-05,13:0:1
141,686,2020-10-05,14:0:1
154,764,2020-10-05,15:0:1
173,879,2020-10-05,16:0:2
178,923,2020-10-05,17:0:2
202,1007,2020-10-05,18:0:1
212,1069,2020-10-05,19:0:1
233,1083,2020-10-05,20:0:1
218,1060,2020-10-05,21:0:1
234,1082,2020-10-05,22:0:1
221,995,2020-10-05,23:0:1
186,897,2020-10-06,0:0:2
191,868,2020-10-06,1:0:1
204,902,2020-10-06,2:0:1
186,856,2020-10-06,3:0:1
162,778,2020-10-06,4:0:1
144,700,2020-10-06,5:0:1
121,612,2020-10-06,6:0:1
105,537,2020-10-06,7:0:1
121,522,2020-10-06,8:0:1
131,551,2020-10-06,9:0:1
136,561,2020-10-06,10:0:1
125,604,2020-10-06,11:0:1
130,620,2020-10-06,12:0:2
125,660,2020-10-06,13:0:2
141,743,2020-10-06,14:0:1
172,820,2020-10-06,15:0:1
203,848,2020-10-06,16:0:1
215,934,2020-10-06,17:0:1
204,971,2020-10-06,18:0:1
206,1055,2020-10-06,19:0:1
234,1116,2020-10-06,20:0:2
238,1127,2020-10-06,21:0:1
234,1051,2020-10-06,22:0:1
201,995,2020-10-06,23:0:1
194,895,2020-10-07,0:0:1
215,867,2020-10-07,1:0:1
209,888,2020-10-07,2:0:1
189,857,2020-10-07,3:0:2
170,776,2020-10-07,4:0:1
146,711,2020-10-07,5:0:1
138,617,2020-10-07,6:0:1
122,581,2020-10-07,7:0:1
108,588,2020-10-07,8:0:2
108,572,2020-10-07,9:0:1
105,551,2020-10-07,10:0:1
110,549,2020-10-07,11:0:1
116,585,2020-10-07,12:0:1
118,609,2020-10-07,13:0:1
145,694,2020-10-07,14:0:1
178,768,2020-10-07,15:0:2
216,853,2020-10-07,16:0:1
214,928,2020-10-07,17:0:1
221,972,2020-10-07,18:0:1
255,972,2020-10-07,19:0:1
251,1044,2020-10-07,20:0:1
246,1042,2020-10-07,21:0:2
240,1001,2020-10-07,22:0:2
217,910,2020-10-07,23:0:1
208,855,2020-10-08,0:0:1
197,823,2020-10-08,1:0:1
177,830,2020-10-08,2:0:1
168,804,2020-10-08,3:0:1
157,722,2020-10-08,4:0:2
132,635,2020-10-08,5:0:2
111,597,2020-10-08,6:0:1
104,535,2020-10-08,7:0:1
107,536,2020-10-08,8:0:1
103,549,2020-10-08,9:0:2
112,531,2020-10-08,10:0:1
128,543,2020-10-08,11:0:1
118,564,2020-10-08,12:0:1
131,611,2020-10-08,13:0:1
37,176,2020-10-08,14:0:1
144,555,2020-10-08,15:0:2
187,677,2020-10-08,16:0:2
202,782,2020-10-08,17:0:1
204,876,2020-10-08,18:0:1
213,950,2020-10-08,19:0:1
220,965,2020-10-08,20:0:1
236,1009,2020-10-08,21:0:1
214,977,2020-10-08,22:0:1
182,928,2020-10-08,23:0:2
170,854,2020-10-09,0:0:1
171,789,2020-10-09,1:0:1
174,757,2020-10-09,2:0:1
186,729,2020-10-09,3:0:1
177,723,2020-10-09,4:0:1
139,625,2020-10-09,5:0:1
126,556,2020-10-09,6:0:2
128,499,2020-10-09,7:0:1
134,506,2020-10-09,8:0:1
120,524,2020-10-09,9:0:1
120,535,2020-10-09,10:0:2
105,526,2020-10-09,11:0:2
121,552,2020-10-09,12:0:1
159,587,2020-10-09,13:0:1
164,672,2020-10-09,14:0:1
177,761,2020-10-09,15:0:1
198,821,2020-10-09,16:0:1
206,872,2020-10-09,17:0:1
223,924,2020-10-09,18:0:2
217,1001,2020-10-09,19:0:1
226,1027,2020-10-09,20:0:1
214,1021,2020-10-09,21:0:1
227,1051,2020-10-09,22:0:1
210,987,2020-10-09,23:0:1
182,938,2020-10-10,0:0:1
195,857,2020-10-10,1:0:2
192,820,2020-10-10,2:0:2
195,823,2020-10-10,3:0:1
185,812,2020-10-10,4:0:1
167,786,2020-10-10,5:0:1
152,674,2020-10-10,6:0:1
130,622,2020-10-10,7:0:2
112,574,2020-10-10,8:0:1
121,537,2020-10-10,9:0:1
130,575,2020-10-10,10:0:1
139,626,2020-10-10,11:0:1
143,669,2020-10-10,12:0:1
178,719,2020-10-10,13:0:2
203,750,2020-10-10,14:0:2
225,842,2020-10-10,15:0:1
240,898,2020-10-10,16:0:1
249,958,2020-10-10,17:0:1
244,992,2020-10-10,18:0:1
288,1069,2020-10-10,19:0:1
294,1124,2020-10-10,20:0:2
288,1120,2020-10-10,21:0:1
294,1093,2020-10-10,22:0:1
281,1063,2020-10-10,23:0:1
238,988,2020-10-11,0:0:1
222,904,2020-10-11,1:0:1
207,873,2020-10-11,2:0:1
201,834,2020-10-11,3:0:2
190,802,2020-10-11,4:0:2
176,749,2020-10-11,5:0:1
150,686,2020-10-11,6:0:1
140,610,2020-10-11,7:0:1
117,575,2020-10-11,8:0:2
142,579,2020-10-11,9:0:1
139,584,2020-10-11,10:0:1
148,641,2020-10-11,11:0:1
162,663,2020-10-11,12:0:1
172,723,2020-10-11,13:0:1
197,799,2020-10-11,14:0:1
239,880,2020-10-11,15:0:2
265,961,2020-10-11,16:0:2
267,1037,2020-10-11,17:0:1
271,1084,2020-10-11,18:0:1
294,1097,2020-10-11,19:0:1
297,1142,2020-10-11,20:0:1
285,1136,2020-10-11,21:0:1
278,1129,2020-10-11,22:0:1
247,1028,2020-10-11,23:0:2
210,937,2020-10-12,0:0:1
190,893,2020-10-12,1:0:1
178,896,2020-10-12,2:0:1
191,871,2020-10-12,3:0:1
170,781,2020-10-12,4:0:1
153,715,2020-10-12,5:0:2
120,643,2020-10-12,6:0:2
117,547,2020-10-12,7:0:1
116,530,2020-10-12,8:0:1
124,515,2020-10-12,9:0:1
132,523,2020-10-12,10:0:2
130,538,2020-10-12,11:0:1
129,558,2020-10-12,12:0:1
128,569,2020-10-12,13:0:1
157,650,2020-10-12,14:0:1
178,721,2020-10-12,15:0:1
192,808,2020-10-12,16:0:1
237,909,2020-10-12,17:0:2
225,984,2020-10-12,18:0:1
259,1125,2020-10-12,19:0:1
254,1156,2020-10-12,20:0:1
255,1141,2020-10-12,21:0:1
251,1100,2020-10-12,22:0:1
239,1007,2020-10-12,23:0:1
230,913,2020-10-13,0:0:2
220,847,2020-10-13,1:0:1
188,834,2020-10-13,2:0:1
168,796,2020-10-13,3:0:1
152,739,2020-10-13,4:0:1
141,631,2020-10-13,5:0:1
123,558,2020-10-13,6:0:1
111,490,2020-10-13,7:0:1
108,511,2020-10-13,8:0:1
100,525,2020-10-13,9:0:1
105,520,2020-10-13,10:0:1
107,532,2020-10-13,11:0:1
122,567,2020-10-13,12:0:2
145,584,2020-10-13,13:0:1
156,647,2020-10-13,14:0:1
160,741,2020-10-13,15:0:1
187,809,2020-10-13,16:0:1
197,869,2020-10-13,17:0:1
217,944,2020-10-13,18:0:1
235,990,2020-10-13,19:0:2
236,999,2020-10-13,20:0:2
230,1005,2020-10-13,21:0:1
229,976,2020-10-13,22:0:1
202,893,2020-10-13,23:0:1
163,843,2020-10-14,0:0:1
168,823,2020-10-14,1:0:1
191,851,2020-10-14,2:0:2
162,800,2020-10-14,3:0:1
159,745,2020-10-14,4:0:1
140,696,2020-10-14,5:0:1
109,564,2020-10-14,6:0:1
106,527,2020-10-14,7:0:2
105,489,2020-10-14,8:0:1
105,455,2020-10-14,9:0:1
115,439,2020-10-14,10:0:1
113,479,2020-10-14,11:0:1
130,546,2020-10-14,12:0:1
147,534,2020-10-14,13:0:1
148,629,2020-10-14,14:0:1
164,672,2020-10-14,15:0:2
193,746,2020-10-14,16:0:1
198,828,2020-10-14,17:0:1
206,868,2020-10-14,18:0:1
226,998,2020-10-14,19:0:1
264,987,2020-10-14,20:0:1
270,1041,2020-10-14,21:0:1
225,971,2020-10-14,22:0:1
208,935,2020-10-14,23:0:2
212,830,2020-10-15,0:0:1
180,769,2020-10-15,1:0:1
172,731,2020-10-15,2:0:1
163,741,2020-10-15,3:0:1
153,686,2020-10-15,4:0:1
135,612,2020-10-15,5:0:2
125,539,2020-10-15,6:0:2
127,477,2020-10-15,7:0:1
109,455,2020-10-15,8:0:1
106,472,2020-10-15,9:0:1
106,464,2020-10-15,10:0:1
109,516,2020-10-15,11:0:2
104,524,2020-10-15,12:0:1
124,531,2020-10-15,13:0:1
1,0,2020-10-15,14:0:1
92,436,2020-10-15,15:0:1
155,627,2020-10-15,16:0:1
193,716,2020-10-15,17:0:1
197,778,2020-10-15,18:0:2
198,877,2020-10-15,19:0:1
213,924,2020-10-15,20:0:1
213,957,2020-10-15,21:0:1
226,938,2020-10-15,22:0:1
216,865,2020-10-15,23:0:1
186,832,2020-10-16,0:0:1
192,802,2020-10-16,1:0:2
181,801,2020-10-16,2:0:2
177,786,2020-10-16,3:0:1
174,713,2020-10-16,4:0:1
162,649,2020-10-16,5:0:1
146,583,2020-10-16,6:0:1
125,508,2020-10-16,7:0:1
115,506,2020-10-16,8:0:1
105,476,2020-10-16,9:0:1
117,517,2020-10-16,10:0:1
120,566,2020-10-16,11:0:1
118,559,2020-10-16,12:0:1
130,565,2020-10-16,13:0:2
151,576,2020-10-16,14:0:1
179,694,2020-10-16,15:0:1
193,795,2020-10-16,16:0:1

