Etherdrifter

Population Data So Far

Recommended Posts

Alright; well as some of you know I've been dumping data using a rather basic python script that just logs the values displayed on the population server page.

 

In the spoiler tab below is all the data I've gathered so far using this script; note that it is set to run hourly.  It's gone through some minor tweaks over time, and the data isn't perfect (it did not timestamp properly at first and cron had a fight with me as to when it should run!).

 

The first column is old cluster population, the second is new cluster population, then the date, then the time broken up into hours minutes and seconds.  So "243, 1311, 2020-09-01, 17, 0, 1" was taken on 01/09/2020 at 17:00 (+1 second!) and shows that the old cluster had a population of 243.

 

I've put it in the spoiler tab below; go knock yourselves out!

Spoiler

268, 1649, 2020-08-16
312, 1732, 2020-08-17
223, 1288, 2020-08-18
254, 1414, 2020-08-18
281, 1480, 2020-08-18
299, 1554, 2020-08-18
297, 1609, 2020-08-18
278, 1601, 2020-08-18
269, 1529, 2020-08-18
243, 1460, 2020-08-19
278, 1456, 2020-08-19
245, 1393, 2020-08-19
221, 1362, 2020-08-19
203, 1238, 2020-08-19
180, 1059, 2020-08-19
141, 947, 2020-08-19
142, 869, 2020-08-19
135, 803, 2020-08-19
152, 831, 2020-08-19
159, 844, 2020-08-19
149, 856, 2020-08-19
165, 871, 2020-08-19
172, 918, 2020-08-19
185, 1016, 2020-08-19
209, 1127, 2020-08-19
224, 1277, 2020-08-19
247, 1340, 2020-08-19
284, 1410, 2020-08-19
288, 1515, 2020-08-19
290, 1609, 2020-08-19
288, 1578, 2020-08-19
256, 1543, 2020-08-19
263, 1514, 2020-08-19
264, 1412, 2020-08-20
264, 1419, 2020-08-20
283, 1354, 2020-08-20
250, 1315, 2020-08-20
218, 1268, 2020-08-20
165, 1119, 2020-08-20
155, 993, 2020-08-20
163, 887, 2020-08-20
157, 805, 2020-08-20
149, 516, 2020-08-20
147, 700, 2020-08-20
140, 753, 2020-08-20
141, 823, 2020-08-20
164, 895, 2020-08-20
188, 1013, 2020-08-20
218, 1134, 2020-08-20
245, 1323, 2020-08-20
265, 1361, 2020-08-20
295, 1448, 2020-08-20
314, 1440, 2020-08-20
326, 1490, 2020-08-20
303, 1507, 2020-08-20
283, 1504, 2020-08-20
288, 1460, 2020-08-20
271, 1404, 2020-08-21
256, 1377, 2020-08-21
211, 1372, 2020-08-21
205, 1310, 2020-08-21
154, 1124, 2020-08-21
124, 982, 2020-08-21
123, 874, 2020-08-21
126, 846, 2020-08-21
160, 805, 2020-08-21
137, 798, 2020-08-21
147, 826, 2020-08-21
159, 894, 2020-08-21
174, 994, 2020-08-21
204, 1098, 2020-08-21
39, 371, 2020-08-21
172, 1225, 2020-08-21
219, 1395, 2020-08-21
228, 1492, 2020-08-21
279, 1642, 2020-08-21
289, 1723, 2020-08-21
286, 1747, 2020-08-21
278, 1774, 2020-08-21
292, 1763, 2020-08-21
240, 1649, 2020-08-22
232, 1602, 2020-08-22
229, 1557, 2020-08-22
236, 1484, 2020-08-22
212, 1417, 2020-08-22
183, 1334, 2020-08-22
157, 1179, 2020-08-22
136, 1083, 2020-08-22
166, 1003, 2020-08-22
170, 920, 2020-08-22
166, 937, 2020-08-22
159, 982, 2020-08-22
173, 1054, 2020-08-22
194, 1137, 2020-08-22
217, 1276, 2020-08-22
239, 1355, 2020-08-22
267, 1487, 2020-08-22
289, 1647, 2020-08-22
310, 1649, 2020-08-22
391, 1744, 2020-08-22
380, 1828, 2020-08-22
344, 1878, 2020-08-22
343, 1898, 2020-08-22
319, 1822, 2020-08-22
294, 1706, 2020-08-23
270, 1626, 2020-08-23
261, 1569, 2020-08-23
246, 1489, 2020-08-23
236, 1447, 2020-08-23
210, 1296, 2020-08-23
174, 1158, 2020-08-23
154, 1074, 2020-08-23
143, 1019, 2020-08-23
140, 966, 2020-08-23
171, 975, 2020-08-23
187, 1063, 2020-08-23
193, 1115, 2020-08-23
208, 1247, 2020-08-23
223, 1400, 2020-08-23
260, 1493, 2020-08-23
275, 1574, 2020-08-23
327, 1703, 2020-08-23
310, 1738, 2020-08-23
344, 1830, 2020-08-23
352, 1941, 2020-08-23
353, 1945, 2020-08-23
325, 1892, 2020-08-23
295, 1803, 2020-08-23
263, 1602, 2020-08-24
257, 1570, 2020-08-24
246, 1462, 2020-08-24
243, 1369, 2020-08-24
234, 1274, 2020-08-24
202, 1185, 2020-08-24
150, 1015, 2020-08-24
136, 901, 2020-08-24
127, 854, 2020-08-24
123, 816, 2020-08-24
131, 866, 2020-08-24
132, 893, 2020-08-24
156, 919, 2020-08-24
168, 972, 2020-08-24
182, 1130, 2020-08-24
194, 1197, 2020-08-24
229, 1338, 2020-08-24
264, 1440, 2020-08-24
269, 1520, 2020-08-24
261, 1589, 2020-08-24
294, 1667, 2020-08-24
273, 1674, 2020-08-24
270, 1656, 2020-08-24
268, 1629, 2020-08-24
268, 1539, 2020-08-25
247, 1463, 2020-08-25
264, 1439, 2020-08-25
239, 1342, 2020-08-25
203, 1282, 2020-08-25
176, 1167, 2020-08-25
147, 1042, 2020-08-25
129, 884, 2020-08-25
103, 822, 2020-08-25
107, 744, 2020-08-25
117, 805, 2020-08-25
127, 801, 2020-08-25
145, 885, 2020-08-25
144, 932, 2020-08-25
167, 1079, 2020-08-25
185, 1192, 2020-08-25
211, 1308, 2020-08-25
242, 1458, 2020-08-25
261, 1538, 2020-08-25
288, 1607, 2020-08-25
306, 1713, 2020-08-25
323, 1722, 2020-08-25
299, 1653, 2020-08-25
255, 1606, 2020-08-25
226, 1486, 2020-08-26
220, 1426, 2020-08-26
226, 1412, 2020-08-26
194, 1329, 2020-08-26
180, 1257, 2020-08-26
151, 1117, 2020-08-26
137, 992, 2020-08-26
131, 890, 2020-08-26
132, 820, 2020-08-26
119, 791, 2020-08-26
129, 812, 2020-08-26
147, 844, 2020-08-26
153, 885, 2020-08-26
179, 956, 2020-08-26
29, 760, 2020-08-26
29, 760, 2020-08-26
129, 1000, 2020-08-26
177, 1309, 2020-08-26
242, 1504, 2020-08-26
275, 1612, 2020-08-26
280, 1665, 2020-08-26
259, 1708, 2020-08-26
245, 1660, 2020-08-26
233, 1560, 2020-08-26
249, 1481, 2020-08-27
230, 1421, 2020-08-27
217, 1352, 2020-08-27
211, 1316, 2020-08-27
184, 1259, 2020-08-27
164, 1138, 2020-08-27
147, 1006, 2020-08-27
147, 854, 2020-08-27
142, 795, 2020-08-27
141, 802, 2020-08-27
138, 805, 2020-08-27
143, 837, 2020-08-27
148, 890, 2020-08-27
152, 953, 2020-08-27
172, 1040, 2020-08-27
195, 1149, 2020-08-27
220, 1288, 2020-08-27
233, 1397, 2020-08-27
265, 1470, 2020-08-27
298, 1595, 2020-08-27
285, 1623, 2020-08-27
271, 1619, 2020-08-27
274, 1646, 2020-08-27
266, 1510, 2020-08-27
243, 1419, 2020-08-28
231, 1407, 2020-08-28
211, 1350, 2020-08-28
199, 1309, 2020-08-28
169, 1215, 2020-08-28
145, 1094, 2020-08-28
136, 1001, 2020-08-28
132, 892, 2020-08-28
122, 794, 2020-08-28
121, 811, 2020-08-28
124, 844, 2020-08-28
138, 903, 2020-08-28
148, 907, 2020-08-28
157, 1002, 2020-08-28
186, 1078, 2020-08-28
188, 1224, 2020-08-28
205, 1332, 2020-08-28
227, 1401, 2020-08-28
228, 1493, 2020-08-28
241, 1595, 2020-08-28
249, 1602, 2020-08-28
272, 1649, 2020-08-28
276, 1675, 2020-08-28
264, 1609, 2020-08-28
239, 1482, 2020-08-29
234, 1401, 2020-08-29
223, 1355, 2020-08-29
239, 1357, 2020-08-29
220, 1314, 2020-08-29
186, 1185, 2020-08-29
161, 1125, 2020-08-29
159, 1039, 2020-08-29
168, 967, 2020-08-29
156, 968, 2020-08-29
163, 948, 2020-08-29
157, 976, 2020-08-29
183, 1036, 2020-08-29
200, 1080, 2020-08-29
212, 1161, 2020-08-29
221, 1279, 2020-08-29
248, 1409, 2020-08-29
255, 1489, 2020-08-29
310, 1543, 2020-08-29
335, 1654, 2020-08-29
362, 1725, 2020-08-29
357, 1769, 2020-08-29
304, 1738, 2020-08-29
321, 1642, 2020-08-29, 23, 0, 1
285, 1558, 2020-08-30, 0, 0, 1
258, 1471, 2020-08-30, 1, 0, 1
243, 1413, 2020-08-30, 2, 0, 1
246, 1402, 2020-08-30, 3, 0, 2
248, 1341, 2020-08-30, 4, 0, 1
223, 1207, 2020-08-30, 5, 0, 1
179, 1113, 2020-08-30, 6, 0, 1
167, 1019, 2020-08-30, 7, 0, 1
163, 938, 2020-08-30, 8, 0, 2
160, 895, 2020-08-30, 9, 0, 1
161, 938, 2020-08-30, 10, 0, 1
188, 951, 2020-08-30, 11, 0, 1
183, 1020, 2020-08-30, 12, 0, 1
193, 1074, 2020-08-30, 13, 0, 1
233, 1234, 2020-08-30, 14, 0, 1
265, 1371, 2020-08-30, 15, 0, 1
294, 1443, 2020-08-30, 16, 0, 2
314, 1501, 2020-08-30, 17, 0, 1
365, 1598, 2020-08-30, 18, 0, 1
459, 1655, 2020-08-30, 19, 0, 1
405, 1726, 2020-08-30, 20, 0, 1
351, 1769, 2020-08-30, 21, 0, 1
324, 1707, 2020-08-30, 22, 0, 1
315, 1567, 2020-08-30, 23, 0, 1
289, 1441, 2020-08-31, 0, 0, 2
282, 1378, 2020-08-31, 1, 0, 2
260, 1317, 2020-08-31, 2, 0, 1
237, 1264, 2020-08-31, 3, 0, 1
225, 1210, 2020-08-31, 4, 0, 1
196, 1075, 2020-08-31, 5, 0, 1
161, 952, 2020-08-31, 6, 0, 1
140, 873, 2020-08-31, 7, 0, 1
138, 811, 2020-08-31, 8, 0, 1
135, 772, 2020-08-31, 9, 0, 1
148, 772, 2020-08-31, 10, 0, 1
144, 790, 2020-08-31, 11, 0, 1
135, 828, 2020-08-31, 12, 0, 2
153, 915, 2020-08-31, 13, 0, 2
169, 950, 2020-08-31, 14, 0, 1
198, 1144, 2020-08-31, 15, 0, 1
231, 1269, 2020-08-31, 16, 0, 1
259, 1342, 2020-08-31, 17, 0, 1
266, 1494, 2020-08-31, 18, 0, 1
297, 1547, 2020-08-31, 19, 0, 2
271, 1586, 2020-08-31, 20, 0, 2
279, 1580, 2020-08-31, 21, 0, 1
259, 1563, 2020-08-31, 22, 0, 1
245, 1514, 2020-08-31, 23, 0, 1
247, 1365, 2020-09-01, 0, 0, 1
227, 1365, 2020-09-01, 1, 0, 1
227, 1338, 2020-09-01, 2, 0, 2
238, 1274, 2020-09-01, 3, 0, 2
210, 1200, 2020-09-01, 4, 0, 1
196, 1065, 2020-09-01, 5, 0, 1
164, 963, 2020-09-01, 6, 0, 1
151, 866, 2020-09-01, 7, 0, 2
144, 812, 2020-09-01, 8, 0, 1
146, 801, 2020-09-01, 9, 0, 1
155, 830, 2020-09-01, 10, 0, 1
154, 797, 2020-09-01, 11, 0, 1
154, 815, 2020-09-01, 12, 0, 1
172, 899, 2020-09-01, 13, 0, 2
188, 979, 2020-09-01, 14, 0, 2
198, 1067, 2020-09-01, 15, 0, 1
244, 1231, 2020-09-01, 16, 0, 1
243, 1311, 2020-09-01, 17, 0, 1
271, 1393, 2020-09-01, 18, 0, 1
283, 1447, 2020-09-01, 19, 0, 1
287, 1553, 2020-09-01, 20, 0, 2
302, 1502, 2020-09-01, 21, 0, 2
286, 1415, 2020-09-01, 22, 0, 1
297, 1331, 2020-09-01, 23, 0, 1
294, 1306, 2020-09-02, 0, 0, 1
267, 1285, 2020-09-02, 1, 0, 1
273, 1267, 2020-09-02, 2, 0, 1
241, 1216, 2020-09-02, 3, 0, 2
216, 1136, 2020-09-02, 4, 0, 2
189, 1004, 2020-09-02, 5, 0, 1
173, 905, 2020-09-02, 6, 0, 1
151, 837, 2020-09-02, 7, 0, 1
146, 797, 2020-09-02, 8, 0, 1
140, 776, 2020-09-02, 9, 0, 2
151, 835, 2020-09-02, 10, 0, 1
159, 793, 2020-09-02, 11, 0, 1
161, 889, 2020-09-02, 12, 0, 1
166, 955, 2020-09-02, 13, 0, 1
161, 1023, 2020-09-02, 14, 0, 1
177, 1091, 2020-09-02, 15, 0, 2
207, 1235, 2020-09-02, 16, 0, 2
246, 1300, 2020-09-02, 17, 0, 1
251, 1426, 2020-09-02, 18, 0, 1
277, 1508, 2020-09-02, 19, 0, 1
293, 1508, 2020-09-02, 20, 0, 1
295, 1513, 2020-09-02, 21, 0, 1
288, 1479, 2020-09-02, 22, 0, 2
288, 1412, 2020-09-02, 23, 0, 2
278, 1247, 2020-09-03, 0, 0, 1
251, 1216, 2020-09-03, 1, 0, 1
269, 1218, 2020-09-03, 2, 0, 1
248, 1176, 2020-09-03, 3, 0, 1
214, 1096, 2020-09-03, 4, 0, 1
198, 1007, 2020-09-03, 5, 0, 2
168, 860, 2020-09-03, 6, 0, 1
148, 793, 2020-09-03, 7, 0, 1
148, 773, 2020-09-03, 8, 0, 1
152, 747, 2020-09-03, 9, 0, 1
143, 731, 2020-09-03, 10, 0, 2
140, 737, 2020-09-03, 11, 0, 1
153, 761, 2020-09-03, 12, 0, 1
176, 836, 2020-09-03, 13, 0, 1
180, 933, 2020-09-03, 14, 0, 1
215, 1024, 2020-09-03, 15, 0, 1
244, 1123, 2020-09-03, 16, 0, 1
266, 1261, 2020-09-03, 17, 0, 2
277, 1351, 2020-09-03, 18, 0, 1
311, 1397, 2020-09-03, 19, 0, 1
309, 1461, 2020-09-03, 20, 0, 1
307, 1457, 2020-09-03, 21, 0, 1
259, 1363, 2020-09-03, 22, 0, 1
228, 1284, 2020-09-03, 23, 0, 1
247, 1256, 2020-09-04, 0, 0, 1
243, 1220, 2020-09-04, 1, 0, 2
239, 1185, 2020-09-04, 2, 0, 1
223, 1190, 2020-09-04, 3, 0, 1
198, 1096, 2020-09-04, 4, 0, 1
169, 1051, 2020-09-04, 5, 0, 1
153, 947, 2020-09-04, 6, 0, 1
131, 801, 2020-09-04, 7, 0, 1
134, 724, 2020-09-04, 8, 0, 1
137, 722, 2020-09-04, 9, 0, 1
122, 743, 2020-09-04, 10, 0, 1
119, 735, 2020-09-04, 11, 0, 1
131, 779, 2020-09-04, 12, 0, 2
129, 853, 2020-09-04, 13, 0, 2
170, 947, 2020-09-04, 14, 0, 1
194, 1077, 2020-09-04, 15, 0, 1