 

 

Here we have the next dump; I'll not include a detailed analysis as there isn't much to say yet save that the average population for this month is looking to be around 180 on the old cluster!

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This week's data dump

 

Spoiler

198,866,2020-10-16,17:0:1
234,893,2020-10-16,18:0:1
255,949,2020-10-16,19:0:1
226,1013,2020-10-16,20:0:2
219,1003,2020-10-16,21:0:1
213,979,2020-10-16,22:0:1
232,935,2020-10-16,23:0:1
205,857,2020-10-17,0:0:1
213,863,2020-10-17,1:0:1
201,849,2020-10-17,2:0:1
170,832,2020-10-17,3:0:2
158,798,2020-10-17,4:0:1
147,729,2020-10-17,5:0:1
128,695,2020-10-17,6:0:1
121,660,2020-10-17,7:0:1
122,589,2020-10-17,8:0:2
103,587,2020-10-17,9:0:1
128,601,2020-10-17,10:0:1
137,630,2020-10-17,11:0:1
133,636,2020-10-17,12:0:1
165,703,2020-10-17,13:0:1
172,743,2020-10-17,14:0:1
213,825,2020-10-17,15:0:2
230,892,2020-10-17,16:0:1
266,963,2020-10-17,17:0:1
264,1035,2020-10-17,18:0:1
298,1062,2020-10-17,19:0:1
278,1091,2020-10-17,20:0:1
289,1107,2020-10-17,21:0:1
262,1077,2020-10-17,22:0:2
254,1019,2020-10-17,23:0:1
234,940,2020-10-18,0:0:1
222,875,2020-10-18,1:0:1
226,852,2020-10-18,2:0:1
205,782,2020-10-18,3:0:1
169,774,2020-10-18,4:0:1
161,726,2020-10-18,5:0:2
146,693,2020-10-18,6:0:1
148,611,2020-10-18,7:0:1
133,597,2020-10-18,8:0:1
118,595,2020-10-18,9:0:2
139,611,2020-10-18,10:0:1
126,646,2020-10-18,11:0:1
150,662,2020-10-18,12:0:1
175,699,2020-10-18,13:0:1
192,751,2020-10-18,14:0:1
226,806,2020-10-18,15:0:2
277,891,2020-10-18,16:0:2
299,938,2020-10-18,17:0:1
343,1074,2020-10-18,18:0:1
408,1188,2020-10-18,19:0:1
346,1214,2020-10-18,20:0:1
288,1190,2020-10-18,21:0:1
272,1128,2020-10-18,22:0:1
220,1032,2020-10-18,23:0:2
199,920,2020-10-19,0:0:1
199,855,2020-10-19,1:0:1
196,803,2020-10-19,2:0:1
191,776,2020-10-19,3:0:1
169,718,2020-10-19,4:0:1
158,658,2020-10-19,5:0:1
132,571,2020-10-19,6:0:2
114,491,2020-10-19,7:0:1
98,481,2020-10-19,8:0:1
96,473,2020-10-19,9:0:1
118,478,2020-10-19,10:0:1
118,492,2020-10-19,11:0:2
135,518,2020-10-19,12:0:2
140,571,2020-10-19,13:0:1
157,615,2020-10-19,14:0:1
192,686,2020-10-19,15:0:1
221,723,2020-10-19,16:0:1
223,834,2020-10-19,17:0:1
223,910,2020-10-19,18:0:1
246,1012,2020-10-19,19:0:2
254,997,2020-10-19,20:0:1
233,1004,2020-10-19,21:0:1
229,976,2020-10-19,22:0:1
206,916,2020-10-19,23:0:1
199,864,2020-10-20,0:0:1
184,805,2020-10-20,1:0:1
180,790,2020-10-20,2:0:2
158,774,2020-10-20,3:0:1
146,735,2020-10-20,4:0:1
134,604,2020-10-20,5:0:1
120,558,2020-10-20,6:0:1
106,470,2020-10-20,7:0:2
101,485,2020-10-20,8:0:1
107,464,2020-10-20,9:0:1
110,498,2020-10-20,10:0:1
109,488,2020-10-20,11:0:1
119,497,2020-10-20,12:0:1
132,523,2020-10-20,13:0:1
156,602,2020-10-20,14:0:2
175,664,2020-10-20,15:0:1
176,736,2020-10-20,16:0:1
189,842,2020-10-20,17:0:1
215,934,2020-10-20,18:0:1
229,990,2020-10-20,19:0:1
231,993,2020-10-20,20:0:1
235,1022,2020-10-20,21:0:2
229,1015,2020-10-20,22:0:2
197,911,2020-10-20,23:0:1
214,842,2020-10-21,0:0:1
202,792,2020-10-21,1:0:1
203,740,2020-10-21,2:0:1
184,763,2020-10-21,3:0:1
157,727,2020-10-21,4:0:2
129,656,2020-10-21,5:0:2
112,584,2020-10-21,6:0:1
113,517,2020-10-21,7:0:1
106,482,2020-10-21,8:0:1
102,490,2020-10-21,9:0:2
121,476,2020-10-21,10:0:1
109,509,2020-10-21,11:0:1
118,559,2020-10-21,12:0:1
143,554,2020-10-21,13:0:1
164,625,2020-10-21,14:0:1
207,693,2020-10-21,15:0:1
215,750,2020-10-21,16:0:2
221,801,2020-10-21,17:0:2
222,877,2020-10-21,18:0:1
228,934,2020-10-21,19:0:1
238,966,2020-10-21,20:0:1
250,975,2020-10-21,21:0:1
255,946,2020-10-21,22:0:1
228,903,2020-10-21,23:0:2
193,822,2020-10-22,0:0:2
181,826,2020-10-22,1:0:1
191,821,2020-10-22,2:0:1
182,804,2020-10-22,3:0:1
156,747,2020-10-22,4:0:1
128,661,2020-10-22,5:0:1
112,565,2020-10-22,6:0:1
100,515,2020-10-22,7:0:1
85,502,2020-10-22,8:0:1
99,477,2020-10-22,9:0:1
119,526,2020-10-22,10:0:1
111,514,2020-10-22,11:0:2
119,523,2020-10-22,12:0:1
147,562,2020-10-22,13:0:1
155,599,2020-10-22,14:0:1
178,675,2020-10-22,15:0:1
190,761,2020-10-22,16:0:1
191,847,2020-10-22,17:0:1
211,864,2020-10-22,18:0:2
208,952,2020-10-22,19:0:2
231,986,2020-10-22,20:0:1
235,1002,2020-10-22,21:0:1
230,699,2020-10-22,22:0:1
203,843,2020-10-22,23:0:1
205,829,2020-10-23,0:0:1
209,798,2020-10-23,1:0:1
195,799,2020-10-23,2:0:2
175,801,2020-10-23,3:0:1
167,796,2020-10-23,4:0:1
147,598,2020-10-23,5:0:1
136,558,2020-10-23,6:0:1
128,518,2020-10-23,7:0:2
122,501,2020-10-23,8:0:1
123,507,2020-10-23,9:0:1
127,514,2020-10-23,10:0:1
144,526,2020-10-23,11:0:1
136,533,2020-10-23,12:0:1
157,564,2020-10-23,13:0:2
162,635,2020-10-23,14:0:2
24,178,2020-10-23,15:0:1
207,614,2020-10-23,16:0:1

 

So; where are we so far this month?  Well the graph below shows the weekly average population taken at the dates given

 

Wurm-Average-Populations.png

 

Well as we can see from the graph above, the populations have been dropping steadily on both clusters; indeed the new cluster is now shedding players at a rather rapid rate!

 

Date OLD NEW
31/08/2020 97.02% 96.10%
07/09/2020 101.18% 92.23%
14/09/2020 89.63% 95.16%
21/09/2020 99.47% 92.33%
28/09/2020 93.30% 91.52%
05/10/2020 100.28% 95.56%
12/10/2020 100.41% 89.47%
19/10/2020 98.24% 95.52%

 

The table above shows the percentage change from the previous month of the population.  So on 05/10/2020 the weekly average was 0.28% higher than the week before (which is less than one extra person).

 

The new cluster is declining at a steady rate which shows no sign of slowing down yet; it's still quite erratic.  The old cluster appears to be stabilising out, hopefully we'll see the decline stop, if not reverse.  Of course; historically we can expect a boost around Christmas, though this past year has left me far from optimistic.

 

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And here is the last bit of data for this month!

 

Spoiler

259    658    2020-10-23    17    0    1
263    875    2020-10-23    18    0    1
279    952    2020-10-23    19    0    1
269    1027    2020-10-23    20    0    2
315    1023    2020-10-23    21    0    2
295    989    2020-10-23    22    0    1
263    984    2020-10-23    23    0    1
259    948    2020-10-24    0    0    1
261    906    2020-10-24    1    0    1
253    855    2020-10-24    2    0    1
229    861    2020-10-24    3    0    2
190    828    2020-10-24    4    0    2
183    773    2020-10-24    5    0    1
161    649    2020-10-24    6    0    1
145    598    2020-10-24    7    0    1
135    571    2020-10-24    8    0    1
136    544    2020-10-24    9    0    2
158    562    2020-10-24    10    0    1
150    579    2020-10-24    11    0    1
171    635    2020-10-24    12    0    1
214    675    2020-10-24    13    0    1
218    785    2020-10-24    14    0    1
232    837    2020-10-24    15    0    1
242    892    2020-10-24    16    0    2
249    878    2020-10-24    17    0    1
287    939    2020-10-24    18    0    1
294    979    2020-10-24    19    0    1
315    1046    2020-10-24    20    0    1
303    1036    2020-10-24    21    0    1
293    1002    2020-10-24    22    0    1
276    984    2020-10-24    23    0    2
257    914    2020-10-25    0    0    1
235    950    2020-10-25    1    0    1
218    921    2020-10-25    1    0    1
210    887    2020-10-25    2    0    1
197    844    2020-10-25    3    0    1
203    791    2020-10-25    4    0    2
184    724    2020-10-25    5    0    2
166    622    2020-10-25    6    0    1
154    572    2020-10-25    7    0    1
150    545    2020-10-25    8    0    1
161    539    2020-10-25    9    0    2
167    591    2020-10-25    10    0    2
192    585    2020-10-25    11    0    1
210    641    2020-10-25    12    0    1
240    675    2020-10-25    13    0    1
267    762    2020-10-25    14    0    1
302    813    2020-10-25    15    0    1
313    903    2020-10-25    16    0    1
309    964    2020-10-25    17    0    2
322    1037    2020-10-25    18    0    1
323    1057    2020-10-25    19    0    1
312    1037    2020-10-25    20    0    1
315    1022    2020-10-25    21    0    1
292    970    2020-10-25    22    0    1
254    917    2020-10-25    23    0    2
254    878    2020-10-26    0    0    1
249    833    2020-10-26    1    0    1
226    788    2020-10-26    2    0    1
198    716    2020-10-26    3    0    1
173    655    2020-10-26    4    0    1
142    580    2020-10-26    5    0    1
129    513    2020-10-26    6    0    2
108    474    2020-10-26    7    0    1
114    443    2020-10-26    8    0    1
130    469    2020-10-26    9    0    1
137    516    2020-10-26    10    0    1
124    526    2020-10-26    11    0    2
135    557    2020-10-26    12    0    1
161    574    2020-10-26    13    0    1
176    632    2020-10-26    14    0    1
187    675    2020-10-26    15    0    1
228    771    2020-10-26    16    0    1
238    844    2020-10-26    17    0    1
269    909    2020-10-26    18    0    2
274    969    2020-10-26    19    0    1
273    992    2020-10-26    20    0    1
265    971    2020-10-26    21    0    1
266    921    2020-10-26    22    0    1
243    871    2020-10-26    23    0    1
208    831    2020-10-27    0    0    1
228    792    2020-10-27    1    0    2
201    750    2020-10-27    2    0    1
191    738    2020-10-27    3    0    1
165    666    2020-10-27    4    0    1
132    558    2020-10-27    5    0    1
110    504    2020-10-27    6    0    1
96    465    2020-10-27    7    0    1
109    455    2020-10-27    8    0    1
113    461    2020-10-27    9    0    1
115    505    2020-10-27    10    0    1
131    524    2020-10-27    11    0    1
142    527    2020-10-27    12    0    2
2    0    2020-10-27    13    0    2
133    472    2020-10-27    14    0    1
191    612    2020-10-27    15    0    1
227    716    2020-10-27    16    0    1
231    801    2020-10-27    17    0    1
264    857    2020-10-27    18    0    1
268    899    2020-10-27    19    0    2
294    890    2020-10-27    20    0    2
274    889    2020-10-27    21    0    1
254    893    2020-10-27    22    0    1
246    838    2020-10-27    23    0    1
262    833    2020-10-28    0    0    1
257    810    2020-10-28    1    0    1
242    786    2020-10-28    2    0    1
203    739    2020-10-28    3    0    2
150    607    2020-10-28    4    0    1
136    528    2020-10-28    5    0    1
129    466    2020-10-28    6    0    1
117    440    2020-10-28    7    0    2
119    454    2020-10-28    8    0    1
131    463    2020-10-28    9    0    1
131    500    2020-10-28    10    0    1
134    552    2020-10-28    11    0    1
145    584    2020-10-28    12    0    1
162    603    2020-10-28    13    0    1
201    630    2020-10-28    14    0    2
211    681    2020-10-28    15    0    2
217    738    2020-10-28    16    0    1
244    785    2020-10-28    17    0    1
262    834    2020-10-28    18    0    1
292    939    2020-10-28    19    0    1
298    949    2020-10-28    20    0    1
269    903    2020-10-28    21    0    2
257    894    2020-10-28    22    0    1
232    828    2020-10-28    23    0    1
214    821    2020-10-29    0    0    1
215    826    2020-10-29    1    0    1
198    769    2020-10-29    2    0    1
190    739    2020-10-29    3    0    1
170    651    2020-10-29    4    0    1
139    563    2020-10-29    5    0    2
124    510    2020-10-29    6    0    1
124    504    2020-10-29    7    0    1
126    474    2020-10-29    8    0    1
122    468    2020-10-29    9    0    2
129    473    2020-10-29    10    0    2
135    536    2020-10-29    11    0    1
155    534    2020-10-29    12    0    1
114    468    2020-10-29    13    0    1
100    381    2020-10-29    14    0    1
163    568    2020-10-29    15    0    1
199    670    2020-10-29    16    0    1
222    753    2020-10-29    17    0    2
252    822    2020-10-29    18    0    1
281    918    2020-10-29    19    0    1
310    958    2020-10-29    20    0    1
296    947    2020-10-29    21    0    1
259    931    2020-10-29    22    0    1
248    885    2020-10-29    23    0    1
262    847    2020-10-30    0    0    2
249    802    2020-10-30    1    0    2
222    799    2020-10-30    2    0    1
190    680    2020-10-30    3    0    1
167    639    2020-10-30    4    0    1
160    562    2020-10-30    5    0    1
139    493    2020-10-30    6    0    1
126    476    2020-10-30    7    0    1
126    468    2020-10-30    8    0    1
126    493    2020-10-30    9    0    1
147    492    2020-10-30    10    0    1
154    548    2020-10-30    11    0    2
148    560    2020-10-30    12    0    2
164    607    2020-10-30    13    0    1
194    666    2020-10-30    14    0    1
223    727    2020-10-30    15    0    1
249    814    2020-10-30    16    0    1
231    873    2020-10-30    17    0    1
255    926    2020-10-30    18    0    2
254    924    2020-10-30    19    0    2
273    988    2020-10-30    20    0    1
269    924    2020-10-30    21    0    1
256    950    2020-10-30    22    0    1
250    950    2020-10-30    23    0    1
240    960    2020-10-31    0    0    1
225    943    2020-10-31    1    0    2
223    896    2020-10-31    2    0    2
198    824    2020-10-31    3    0    1
180    758    2020-10-31    4    0    1
156    732    2020-10-31    5    0    1
135    627    2020-10-31    6    0    1
127    581    2020-10-31    7    0    2
139    575    2020-10-31    8    0    1
141    570    2020-10-31    9    0    1
145    561    2020-10-31    10    0    1
178    602    2020-10-31    11    0    1
173    678    2020-10-31    12    0    1
206    704    2020-10-31    13    0    1
238    779    2020-10-31    14    0    2
249    832    2020-10-31    15    0    1
228    782    2020-10-31    16    0    1
164    421    2020-10-31    17    0    1
292    759    2020-10-31    18    0    1
313    894    2020-10-31    19    0    1
337    990    2020-10-31    20    0    2
298    960    2020-10-31    21    0    1
317    932    2020-10-31    22    0    1
299    898    2020-10-31    23    0    1
267    844    2020-11-01    0    0    1
235    809    2020-11-01    1    0    1
219    768    2020-11-01    2    0    1
210    747    2020-11-01    3    0    2
201    726    2020-11-01    4    0    1
187    648    2020-11-01    5    0    1
155    562    2020-11-01    6    0    1
147    502    2020-11-01    7    0    2
143    504    2020-11-01    8    0    1
167    495    2020-11-01    9    0    1
175    514    2020-11-01    10    0    1
194    550    2020-11-01    11    0    1
212    587    2020-11-01    12    0    1
223    683    2020-11-01    13    0    1
262    780    2020-11-01    14    0    2
259    815    2020-11-01    15    0    2
300    895    2020-11-01    16    0    1
310    941    2020-11-01    17    0    1
315    1009    2020-11-01    18    0    1
315    1051    2020-11-01    19    0    1
325    1068    2020-11-01    20    0    1
325    1049    2020-11-01    21    0    1
291    1013    2020-11-01    22    0    2

 

 

So where are we compared to last month?  I'll draw up a report tomorrow; too tired at the moment!  However I can say the average population on the old cluster this month was 186.3627; so down a bit from last month.  More summary stats tomorrow!