 

Edited by Etherdrifter
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

can we has some graphs for those of us who can't be asked to make them ourselves?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's hard to make a good graph when there's so much duplicate data on each date, but I tried. Looks pretty okay I guess.

2OEhMN1.png

  • Like 11

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fairly stable across the board.

Does disprove the argument the old servers are dying due to the new servers though, however.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Elisha said:

Fairly stable across the board.

Does disprove the argument the old servers are dying due to the new servers though, however.

It definitely shows that we're in a stable 16 day period for the old servers!  So far, the evidence does suggest stability, though, it does not suggest growth.  Essentially, at this point in time, influx is balancing exodus.

 

13 hours ago, Sindusk said:

It's hard to make a good graph when there's so much duplicate data on each date, but I tried. Looks pretty okay I guess.

2OEhMN1.png

Looks good to me.  A good one to look at is tracking daily averages and weekly averages.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Duplicate dates are not the problem, as they show different hours of the day, they will just make the chart sinusoidal, regression curve still can be easily calculated. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Additional data as it has come in

 

Spoiler

201,1153,2020-09-04,16,0,1
190,1241,2020-09-04,17,0,1
229,1350,2020-09-04,18,0,1
267,1444,2020-09-04,19,0,1
298,1487,2020-09-04,20,0,2
305,1510,2020-09-04,21,0,1
278,1467,2020-09-04,22,0,1
270,1413,2020-09-04,23,0,1
268,1295,2020-09-05,0,0,1
249,1274,2020-09-05,1,0,1
240,1208,2020-09-05,2,0,1
234,1126,2020-09-05,3,0,2
222,1123,2020-09-05,4,0,1
194,1016,2020-09-05,5,0,1
175,962,2020-09-05,6,0,1
163,911,2020-09-05,7,0,2
141,859,2020-09-05,8,0,2
141,841,2020-09-05,9,0,1
147,893,2020-09-05,10,0,1
142,904,2020-09-05,11,0,1
152,962,2020-09-05,12,0,1
176,1002,2020-09-05,13,0,1
216,1119,2020-09-05,14,0,1
243,1194,2020-09-05,15,0,2
277,1360,2020-09-05,16,0,1
278,1398,2020-09-05,17,0,1
291,1411,2020-09-05,18,0,1
310,1467,2020-09-05,19,0,1
311,1491,2020-09-05,20,0,1
312,1519,2020-09-05,21,0,2
312,1556,2020-09-05,22,0,2
312,1541,2020-09-05,23,0,1
294,1431,2020-09-06,0,0,1
260,1338,2020-09-06,1,0,1
242,1268,2020-09-06,2,0,1
230,1234,2020-09-06,3,0,1
235,1198,2020-09-06,4,0,1
219,1111,2020-09-06,5,0,2
187,980,2020-09-06,6,0,1
170,928,2020-09-06,7,0,1
174,887,2020-09-06,8,0,1
169,848,2020-09-06,9,0,2
171,863,2020-09-06,10,0,2
160,909,2020-09-06,11,0,1
167,968,2020-09-06,12,0,1
201,989,2020-09-06,13,0,1
228,1124,2020-09-06,14,0,1
230,1234,2020-09-06,15,0,1
276,1331,2020-09-06,16,0,2
289,1437,2020-09-06,17,0,1
320,1505,2020-09-06,18,0,1
418,1548,2020-09-06,19,0,1
334,1598,2020-09-06,20,0,1
323,1593,2020-09-06,21,0,1
301,1537,2020-09-06,22,0,1
290,1426,2020-09-06,23,0,2
267,1272,2020-09-07,0,0,2
260,1248,2020-09-07,1,0,1
241,1245,2020-09-07,2,0,1
226,1200,2020-09-07,3,0,1
239,1146,2020-09-07,4,0,1
208,1069,2020-09-07,5,0,1
180,956,2020-09-07,6,0,2
171,885,2020-09-07,7,0,1
158,820,2020-09-07,8,0,1
150,781,2020-09-07,9,0,1
140,770,2020-09-07,10,0,1
135,810,2020-09-07,11,0,1
139,822,2020-09-07,12,0,2
172,904,2020-09-07,13,0,1
173,994,2020-09-07,14,0,1
32,731,2020-09-07,15,0,1
154,800,2020-09-07,16,0,1
249,1237,2020-09-07,17,0,1
265,1416,2020-09-07,18,0,1
299,1550,2020-09-07,19,0,2
324,1605,2020-09-07,20,0,1
319,1654,2020-09-07,21,0,1
306,1621,2020-09-07,22,0,1
262,1516,2020-09-07,23,0,1
239,1383,2020-09-08,0,0,1
225,1275,2020-09-08,1,0,1
225,1247,2020-09-08,2,0,2
197,1176,2020-09-08,3,0,1
176,1077,2020-09-08,4,0,1
158,1023,2020-09-08,5,0,1
147,862,2020-09-08,6,0,1
136,797,2020-09-08,7,0,2
138,725,2020-09-08,8,0,1
143,710,2020-09-08,9,0,1
124,766,2020-09-08,10,0,1
145,758,2020-09-08,11,0,1
142,808,2020-09-08,12,0,1
157,841,2020-09-08,13,0,1
174,952,2020-09-08,14,0,2
190,992,2020-09-08,15,0,2
197,1098,2020-09-08,16,0,1
219,1263,2020-09-08,17,0,1
229,1381,2020-09-08,18,0,1
248,1450,2020-09-08,19,0,1
266,1519,2020-09-08,20,0,1
235,1477,2020-09-08,21,0,2
236,1396,2020-09-08,22,0,2
206,1403,2020-09-08,23,0,1
194,1318,2020-09-09,0,0,1
207,1238,2020-09-09,1,0,1
217,1209,2020-09-09,2,0,1
195,1187,2020-09-09,3,0,1
166,1074,2020-09-09,4,0,2
159,946,2020-09-09,5,0,2
139,854,2020-09-09,6,0,1
131,769,2020-09-09,7,0,1
136,716,2020-09-09,8,0,1
129,744,2020-09-09,9,0,2
119,742,2020-09-09,10,0,2
116,760,2020-09-09,11,0,1
137,783,2020-09-09,12,0,1
132,867,2020-09-09,13,0,1
158,936,2020-09-09,14,0,1
158,1025,2020-09-09,15,0,1
175,1070,2020-09-09,16,0,1
201,1226,2020-09-09,17,0,2
231,1304,2020-09-09,18,0,1
246,1360,2020-09-09,19,0,1
250,1359,2020-09-09,20,0,1
265,1426,2020-09-09,21,0,1
232,1381,2020-09-09,22,0,1
213,1331,2020-09-09,23,0,1
223,1262,2020-09-10,0,0,2
199,1223,2020-09-10,1,0,1
194,1178,2020-09-10,2,0,1
199,1126,2020-09-10,3,0,1
168,1020,2020-09-10,4,0,1
154,943,2020-09-10,5,0,1
135,803,2020-09-10,6,0,2
127,740,2020-09-10,7,0,1
140,679,2020-09-10,8,0,1
135,702,2020-09-10,9,0,1
130,711,2020-09-10,10,0,1
125,657,2020-09-10,11,0,2
123,729,2020-09-10,12,0,2
142,767,2020-09-10,13,0,1
144,854,2020-09-10,14,0,1
154,953,2020-09-10,15,0,1
188,1054,2020-09-10,16,0,1
199,1146,2020-09-10,17,0,1
228,1225,2020-09-10,18,0,2
267,1326,2020-09-10,19,0,1
245,1357,2020-09-10,20,0,1
241,1450,2020-09-10,21,0,1
226,1398,2020-09-10,22,0,1
208,1350,2020-09-10,23,0,1
204,1257,2020-09-11,0,0,1
217,1171,2020-09-11,1,0,2
208,1153,2020-09-11,2,0,1
195,1150,2020-09-11,3,0,1
177,1108,2020-09-11,4,0,1
149,961,2020-09-11,5,0,1
154,867,2020-09-11,6,0,1
141,766,2020-09-11,7,0,1
140,769,2020-09-11,8,0,1
154,733,2020-09-11,9,0,1
149,759,2020-09-11,10,0,1
149,750,2020-09-11,11,0,1
153,801,2020-09-11,12,0,2
174,848,2020-09-11,13,0,2
168,868,2020-09-11,14,0,1
28,261,2020-09-11,15,0,1
134,767,2020-09-11,16,0,1
180,1042,2020-09-11,17,0,1
207,1200,2020-09-11,18,0,1
246,1354,2020-09-11,19,0,1
252,1424,2020-09-11,20,0,2
251,1416,2020-09-11,21,0,1
245,1392,2020-09-11,22,0,1
210,1349,2020-09-11,23,0,1
193,1271,2020-09-12,0,0,1
192,1272,2020-09-12,1,0,1
198,1207,2020-09-12,2,0,1
189,1172,2020-09-12,3,0,2
196,1144,2020-09-12,4,0,1
182,1107,2020-09-12,5,0,1
159,959,2020-09-12,6,0,1
144,868,2020-09-12,7,0,1
150,855,2020-09-12,8,0,2
160,803,2020-09-12,9,0,1
160,845,2020-09-12,10,0,1
167,869,2020-09-12,11,0,1
154,842,2020-09-12,12,0,1
173,933,2020-09-12,13,0,1
188,1089,2020-09-12,14,0,1
200,1183,2020-09-12,15,0,2
228,1299,2020-09-12,16,0,1
258,1404,2020-09-12,17,0,1
260,1463,2020-09-12,18,0,1
272,1518,2020-09-12,19,0,1
292,1573,2020-09-12,20,0,1
284,1577,2020-09-12,21,0,1
299,1549,2020-09-12,22,0,2
268,1442,2020-09-12,23,0,1
254,1347,2020-09-13,0,0,1
271,1294,2020-09-13,1,0,1
254,1288,2020-09-13,2,0,1
244,1241,2020-09-13,3,0,1
220,1194,2020-09-13,4,0,1
211,1073,2020-09-13,5,0,2
189,970,2020-09-13,6,0,2
171,932,2020-09-13,7,0,1
169,886,2020-09-13,8,0,1
146,840,2020-09-13,9,0,1
139,862,2020-09-13,10,0,2
145,914,2020-09-13,11,0,1
168,960,2020-09-13,12,0,1
182,987,2020-09-13,13,0,1
191,1108,2020-09-13,14,0,1
225,1224,2020-09-13,15,0,1
240,1305,2020-09-13,16,0,1
269,1366,2020-09-13,17,0,2
279,1450,2020-09-13,18,0,2
308,1503,2020-09-13,19,0,1
319,1635,2020-09-13,20,0,1
313,1620,2020-09-13,21,0,1
292,1606,2020-09-13,22,0,1
272,1513,2020-09-13,23,0,1
246,1371,2020-09-14,0,0,2
249,1285,2020-09-14,1,0,2
267,1237,2020-09-14,2,0,1
239,1183,2020-09-14,3,0,1
200,1071,2020-09-14,4,0,1
166,950,2020-09-14,5,0,1
142,847,2020-09-14,6,0,1
127,744,2020-09-14,7,0,1
137,708,2020-09-14,8,0,1
133,714,2020-09-14,9,0,1
135,709,2020-09-14,10,0,1
127,693,2020-09-14,11,0,1
140,757,2020-09-14,12,0,1
155,809,2020-09-14,13,0,2
173,865,2020-09-14,14,0,1
178,974,2020-09-14,15,0,1
212,1066,2020-09-14,16,0,1
221,1188,2020-09-14,17,0,1
223,1311,2020-09-14,18,0,1
248,1374,2020-09-14,19,0,1
255,1412,2020-09-14,20,0,2
257,1415,2020-09-14,21,0,1
242,1342,2020-09-14,22,0,1
231,1310,2020-09-14,23,0,1
238,1219,2020-09-15,0,0,1
239,1203,2020-09-15,1,0,1
223,1152,2020-09-15,2,0,1
238,1155,2020-09-15,3,0,2
196,1077,2020-09-15,4,0,1
170,919,2020-09-15,5,0,1
146,843,2020-09-15,6,0,1
116,742,2020-09-15,7,0,2
109,705,2020-09-15,8,0,2
114,688,2020-09-15,9,0,1

 

I've also got a summary table below

 