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Alright, so here it is; the monthly summary:

 

    OLD     NEW     TOTAL     GROWTH          
Date O-Min O-Avg O-Max N-Min N-Avg M-Max Min Average Max O-Growth N-Growth T-Growth Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max MONTHLY AVG
01/10/2020 1 160.2917 271 0 784.1667 1087 1 472.2292 1087 -5.333333333 -111 -58.1667        
02/10/2020 106 174.9583 245 639 872 1156 106 523.4792 1156 14.66666667 87.83333333 51.25        
03/10/2020 118 209.4167 407 697 974.875 1257 118 592.1458 1257 34.45833333 102.875 68.66667        
04/10/2020 137 210.1667 288 662 958.9583 1324 137 584.5625 1324 0.75 -15.9166667 -7.58333        
05/10/2020 102 169.1667 234 548 821.25 1083 102 495.2083 1083 -41 -137.708333 -89.3542 1 180.1548 407  
06/10/2020 105 171.4583 238 522 805.3333 1127 105 488.3958 1127 2.291666667 -15.9166667 -6.8125        
07/10/2020 105 176.2917 255 549 784.5833 1044 105 480.4375 1044 4.833333333 -20.75 -7.95833        
08/10/2020 37 158 236 176 709.5833 1009 37 433.7917 1009 -18.29166667 -75 -46.6458        
09/10/2020 105 170.5 227 499 745.7917 1051 105 458.1458 1051 12.5 36.20833333 24.35417        
10/10/2020 112 201.125 294 537 830.875 1124 112 516 1124 30.625 85.08333333 57.85417        
11/10/2020 117 210.1667 297 575 854.3333 1142 117 532.25 1142 9.041666667 23.45833333 16.25        
12/10/2020 116 180.625 259 515 796.5417 1156 116 488.5833 1156 -29.54166667 -57.7916667 -43.6667 37 180.8929 297  
13/10/2020 100 169.5417 236 490 746.6667 1005 100 458.1042 1005 -11.08333333 -49.875 -30.4792        
14/10/2020 105 167.2917 270 439 727.75 1041 105 447.5208 1041 -2.25 -18.9166667 -10.5833        
15/10/2020 1 151.2083 226 0 644.375 957 1 397.7917 957 -16.08333333 -83.375 -49.7292        
16/10/2020 105 172.8333 255 476 731.9167 1013 105 452.375 1013 21.625 87.54166667 54.58333        
17/10/2020 103 194.0417 298 587 826.7917 1107 103 510.4167 1107 21.20833333 94.875 58.04167        
18/10/2020 118 217.625 408 595 844.7917 1214 118 531.2083 1214 23.58333333 18 20.79167        
19/10/2020 96 176.9583 254 473 728.25 1012 96 452.6042 1012 -40.66666667 -116.541667 -78.6042 1 177.7143 408  
20/10/2020 101 164.0417 235 464 719.3333 1022 101 441.6875 1022 -12.91666667 -8.91666667 -10.9167        
21/10/2020 102 176.7083 255 476 715.0417 975 102 445.875 975 12.66666667 -4.29166667 4.1875        
22/10/2020 85 164.7917 235 477 712.2083 1002 85 438.5 1002 -11.91666667 -2.83333333 -7.375        
23/10/2020 24 187.7917 315 178 699.0417 1027 24 443.4167 1027 23 -13.1666667 4.916667        
24/10/2020 135 223.0833 315 544 806.75 1046 135 514.9167 1046 35.29166667 107.7083333 71.5        
25/10/2020 150 238.12 323 539 811.32 1057 150 524.72 1057 15.03666667 4.57 9.803333        
26/10/2020 108 195.7917 274 443 711.5417 992 108 453.6667 992 -42.32833333 -99.7783333 -71.0533 24 195.2136    
27/10/2020 2 180.2083 294 0 651.7917 899 2 416 899 -15.58333333 -59.75 -37.6667        
28/10/2020 117 200.0417 298 440 689.4167 949 117 444.7292 949 19.83333333 37.625 28.72917        
29/10/2020 100 186.875 310 381 673.7083 958 100 430.2917 958 -13.16666667 -15.7083333 -14.4375        
30/10/2020 126 201.4167 273 468 717 988 126 459.2083 988 14.54166667 43.29166667 28.91667        
31/10/2020 127 216.7083 337 421 760.75 990 127 488.7292 990 15.29166667 43.75 29.52083       186.362742

 

As we can see; the overall monthly average for the old cluster is down by about 9 people; which is quite significant given that we're in a period where skillgain is increased and more items are available.  Indeed, the last week calculated without the final day) is definitely quite a spike; without this the average would be somewhat bleaker (179.58).  Last year there was a drop in averages between september and october; this year the drop was of about 4.5%; last year it is recorded as 14.3%.  So there is evidence to suggest that either last year's drop has been somewhat mitigated; though this may just be a change in the characteristic of the population of the old cluster (only "diehards" remaining).

 

We can definitely confirm that the old server is in decline, but are we in a worse position than we were last year?  Well, again, I'll take the average of the maximums for the old cluster which gives 279.42 and compare this to the version from my data last year (275.73).  This "peak average" comparision is definitely appears much more favourable; though here we remind the reader that this is a comparison of a peak average with an overall average and we'd expect a peak average to be substantively higher.  Thus, it may be reasonable to assume that the population is lower than at the same time last year and this is building a stronger argument towards saying "the old cluster has not benefitted from the steam release".  Indeed, it is reasonably certain now to say "the steam release did not generate a net gain in player influx for the old cluster"

 

Overall the picture we're seeing is of decline in the long run, which is somewhat to be expected as it matches the pattern of previous years.  However, we're also building a stronger case towards saying "the new cluster has not positively impacted the old cluster with regards to player counts" (this is not the same as indicating that it has actively harmed it).

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For all intents and purposes the steam release is basically wurm online but chopped into "patches" or "minor expansions" to give new players the feeling of stuff constantly being added. Aka goals, rifts, missions and so on. 

 

After that is ended, what will the player retention look like? This is my main concern. After all the "patches" are in, where does that leave retention? 

 

Yes the steam release did zero to impact old servers which honestly is kinda what many of us predicted. 

The reasons are many. New players don't want to enter an oversaturated market. Poor marketing for old servers. Remember the thread where MOST new players think the old cluster is "overpopulated" and "there's no room to settle or deed". ? 

 

Another reason why the steam release did nothing or even negatively impacted the old servers is this : Player count on steam increased and instead of maybe encouraging new players to at least take a look at the old servers the devs created new servers for the steam release. Basically spreading the population over the new servers. The old diehards as you call them, of which I also count myself, are basically unwilling to start from scratch after pouring years and many euros in developing their characters and deeds. 

 

Another important thing i'd like to point out, with the risk of seeming like a repeating broken disc...this phenomenon has happened before. It happened on Epic years ago. Here you have a dying cluster of players. So what do you do? You offer them a 1 way transfer to freedom. What happens afterwards? Epic dies out. Due to lack of significant pvp content added and lack of pvp balancing, pvp died. So everyone wanted to stop feeling they're playing in ghost town mode/single player mode and left for freedom. This happened what? 3 years ago? Was any significant content added to epic since then? nope.  Did any revival happen longterm? Nope. Did any significant number of players joined Epic since then after the steam release? nope. 

 

So now we got another aged, sickly cluster, called Freedom. Diehards again, just like the diehards on Epic. Dev focus is of course on the steam release because financially those are their bread and butter. But for old freedom this means just stagnated content. Few new players. You "think" the cluster is ok just because you occasionally see some names in local or in gchat but it doesn't really mean it's healthy. All it takes is for 10 players on old freedom to leave on a monthly basis and you'll have 100 people left spread over 7 servers. 

 

At that point I'll still ask myself, will we get another transfer from freedom to the new server cluster? If so, isn't this repeating history of what happened on Epic? 

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26 minutes ago, elentari said:

For all intents and purposes the steam release is basically wurm online but chopped into "patches" or "minor expansions" to give new players the feeling of stuff constantly being added. Aka goals, rifts, missions and so on. 

 

After that is ended, what will the player retention look like? This is my main concern. After all the "patches" are in, where does that leave retention? 

 

Yes the steam release did zero to impact old servers which honestly is kinda what many of us predicted. 

The reasons are many. New players don't want to enter an oversaturated market. Poor marketing for old servers. Remember the thread where MOST new players think the old cluster is "overpopulated" and "there's no room to settle or deed". ? 

 

Another reason why the steam release did nothing or even negatively impacted the old servers is this : Player count on steam increased and instead of maybe encouraging new players to at least take a look at the old servers the devs created new servers for the steam release. Basically spreading the population over the new servers. The old diehards as you call them, of which I also count myself, are basically unwilling to start from scratch after pouring years and many euros in developing their characters and deeds. 

 

Another important thing i'd like to point out, with the risk of seeming like a repeating broken disc...this phenomenon has happened before. It happened on Epic years ago. Here you have a dying cluster of players. So what do you do? You offer them a 1 way transfer to freedom. What happens afterwards? Epic dies out. Due to lack of significant pvp content added and lack of pvp balancing, pvp died. So everyone wanted to stop feeling they're playing in ghost town mode/single player mode and left for freedom. This happened what? 3 years ago? Was any significant content added to epic since then? nope.  Did any revival happen longterm? Nope. Did any significant number of players joined Epic since then after the steam release? nope. 

 

So now we got another aged, sickly cluster, called Freedom. Diehards again, just like the diehards on Epic. Dev focus is of course on the steam release because financially those are their bread and butter. But for old freedom this means just stagnated content. Few new players. You "think" the cluster is ok just because you occasionally see some names in local or in gchat but it doesn't really mean it's healthy. All it takes is for 10 players on old freedom to leave on a monthly basis and you'll have 100 people left spread over 7 servers. 

 

At that point I'll still ask myself, will we get another transfer from freedom to the new server cluster? If so, isn't this repeating history of what happened on Epic? 

This, damn. 

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@elentariI 100% agree with your view; indeed I am 100% behind this.  The data definitely supports this picture, however it does not prove it to a reasonable enough degree yet.  Give me a few more months and some more population data from last year and I can probably prove it conclusively.

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The latest data dump!

 