    OLD     NEW     TOTAL     GROWTH  
Date O-Min O-Avg O-Max N-Min N-Avg M-Max Min Average Max O-Growth N-Growth T-Growth
16/08/2020 268 268 268 1649 1649 1649 268 958.5 1649 - - -
17/08/2020 312 312 312 1732 1732 1732 312 1022 1732 44 83 63.5
18/08/2020 223 271.5714 299 1288 1496.429 1609 223 884 1609 -40.4286 -235.571 -138
19/08/2020 135 213.2917 290 803 1201.5 1609 135 707.3958 1609 -58.2798 -294.929 -176.604
20/08/2020 140 224.375 326 516 1164.125 1507 140 694.25 1507 11.08333 -37.375 -13.1458
21/08/2020 39 197.087 292 371 1210.261 1774 39 703.6739 1774 -27.288 46.13587 9.423913
22/08/2020 136 239.6667 391 920 1413.417 1898 136 826.5417 1898 42.57971 203.1558 122.8678
23/08/2020 140 247.9583 353 966 1461.208 1945 140 854.5833 1945 8.291667 47.79167 28.04167
24/08/2020 123 211.3333 294 816 1272.417 1674 123 741.875 1674 -36.625 -188.792 -112.708
25/08/2020 103 206.375 323 744 1250.958 1722 103 728.6667 1722 -4.95833 -21.4583 -13.2083
26/08/2020 29 175.9167 280 760 1189.792 1708 29 682.8542 1708 -30.4583 -61.1667 -45.8125
27/08/2020 138 203.8333 298 795 1218.583 1646 138 711.2083 1646 27.91667 28.79167 28.35417
28/08/2020 121 192.1667 276 794 1233.583 1675 121 712.875 1675 -11.6667 15 1.666667
29/08/2020 156 233.875 362 948 1318.417 1769 156 776.1458 1769 41.70833 84.83333 63.27083
30/08/2020 160 259.25 459 895 1329.625 1769 160 794.4375 1769 25.375 11.20833 18.29167
31/08/2020 135 213.2083 297 772 1182.792 1586 135 698 1586 -46.0417 -146.833 -96.4375
01/09/2020 144 216 302 797 1150.792 1553 144 683.3958 1553 2.791667 -32 -14.6042
02/09/2020 140 217.0833 295 776 1145.667 1513 140 681.375 1513 1.083333 -5.125 -2.02083
03/09/2020 140 220.0833 311 731 1077.167 1461 140 648.625 1461 3 -68.5 -32.75
04/09/2020 119 199.0417 305 722 1099.625 1510 119 649.3333 1510 -21.0417 22.45833 0.708333
05/09/2020 141 229.4167 312 841 1184.667 1556 141 707.0417 1556 30.375 85.04167 57.70833
06/09/2020 160 245.3333 418 848 1220.208 1598 160 732.7708 1598 15.91667 35.54167 25.72917
07/09/2020 32 211.2083 324 731 1127.167 1654 32 669.1875 1654 -34.125 -93.0417 -63.5833
08/09/2020 124 189.6667 266 710 1099.125 1519 124 644.3958 1519 -21.5417 -28.0417 -24.7917
09/09/2020 116 179.4167 265 716 1067.708 1426 116 623.5625 1426 -10.25 -31.4167 -20.8333
10/09/2020 123 178.9167 267 657 1027.208 1450 123 603.0625 1450 -0.5 -40.5 -20.5
11/09/2020 28 178.5417 252 261 1006.917 1424 28 592.7292 1424 -0.375 -20.2917 -10.3333
12/09/2020 144 206.9167 299 803 1176.833 1577 144 691.875 1577 28.375 169.9167 99.14583
13/09/2020 139 227.9583 319 840 1213.25 1635 139 720.6042 1635 21.04167 36.41667 28.72917
14/09/2020 127 195.9583 267 693 1055.625 1415 127 625.7917 1415 -32 -157.625 -94.8125
15/09/2020 109 178.9 239 688 970.3 1219 109 574.6 1219 -17.0583 -85.325 -51.1917

 

As you can see, wurm now appears to be in the "drop" phase; that is population numbers are in decline (somewhat expected given the time of year)

 

However, and I say this without any glee, the weekly average for the past week (Monday-Sunday) on the old cluster is 192.3726.

 

The monthly average is looking to be about 217.5597 which isn't great as the growth trend (far right 3 columns) is generally downward at a fast rate for both clusters!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Naturally...

 

Otj1rID.png

 

With that much data it's hard to find trends, so here's that graph with trendlines enabled:

Spoiler

CZYTtpW.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At some point I'll find a way for the script to just dump to a google sheet and then set it up to graph.

 

Yours are quite marvellous though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like old servers are stable (if uninspiring) in population, but new servers are losing, what, around 60 a week? Seems like a manageable trend - it'll take another few weeks to drop below 1k if that trend continues, right? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Nekojin said:

but new servers are losing, what, around 60 a week?

 

 

Another thing to note, players on the new server might still play actively but for fewer hours a day. 

 

Say initially a lot of them took time off, or just got obsessed/addicted, and logged in  12-16+ hours a day.   Now weeks later it may settle down to where they still log in almost every day, but average 3-5 hours a day, and now and then miss a day (gasp).  Still a very active playtime, but if you are checking for how many players are logged in at any particular moment, it could look like a dropping in population, when it is actually a similar number of people just not playing as intensively.

 

My own hours I now have slacked off compared to first week, but I still log in nearly every day. But for shorter periods, as there are other things in my life I also tend to give attention to, and it is hard to susutain longterm those first week nonstop play sessions.

 

How many people on the new servers are playing just as many hours today as they did the first week? How many still play daily but for far fewer hours now?

 

 

Edited by Brash_Endeavors
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Nekojin said:

Looks like old servers are stable (if uninspiring) in population, but new servers are losing, what, around 60 a week? Seems like a manageable trend - it'll take another few weeks to drop below 1k if that trend continues, right? 

 

I'm not too sure actually if this is a trend yet.  However the rate of decline is quite sharp in the new server population, but this may just be "back to school" in action.

 

7 minutes ago, Brash_Endeavors said:

Another thing to note, players on the new server might still play actively but for fewer hours a day.

 

This is quite a good possible explenation, though it's equally likely that population has just dropped.  It may well be a factor of both, in which case the decline is less drastic but still notable.

 

Regardless of interpretation though, the world of wurm is feeling emptier, and this will likely worsen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something maybe a bit easier on the eyes?
Also shows the downward trend a bit easier

eQ12oSJ.png

What you see as the downward trend really isnt just players playing less it is players quitting just like with every single game first week to first month data will always show a drop unless you made a engaging game that keeps 100% of players hooked for a month+ which no one really can do anyway
But over time the numbers will even out and it will have a 1-5% difference month to month with spikes happening due to controversies or big content updates/marketing pieces happening that catch eyeballs
Poe wrote and made a few video's explaining their statistical info related to player count drops and rises and such but in short it just comes down to people grow bored and other games come out and our time isnt infinite so overall the playerbase for any game will always drop down to a set number which is your core players that stick with you for a long time and have your game as your main game and any number above that will rise and lower depending on a lot of factors

Either way just because there is a downward trend it doesnt mean its a bad thing its a normal thing what would be bad is wu's trend of month to month which has had 2 spikes of over 2k players with the average month to moth being under 500 but again it hangs stable around 200-300 players average throughout a month

Blue= WO
green= WU
K3DoY4Z.png

That chart showing steam user count does show a bit more concerning trend but it was to be expected anyway with the nature of steam and the nature of wurm


Either way with the beauty of steam is that players will keep finding wurm at a slow but steady stream and people will keep trying it out and keep throwing money at the game even if they quit after a while most will come back sooner then later as the game is now in their library so the chance of coming back is higher then before where a player uninstalls it and completely forgets about the game even being a thing and never returns

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The rest of this month's data, a summary, and a bit of analaysis at the bottom (feel free to skip down)

 