Spoiler

223,909,2020-11-06,22:0:1
224,909,2020-11-06,23:0:1
200,927,2020-11-07,0:0:2
196,875,2020-11-07,1:0:1
209,804,2020-11-07,2:0:1
196,754,2020-11-07,3:0:1
181,685,2020-11-07,4:0:1
161,646,2020-11-07,5:0:1
144,621,2020-11-07,6:0:1
131,549,2020-11-07,7:0:1
111,538,2020-11-07,8:0:1
123,518,2020-11-07,9:0:1
139,528,2020-11-07,10:0:1
147,585,2020-11-07,11:0:1
150,642,2020-11-07,12:0:2
190,667,2020-11-07,13:0:1
215,717,2020-11-07,14:0:1
228,775,2020-11-07,15:0:1
253,818,2020-11-07,16:0:1
300,889,2020-11-07,17:0:1
306,907,2020-11-07,18:0:1
320,939,2020-11-07,19:0:2
350,969,2020-11-07,20:0:1
435,984,2020-11-07,21:0:1
347,976,2020-11-07,22:0:1
301,986,2020-11-07,23:0:1
279,958,2020-11-08,0:0:1
247,879,2020-11-08,1:0:1
228,858,2020-11-08,2:0:2
229,814,2020-11-08,3:0:2
210,740,2020-11-08,4:0:1
178,699,2020-11-08,5:0:1
164,649,2020-11-08,6:0:1
135,576,2020-11-08,7:0:2
136,542,2020-11-08,8:0:1
146,565,2020-11-08,9:0:1
164,549,2020-11-08,10:0:1
163,592,2020-11-08,11:0:1
171,594,2020-11-08,12:0:1
198,608,2020-11-08,13:0:1
225,667,2020-11-08,14:0:2
259,742,2020-11-08,15:0:1
282,814,2020-11-08,16:0:1
288,908,2020-11-08,17:0:1
302,922,2020-11-08,18:0:1
291,1002,2020-11-08,19:0:1
312,998,2020-11-08,20:0:1
329,981,2020-11-08,21:0:2
283,930,2020-11-08,22:0:2
264,867,2020-11-08,23:0:1
238,822,2020-11-09,0:0:1
212,733,2020-11-09,1:0:1
204,723,2020-11-09,2:0:1
193,707,2020-11-09,3:0:1
150,629,2020-11-09,4:0:2
133,583,2020-11-09,5:0:2
129,494,2020-11-09,6:0:1
112,435,2020-11-09,7:0:1
113,440,2020-11-09,8:0:1
114,424,2020-11-09,9:0:2
110,443,2020-11-09,10:0:2
133,480,2020-11-09,11:0:1
132,478,2020-11-09,12:0:1
138,504,2020-11-09,13:0:1
1,0,2020-11-09,14:0:1
141,413,2020-11-09,15:0:1
215,594,2020-11-09,16:0:2
252,681,2020-11-09,17:0:2
251,742,2020-11-09,18:0:1
252,803,2020-11-09,19:0:1
255,840,2020-11-09,20:0:1
249,885,2020-11-09,21:0:1
224,874,2020-11-09,22:0:1
205,800,2020-11-09,23:0:2
208,744,2020-11-10,0:0:2
215,720,2020-11-10,1:0:1
223,666,2020-11-10,2:0:1
177,649,2020-11-10,3:0:1
151,595,2020-11-10,4:0:1
129,511,2020-11-10,5:0:1
107,482,2020-11-10,6:0:1
115,409,2020-11-10,7:0:1
115,409,2020-11-10,8:0:1
124,403,2020-11-10,9:0:1
133,422,2020-11-10,10:0:1
123,455,2020-11-10,11:0:1
127,491,2020-11-10,12:0:2
150,506,2020-11-10,13:0:1
178,560,2020-11-10,14:0:1
199,640,2020-11-10,15:0:1
228,708,2020-11-10,16:0:1
230,763,2020-11-10,17:0:1
253,824,2020-11-10,18:0:1
260,852,2020-11-10,19:0:2
271,832,2020-11-10,20:0:1
259,831,2020-11-10,21:0:1
247,773,2020-11-10,22:0:1
216,704,2020-11-10,23:0:1
231,682,2020-11-11,0:0:1
224,723,2020-11-11,1:0:1
211,716,2020-11-11,2:0:2
207,700,2020-11-11,3:0:1
169,660,2020-11-11,4:0:1
154,582,2020-11-11,5:0:1
137,516,2020-11-11,6:0:1
137,452,2020-11-11,7:0:2
128,411,2020-11-11,8:0:1
137,458,2020-11-11,9:0:1
127,472,2020-11-11,10:0:1
141,489,2020-11-11,11:0:1
145,537,2020-11-11,12:0:1
144,574,2020-11-11,13:0:2
179,608,2020-11-11,14:0:2
211,675,2020-11-11,15:0:1
241,732,2020-11-11,16:0:1
245,781,2020-11-11,17:0:1
262,816,2020-11-11,18:0:1
261,874,2020-11-11,19:0:1
278,894,2020-11-11,20:0:2
289,883,2020-11-11,21:0:2
248,830,2020-11-11,22:0:1
220,777,2020-11-11,23:0:1
215,746,2020-11-12,0:0:1
201,725,2020-11-12,1:0:1
191,680,2020-11-12,2:0:1
181,663,2020-11-12,3:0:2
160,596,2020-11-12,4:0:2
159,547,2020-11-12,5:0:1
139,484,2020-11-12,6:0:1
134,440,2020-11-12,7:0:1
116,421,2020-11-12,8:0:2
112,419,2020-11-12,9:0:1
110,438,2020-11-12,10:0:1
105,453,2020-11-12,11:0:1
119,482,2020-11-12,12:0:1
147,489,2020-11-12,13:0:1
168,545,2020-11-12,14:0:1
211,590,2020-11-12,15:0:2
235,648,2020-11-12,16:0:1
261,696,2020-11-12,17:0:1
262,735,2020-11-12,18:0:1
286,792,2020-11-12,19:0:1
295,829,2020-11-12,20:0:1
271,874,2020-11-12,21:0:1
226,811,2020-11-12,22:0:2
188,757,2020-11-12,23:0:1
204,722,2020-11-13,0:0:1
190,710,2020-11-13,1:0:1
197,693,2020-11-13,2:0:1
190,679,2020-11-13,3:0:1
163,609,2020-11-13,4:0:1
145,527,2020-11-13,5:0:2
133,455,2020-11-13,6:0:1
117,416,2020-11-13,7:0:1
111,415,2020-11-13,8:0:1
118,413,2020-11-13,9:0:1
120,427,2020-11-13,10:0:2
124,448,2020-11-13,11:0:1
128,455,2020-11-13,12:0:1
149,460,2020-11-13,13:0:1
159,544,2020-11-13,14:0:1
197,611,2020-11-13,15:0:1
198,642,2020-11-13,16:0:1
224,674,2020-11-13,17:0:2
246,740,2020-11-13,18:0:1
282,787,2020-11-13,19:0:1
335,785,2020-11-13,20:0:1
311,802,2020-11-13,21:0:1
277,811,2020-11-13,22:0:1
233,778,2020-11-13,23:0:1
220,768,2020-11-14,0:0:2
226,726,2020-11-14,1:0:1
211,739,2020-11-14,2:0:1
200,689,2020-11-14,3:0:1
187,647,2020-11-14,4:0:1
180,611,2020-11-14,5:0:1
164,560,2020-11-14,6:0:1
155,488,2020-11-14,7:0:1
152,432,2020-11-14,8:0:1
157,432,2020-11-14,9:0:1
148,478,2020-11-14,10:0:1
168,496,2020-11-14,11:0:2
178,539,2020-11-14,12:0:2
198,561,2020-11-14,13:0:1
240,635,2020-11-14,14:0:1
277,690,2020-11-14,15:0:1
294,748,2020-11-14,16:0:1
347,786,2020-11-14,17:0:1
408,863,2020-11-14,18:0:1
455,869,2020-11-14,19:0:2
404,891,2020-11-14,20:0:1
326,900,2020-11-14,21:0:1
313,903,2020-11-14,22:0:1
289,907,2020-11-14,23:0:1
248,853,2020-11-15,0:0:1
246,815,2020-11-15,1:0:1
238,806,2020-11-15,2:0:2
215,782,2020-11-15,3:0:1
192,722,2020-11-15,4:0:1
170,583,2020-11-15,6:0:1
153,526,2020-11-15,7:0:1
138,492,2020-11-15,8:0:1
168,462,2020-11-15,9:0:1
157,490,2020-11-15,10:0:1
147,506,2020-11-15,11:0:1
158,552,2020-11-15,12:0:1
186,598,2020-11-15,13:0:2
211,655,2020-11-15,14:0:1
250,701,2020-11-15,15:0:1
320,795,2020-11-15,16:0:1
409,801,2020-11-15,17:0:1
450,835,2020-11-15,18:0:1
516,881,2020-11-15,19:0:1
468,924,2020-11-15,20:0:2
354,895,2020-11-15,21:0:1
322,844,2020-11-15,22:0:1
282,826,2020-11-15,23:0:1
237,838,2020-11-16,0:0:1
224,766,2020-11-16,1:0:1
225,697,2020-11-16,2:0:1
207,651,2020-11-16,3:0:2
190,580,2020-11-16,4:0:1
164,503,2020-11-16,5:0:1
153,459,2020-11-16,6:0:1
121,414,2020-11-16,7:0:2
123,426,2020-11-16,8:0:1
136,419,2020-11-16,9:0:1
107,426,2020-11-16,10:0:1
130,445,2020-11-16,11:0:1
127,444,2020-11-16,12:0:1
132,474,2020-11-16,13:0:1
150,523,2020-11-16,14:0:2
168,567,2020-11-16,15:0:2
223,608,2020-11-16,16:0:1
254,676,2020-11-16,17:0:1
258,723,2020-11-16,18:0:1
290,763,2020-11-16,19:0:1
290,792,2020-11-16,20:0:1
282,811,2020-11-16,21:0:2
274,786,2020-11-16,22:0:1
245,746,2020-11-16,23:0:1
236,731,2020-11-17,0:0:1
246,708,2020-11-17,1:0:1
228,710,2020-11-17,2:0:1
213,679,2020-11-17,3:0:1
172,651,2020-11-17,4:0:2
151,585,2020-11-17,5:0:1
149,479,2020-11-17,6:0:1
143,477,2020-11-17,7:0:1
142,459,2020-11-17,8:0:1
141,416,2020-11-17,9:0:2
123,420,2020-11-17,10:0:1
124,446,2020-11-17,11:0:1
142,468,2020-11-17,12:0:1
135,515,2020-11-17,13:0:1
143,550,2020-11-17,14:0:1
190,593,2020-11-17,15:0:1
220,667,2020-11-17,16:0:2
220,705,2020-11-17,17:0:1
243,741,2020-11-17,18:0:1
255,761,2020-11-17,19:0:1
249,802,2020-11-17,20:0:1
243,771,2020-11-17,21:0:1
228,785,2020-11-17,22:0:1
225,756,2020-11-17,23:0:2
213,698,2020-11-18,0:0:1
212,685,2020-11-18,1:0:1
205,686,2020-11-18,2:0:1
183,659,2020-11-18,3:0:1
161,612,2020-11-18,4:0:1
147,519,2020-11-18,5:0:1
144,492,2020-11-18,6:0:1
133,456,2020-11-18,7:0:1
139,421,2020-11-18,8:0:1
134,421,2020-11-18,9:0:1
121,434,2020-11-18,10:0:1
110,412,2020-11-18,11:0:2
133,475,2020-11-18,12:0:1
135,514,2020-11-18,13:0:1
167,596,2020-11-18,14:0:1
184,648,2020-11-18,15:0:1
214,676,2020-11-18,16:0:1
228,709,2020-11-18,17:0:2
245,747,2020-11-18,18:0:1
276,821,2020-11-18,19:0:1
267,842,2020-11-18,20:0:1
289,826,2020-11-18,21:0:1
272,804,2020-11-18,22:0:1
252,722,2020-11-18,23:0:2
239,719,2020-11-19,0:0:2
213,732,2020-11-19,1:0:1
191,708,2020-11-19,2:0:1
192,668,2020-11-19,3:0:1
168,608,2020-11-19,4:0:1
142,565,2020-11-19,5:0:1
149,512,2020-11-19,6:0:2
141,494,2020-11-19,7:0:1
118,449,2020-11-19,8:0:1
112,451,2020-11-19,9:0:1
109,462,2020-11-19,10:0:1
113,482,2020-11-19,11:0:2
116,494,2020-11-19,12:0:1
140,527,2020-11-19,13:0:1
156,586,2020-11-19,14:0:1
176,614,2020-11-19,15:0:1
220,625,2020-11-19,16:0:1