Spoiler

112,716,2020-09-15,10:0:1
112,705,2020-09-15,11:0:1
125,771,2020-09-15,12:0:1
136,827,2020-09-15,13:0:1
146,844,2020-09-15,14:0:1
161,971,2020-09-15,15:0:2
213,1073,2020-09-15,16:0:2
231,1165,2020-09-15,17:0:1
232,1236,2020-09-15,18:0:1
244,1280,2020-09-15,19:0:1
259,1353,2020-09-15,20:0:1
272,1309,2020-09-15,21:0:1
239,1325,2020-09-15,22:0:2
224,1236,2020-09-15,23:0:1
229,1156,2020-09-16,0:0:1
221,1127,2020-09-16,1:0:1
222,1133,2020-09-16,2:0:1
200,1131,2020-09-16,3:0:1
191,1060,2020-09-16,4:0:1
154,931,2020-09-16,5:0:2
134,839,2020-09-16,6:0:2
136,778,2020-09-16,7:0:1
132,720,2020-09-16,8:0:1
139,710,2020-09-16,9:0:1
140,721,2020-09-16,10:0:1
151,734,2020-09-16,11:0:2
148,754,2020-09-16,12:0:1
146,766,2020-09-16,13:0:1
161,842,2020-09-16,14:0:1
177,976,2020-09-16,15:0:1
200,1112,2020-09-16,16:0:1
204,1207,2020-09-16,17:0:1
198,1196,2020-09-16,18:0:2
240,1364,2020-09-16,19:0:1
237,1419,2020-09-16,20:0:1
245,1319,2020-09-16,21:0:1
220,1306,2020-09-16,22:0:1
209,1198,2020-09-16,23:0:1
218,1136,2020-09-17,0:0:1
229,1114,2020-09-17,1:0:2
229,1110,2020-09-17,2:0:2
172,1063,2020-09-17,3:0:1
189,976,2020-09-17,4:0:1
174,912,2020-09-17,5:0:1
136,805,2020-09-17,6:0:1
125,742,2020-09-17,7:0:1
127,718,2020-09-17,8:0:1
114,720,2020-09-17,9:0:1
131,715,2020-09-17,10:0:1
134,735,2020-09-17,11:0:1
128,751,2020-09-17,12:0:1
131,785,2020-09-17,13:0:2
1,0,2020-09-17,14:0:1
104,609,2020-09-17,15:0:1
174,833,2020-09-17,16:0:1
203,1001,2020-09-17,17:0:1
236,1136,2020-09-17,18:0:1
238,1232,2020-09-17,19:0:1
249,1293,2020-09-17,20:0:2
249,1341,2020-09-17,21:0:1
230,1299,2020-09-17,22:0:1
220,1235,2020-09-17,23:0:1
205,1172,2020-09-18,0:0:1
216,1119,2020-09-18,1:0:1
226,1078,2020-09-18,2:0:2
210,1111,2020-09-18,3:0:2
171,979,2020-09-18,4:0:1
145,908,2020-09-18,5:0:1
146,816,2020-09-18,6:0:1
126,778,2020-09-18,7:0:2
135,712,2020-09-18,8:0:1
139,670,2020-09-18,9:0:1
125,664,2020-09-18,10:0:1
122,706,2020-09-18,11:0:1
139,729,2020-09-18,12:0:1
158,781,2020-09-18,13:0:1
175,819,2020-09-18,14:0:2
162,939,2020-09-18,15:0:2
185,1025,2020-09-18,16:0:1
206,1121,2020-09-18,17:0:1
232,1216,2020-09-18,18:0:1
238,1251,2020-09-18,19:0:1
241,1285,2020-09-18,20:0:1
255,1332,2020-09-18,21:0:2
244,1287,2020-09-18,22:0:2
222,1203,2020-09-18,23:0:1
201,1131,2020-09-19,0:0:1
207,1080,2020-09-19,1:0:1
207,1074,2020-09-19,2:0:1
210,1078,2020-09-19,3:0:1
201,1026,2020-09-19,4:0:2
189,941,2020-09-19,5:0:1
172,863,2020-09-19,6:0:1
151,827,2020-09-19,7:0:1
135,778,2020-09-19,8:0:1
136,756,2020-09-19,9:0:2
135,778,2020-09-19,10:0:1
142,803,2020-09-19,11:0:1
166,804,2020-09-19,12:0:1
180,845,2020-09-19,13:0:1
195,912,2020-09-19,14:0:1
230,1039,2020-09-19,15:0:1
256,1143,2020-09-19,16:0:2
275,1206,2020-09-19,17:0:1
302,1247,2020-09-19,18:0:1
393,1340,2020-09-19,19:0:1
331,1369,2020-09-19,20:0:1
288,1424,2020-09-19,21:0:1
279,1451,2020-09-19,22:0:2
257,1376,2020-09-19,23:0:2
222,1274,2020-09-20,0:0:1
226,1204,2020-09-20,1:0:1
231,1161,2020-09-20,2:0:1
211,1116,2020-09-20,3:0:1
199,1092,2020-09-20,4:0:1
193,1035,2020-09-20,5:0:2
180,921,2020-09-20,6:0:2
171,842,2020-09-20,7:0:1
167,850,2020-09-20,8:0:1
179,826,2020-09-20,9:0:1
169,841,2020-09-20,10:0:2
186,827,2020-09-20,11:0:1
193,825,2020-09-20,12:0:1
181,903,2020-09-20,13:0:1
191,945,2020-09-20,14:0:1
198,1013,2020-09-20,15:0:1
248,1092,2020-09-20,16:0:1
272,1226,2020-09-20,17:0:1
288,1276,2020-09-20,18:0:2
322,1368,2020-09-20,19:0:1
288,1461,2020-09-20,20:0:1
286,1456,2020-09-20,21:0:1
270,1368,2020-09-20,22:0:1
239,1285,2020-09-20,23:0:1
227,1177,2020-09-21,0:0:2
228,1090,2020-09-21,1:0:2
225,1084,2020-09-21,2:0:1
205,1030,2020-09-21,3:0:1
179,953,2020-09-21,4:0:1
159,913,2020-09-21,5:0:1
139,792,2020-09-21,6:0:1
134,695,2020-09-21,7:0:1
136,668,2020-09-21,8:0:1
122,641,2020-09-21,9:0:1
128,652,2020-09-21,10:0:1
131,660,2020-09-21,11:0:1
135,684,2020-09-21,12:0:2
132,748,2020-09-21,13:0:2
158,780,2020-09-21,14:0:1
176,849,2020-09-21,15:0:1
191,955,2020-09-21,16:0:1
193,1045,2020-09-21,17:0:1
217,1065,2020-09-21,18:0:1
253,1179,2020-09-21,19:0:2
265,1226,2020-09-21,20:0:1
246,1248,2020-09-21,21:0:1
234,1207,2020-09-21,22:0:1
234,1169,2020-09-21,23:0:1
232,1085,2020-09-22,0:0:1
218,1030,2020-09-22,1:0:1
231,1070,2020-09-22,2:0:2
212,1005,2020-09-22,3:0:2
170,930,2020-09-22,4:0:1
162,867,2020-09-22,5:0:1
125,801,2020-09-22,6:0:1
98,734,2020-09-22,7:0:2
97,698,2020-09-22,8:0:1
121,687,2020-09-22,9:0:1
122,681,2020-09-22,10:0:1
125,717,2020-09-22,11:0:1
134,724,2020-09-22,12:0:1
140,710,2020-09-22,13:0:1
152,831,2020-09-22,14:0:2
182,962,2020-09-22,15:0:1
191,1026,2020-09-22,16:0:1
189,1112,2020-09-22,17:0:1
219,1220,2020-09-22,18:0:1
239,1306,2020-09-22,19:0:1
276,1320,2020-09-22,20:0:2
273,1300,2020-09-22,21:0:2
236,1257,2020-09-22,22:0:1
212,1176,2020-09-22,23:0:1
214,1100,2020-09-23,0:0:1
226,1004,2020-09-23,1:0:1
220,981,2020-09-23,2:0:1
203,1006,2020-09-23,3:0:2
180,919,2020-09-23,4:0:2
167,841,2020-09-23,5:0:1
152,785,2020-09-23,6:0:1
125,702,2020-09-23,7:0:1
128,628,2020-09-23,8:0:2
136,610,2020-09-23,9:0:2
136,635,2020-09-23,10:0:1
139,648,2020-09-23,11:0:1
151,683,2020-09-23,12:0:1
149,716,2020-09-23,13:0:1
148,748,2020-09-23,14:0:1
177,880,2020-09-23,15:0:2
190,975,2020-09-23,16:0:2
215,1045,2020-09-23,17:0:1
239,1154,2020-09-23,18:0:1
261,1234,2020-09-23,19:0:1
249,1263,2020-09-23,20:0:1