 

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I don't see any significant marketing about wurm though. A brief check online doesn't reveal much chatter about the game. Marketing has been one of Wurm's sorest issues over the years and it is still not being redressed.


Granted, the game does need a lot of fixes before its score rises in reviews but a marketing campaign is still badly needed. Hell, even partnering up with a few big youtubers is better than nothing at this point. Shame for this game to stay in obscurity after such a long run.

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5 hours ago, elentari said:

I don't see any significant marketing about wurm though. A brief check online doesn't reveal much chatter about the game. Marketing has been one of Wurm's sorest issues over the years and it is still not being redressed.


Granted, the game does need a lot of fixes before its score rises in reviews but a marketing campaign is still badly needed. Hell, even partnering up with a few big youtubers is better than nothing at this point. Shame for this game to stay in obscurity after such a long run.

 

The problem is picking up the correct audience, considering Steam reviews, Wurm is rather a game more suitable for adult/middle-aged people than very young/teenage ones, as the later group rather prefers quick skill gains, epic fights, dragons every day, and they usually have not enough patience to play Wurm which is extremely slow pace game, so they get bored and quit. 

 

I think Wurm if correctly managed when it comes to marketing could find some niche, there would be probably never 2k players online at the same time, but the more "adult" group usually has more money and is more "faithful" so it is a good group which also needs some digital entertainment. 

Edited by Platyna

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There are plenty of "dad gamers" out there :)) . Well kidding, but what I mostly mean is gamers in their 30s, 40s and 50s. Kids might be included. 

 

And that's indeed our main player demographic. I'd bet most of our players fall into that age group.


Also there are channels out there that are gaming oriented and their demographic is also in the same age range. I agree that you can't really aim wurm at a younger audience these days.

 

Still, attempts should still be made. But i don't see any cohesive marketing plan being formed and led at the moment and that shakes my faith in Wurm's future.

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I would say the main demographic for Wurm is like 25-30+. And it is not like there something not okay with Wurm - such slow pace complex games are needed, and if this niche would be correctly utilized Wurm could come into shine. There are also other issues, that were mentioned in Steam reviews that should be taken into consideration by Wurm staff to make necessary reforms so the project can flourish. 

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The data isn't really showing too much here.

 

The fall in the new cluster is somewhat expected due to the post steam rush; Wurm's biggest issue is retention.  Looking at how things panned out with Release, we can see that we're on track here to retrace old ground (a little faster this time because there are a lot more sandbox options out there for people who are willing to sink money into a game).

 

The old cluster isn't actually declining on the weekly averages this month, it appears to have steadied out.  The population is laughably low (lower than 200 on average), but those who have stayed are those who intend to see things through to the bitter end.

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Steam does takes 1/3 of the money and is also promoting the Game

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4 hours ago, enoofu said:

...and is also promoting the Game

 

I would neither call this a promotion nor an advertisement, steam is simply listing Wurm in their games list, that is not really a promotion. I mean if you put a product on amazon it is also not promoted their, it is just listed and people can search for it.

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There's also been multiple marketing campaigns and will continue to be so. 

 

3 hours ago, Sklo:D said:

 

I would neither call this a promotion nor an advertisement, steam is simply listing Wurm in their games list, that is not really a promotion. I mean if you put a product on amazon it is also not promoted their, it is just listed and people can search for it.

Discoverability is a tricky thing. Yes, steam makes us more discoverable through recommendations, analytics etc. But there's also more games out there we're competing against on the same platform. 

 

Player counts are poor representations but I understand its the "best" publicly available info, just don't use it as proof of any trends other than the steam launch led to a massive spike, and we will normalise over time 

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i hope marketing isn’t actually what a majority of that money is being put into lol

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@RetrogradeI found Wurm by entering in google: "MMORPG Linux", I think this is your niche number 1, and old people are your niche number 2 (as mentioned above) plus maybe some geeky youth. The cake is smaller but at least you can get a bigger chunk of it. Let's be frank Wurm has no chance to complete with giants such as WoW, but let's be even more frank - WoW is not a game you play 10 years. I played I think all MMORPGs for Linux (and some I helped many years to develop) and this one is so far the best. 

 

I think it would be a good idea, that if numbers will drop even more to connect the clusters ASAP and encourage people to move to the old servers and then shut down most of the least populated servers in both clusters or specialize them more, because it is disheartening for a new player when they log in and there is no one on local, and then you walk, and walk and no one is here - this is something that will prevent many people from even trying the game.

 

I think you got some nice input from users on Steam, so you have plenty of data to analyse. That Black Friday sale was a very good move too.  

Edited by Platyna
  • Like 1

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6 hours ago, Retrograde said:

Player counts are poor representations but I understand its the "best" publicly available info

Oh I don't know...

 

Population is definitely a strong indicator of an mmorpgs popularity and retention capacity.

 

As to the overall "health" of an mmo I'll agree it is somewhat debatable; from a corporate view mmo health is measured in expenditure vs income, whereas, to a player, the health of an mmo is largely weighed in terms of stable population.

 

Stable population here is the term; player count tracks the population a player will see.  So, it's definitely a strong indicator of player perception of mmorpg health.  However, I will concede that there are better measures for actual player count (a counter that only increments when a unique IP logs into a unique character within a 24 hour period); such data would be a welcome addition to the public domain as it would give a de-facto answer to the player's question of wurm's health.

 

I suppose here we break into the question "if your players think the game is a ghost town mmo, does that make it one", and that's beyond the scope of my study.

Edited by Etherdrifter
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