253,1251,2020-09-23,21:0:1
243,1185,2020-09-23,22:0:2
212,1139,2020-09-23,23:0:1
217,1071,2020-09-24,0:0:1
212,1071,2020-09-24,1:0:1
193,1050,2020-09-24,2:0:1
167,988,2020-09-24,3:0:1
156,926,2020-09-24,4:0:1
139,844,2020-09-24,5:0:2
111,736,2020-09-24,6:0:2
119,686,2020-09-24,7:0:1
116,667,2020-09-24,8:0:1
114,630,2020-09-24,9:0:1
133,650,2020-09-24,10:0:2
123,678,2020-09-24,11:0:2
118,682,2020-09-24,12:0:1
141,696,2020-09-24,13:0:1
1,0,2020-09-24,14:0:1
103,525,2020-09-24,15:0:1
149,832,2020-09-24,16:0:1
191,949,2020-09-24,17:0:1
216,1070,2020-09-24,18:0:2
239,1172,2020-09-24,19:0:1
260,1223,2020-09-24,20:0:1
258,1112,2020-09-24,21:0:1
228,1152,2020-09-24,22:0:1
207,1122,2020-09-24,23:0:1
213,1023,2020-09-25,0:0:1
197,984,2020-09-25,1:0:2
195,930,2020-09-25,2:0:1
168,919,2020-09-25,3:0:1
174,844,2020-09-25,4:0:1
163,808,2020-09-25,5:0:1
140,758,2020-09-25,6:0:1
114,686,2020-09-25,7:0:1
118,660,2020-09-25,8:0:1
118,645,2020-09-25,9:0:1
128,663,2020-09-25,10:0:1
117,704,2020-09-25,11:0:1
121,733,2020-09-25,12:0:1
117,784,2020-09-25,13:0:2
153,818,2020-09-25,14:0:1
153,874,2020-09-25,15:0:1
176,958,2020-09-25,16:0:1
187,1078,2020-09-25,17:0:1
208,1168,2020-09-25,18:0:1
229,1210,2020-09-25,19:0:1
222,1245,2020-09-25,20:0:2
223,1265,2020-09-25,21:0:1
230,1224,2020-09-25,22:0:1
214,1171,2020-09-25,23:0:1
216,1082,2020-09-26,0:0:1
209,1005,2020-09-26,1:0:1
215,988,2020-09-26,2:0:1
218,997,2020-09-26,3:0:1
186,932,2020-09-26,4:0:2
178,870,2020-09-26,5:0:1
164,783,2020-09-26,6:0:1
147,742,2020-09-26,7:0:1
118,708,2020-09-26,8:0:1
99,700,2020-09-26,9:0:2
110,733,2020-09-26,10:0:1
116,771,2020-09-26,11:0:1
127,788,2020-09-26,12:0:1
158,842,2020-09-26,13:0:1
204,864,2020-09-26,14:0:1
220,947,2020-09-26,15:0:2
238,1029,2020-09-26,16:0:2
244,1102,2020-09-26,17:0:1
274,1204,2020-09-26,18:0:1
268,1295,2020-09-26,19:0:1
284,1276,2020-09-26,20:0:1
291,1232,2020-09-26,21:0:1
290,1347,2020-09-26,22:0:2
258,1274,2020-09-26,23:0:2
225,1165,2020-09-27,0:0:1
231,1056,2020-09-27,1:0:1
224,994,2020-09-27,2:0:1
203,986,2020-09-27,3:0:1
198,963,2020-09-27,4:0:1
165,890,2020-09-27,5:0:2
140,817,2020-09-27,6:0:2
131,769,2020-09-27,7:0:1
127,771,2020-09-27,8:0:1
125,755,2020-09-27,9:0:2
125,749,2020-09-27,10:0:2
151,779,2020-09-27,11:0:1
164,807,2020-09-27,12:0:1
184,872,2020-09-27,13:0:1
190,931,2020-09-27,14:0:1
217,1040,2020-09-27,15:0:1
238,1114,2020-09-27,16:0:1
244,1168,2020-09-27,17:0:2
269,1236,2020-09-27,18:0:1
284,1314,2020-09-27,19:0:1
288,1350,2020-09-27,20:0:1
264,1338,2020-09-27,21:0:1
260,1337,2020-09-27,22:0:1
232,1251,2020-09-27,23:0:1
236,1088,2020-09-28,0:0:2
213,1034,2020-09-28,1:0:1
230,1007,2020-09-28,2:0:1
215,950,2020-09-28,3:0:1
197,908,2020-09-28,4:0:1
156,817,2020-09-28,5:0:1
126,717,2020-09-28,6:0:1
120,679,2020-09-28,7:0:1
112,633,2020-09-28,8:0:1
108,617,2020-09-28,9:0:1
109,616,2020-09-28,10:0:1
105,640,2020-09-28,11:0:2
105,672,2020-09-28,12:0:2
115,748,2020-09-28,13:0:1
1,0,2020-09-28,14:0:1
89,424,2020-09-28,15:0:1
150,754,2020-09-28,16:0:1
170,914,2020-09-28,17:0:1
199,1005,2020-09-28,18:0:2
221,1040,2020-09-28,19:0:2
249,1083,2020-09-28,20:0:1
258,1097,2020-09-28,21:0:1
243,1046,2020-09-28,22:0:1
195,1002,2020-09-28,23:0:1
198,962,2020-09-29,0:0:1
210,913,2020-09-29,1:0:2
204,934,2020-09-29,2:0:2
198,861,2020-09-29,3:0:1
172,821,2020-09-29,4:0:1
133,732,2020-09-29,5:0:1
102,699,2020-09-29,6:0:1
104,636,2020-09-29,7:0:1
93,631,2020-09-29,8:0:1
89,604,2020-09-29,9:0:1
94,621,2020-09-29,10:0:1
99,717,2020-09-29,11:0:1
112,728,2020-09-29,12:0:1
123,788,2020-09-29,13:0:2
146,836,2020-09-29,14:0:1
165,887,2020-09-29,15:0:1
191,946,2020-09-29,16:0:1
198,956,2020-09-29,17:0:1
232,1064,2020-09-29,18:0:1
255,1175,2020-09-29,19:0:1
257,1225,2020-09-29,20:0:2
235,1216,2020-09-29,21:0:1
242,1171,2020-09-29,22:0:1
195,1106,2020-09-29,23:0:1
195,1026,2020-09-30,0:0:1
190,999,2020-09-30,1:0:1
195,959,2020-09-30,2:0:1
190,926,2020-09-30,3:0:2
180,854,2020-09-30,4:0:2
146,769,2020-09-30,5:0:1
115,710,2020-09-30,6:0:1
118,643,2020-09-30,7:0:1
108,625,2020-09-30,8:0:2
110,637,2020-09-30,9:0:1
93,645,2020-09-30,10:0:1
99,676,2020-09-30,11:0:1
101,699,2020-09-30,12:0:1
113,760,2020-09-30,13:0:1
119,804,2020-09-30,14:0:1
158,896,2020-09-30,15:0:2
178,986,2020-09-30,16:0:1
200,1057,2020-09-30,17:0:1
204,1113,2020-09-30,18:0:1
221,1172,2020-09-30,19:0:1
247,1202,2020-09-30,20:0:1
239,1149,2020-09-30,21:0:2
243,1116,2020-09-30,22:0:2
213,1061,2020-09-30,23:0:1
224,979,2020-10-01,0:0:1
209,938,2020-10-01,1:0:1
207,917,2020-10-01,2:0:1
177,894,2020-10-01,3:0:1
153,786,2020-10-01,4:0:1
143,729,2020-10-01,5:0:2
123,644,2020-10-01,6:0:1
107,617,2020-10-01,7:0:1
115,633,2020-10-01,8:0:1
104,632,2020-10-01,9:0:2
104,624,2020-10-01,10:0:2
90,615,2020-10-01,11:0:1
111,663,2020-10-01,12:0:1
113,702,2020-10-01,13:0:1
1,0,2020-10-01,14:0:1
106,498,2020-10-01,15:0:1
162,731,2020-10-01,16:0:2
199,903,2020-10-01,17:0:2
206,1004,2020-10-01,18:0:1
246,1056,2020-10-01,19:0:1
271,1079,2020-10-01,20:0:1
245,1087,2020-10-01,21:0:1
226,1062,2020-10-01,22:0:1
205,1027,2020-10-01,23:0:2
198,937,2020-10-02,0:0:2
195,928,2020-10-02,1:0:1
220,903,2020-10-02,2:0:1
198,857,2020-10-02,3:0:1
172,807,2020-10-02,4:0:1
167,753,2020-10-02,5:0:1
147,686,2020-10-02,6:0:2
134,639,2020-10-02,7:0:1
117,656,2020-10-02,8:0:1
118,647,2020-10-02,9:0:1
111,674,2020-10-02,10:0:1

 

So here we are; this month's summary stats :

    OLD     NEW     TOTAL     GROWTH          
Date O-Min O-Avg O-Max N-Min N-Avg M-Max Min Average Max O-Growth N-Growth T-Growth Weekly Min Weekly Ave Weekly Max MONTHLY AVG
01/09/2020 144 216 302 797 1150.792 1553 144 683.3958 1553 2.791667 -32 -14.6042        
02/09/2020 140 217.0833 295 776 1145.667 1513 140 681.375 1513 1.083333 -5.125 -2.02083        
03/09/2020 140 220.0833 311 731 1077.167 1461 140 648.625 1461 3 -68.5 -32.75        
04/09/2020 119 199.0417 305 722 1099.625 1510 119 649.3333 1510 -21.0417 22.45833 0.708333        
05/09/2020 141 229.4167 312 841 1184.667 1556 141 707.0417 1556 30.375 85.04167 57.70833        
06/09/2020 160 245.3333 418 848 1220.208 1598 160 732.7708 1598 15.91667 35.54167 25.72917        
07/09/2020 32 211.2083 324 731 1127.167 1654 32 669.1875 1654 -34.125 -93.0417 -63.5833 32 215.9762 418  
08/09/2020 124 189.6667 266 710 1099.125 1519 124 644.3958 1519 -21.5417 -28.0417 -24.7917        
09/09/2020 116 179.4167 265 716 1067.708 1426 116 623.5625 1426 -10.25 -31.4167 -20.8333        
10/09/2020 123 178.9167 267 657 1027.208 1450 123 603.0625 1450 -0.5 -40.5 -20.5        
11/09/2020 28 178.5417 252 261 1006.917 1424 28 592.7292 1424 -0.375 -20.2917 -10.3333        
12/09/2020 144 206.9167 299 803 1176.833 1577 144 691.875 1577 28.375 169.9167 99.14583        
13/09/2020 139 227.9583 319 840 1213.25 1635 139 720.6042 1635 21.04167 36.41667 28.72917        
14/09/2020 127 195.9583 267 693 1055.625 1415 127 625.7917 1415 -32 -157.625 -94.8125 28 193.5714 319  
15/09/2020 109 187.2917 272 688 1021.417 1353 109 604.3542 1353 -8.66667 -34.2083 -21.4375        
16/09/2020 132 184.75 245 710 1020.792 1419 132 602.7708 1419 -2.54167 -0.625 -1.58333        
17/09/2020 1 172.5417 249 0 927.5417 1341 1 550.0417 1341 -12.2083 -93.25 -52.7292        
18/09/2020 122 184.2917 255 664 987.5417 1332 122 585.9167 1332 11.75 60 35.875        
19/09/2020 135 218.25 393 756 1053.792 1451 135 636.0208 1451 33.95833 66.25 50.10417        
20/09/2020 167 221.25 322 825 1091.958 1461 167 656.6042 1461 3 38.16667 20.58333        
21/09/2020 122 185.2917 265 641 937.9167 1248 122 561.6042 1248 -35.9583 -154.042 -95 1 192.5536 393  
22/09/2020 97 181.5 276 681 968.7083 1320 97 575.1042 1320 -3.79167 30.79167 13.5        
23/09/2020 125 188.0417 261 610 922.1667 1263 125 555.1042 1263 6.541667 -46.5417 -20        
24/09/2020 1 162.9583 260 0 855.5 1223 1 509.2292 1223 -25.0833 -66.6667 -45.875        
25/09/2020 114 169.9167 230 645 923 1265 114 546.4583 1265 6.958333 67.5 37.22917        
26/09/2020 99 201.3333 291 700 979.625 1347 99 590.4792 1347 31.41667 56.625 44.02083        
27/09/2020 125 203.2917 288 749 1018.833 1350 125 611.0625 1350 1.958333 39.20833 20.58333        
28/09/2020 1 163.4167 258 0 812.125 1097 1 487.7708 1097 -39.875 -206.708 -123.292 1 179.6548 291  
29/09/2020 89 168.625 257 604 884.5417 1225 89 526.5833 1225 5.208333 72.41667 38.8125        
30/09/2020 93 165.625 247 625 895.1667 1202 93 530.3958 1202 -3 10.625 3.8125       195.1306

 

 

 

What does all this tell us?

Well, we're now in the place to start swearing violently.

 

There have been quite a few outages (3, our 0s and 1s for maxima and minima) in the latter part of the data, which may have influenced the results some.

 

However, what is clear is that average population has been dropping weekly and that the monthly average population of the old cluster is now 195.  We are at the "sub 200 point" hypothesised earlier.

 

Causation is still uncertain since the new cluster is also dropping; indeed this may just be "normal" drop off.  Looking at the table below we have the average population during the first week of September and the last week of September on both clusters.  The proportion is just the last week divided by the 1st week and it indicates what percentage of the population has vanished.

 

1st week   
OLD NEW
219.738086 1143.613
Last week  
OLD NEW
176.452386 909.8273
Proportion  
OLD NEW
0.8030123 0.795573

 

In both cases we've seen about a 20% drop in population; so this supports the argument for "natural decay" somewhat.

 

However, both playerbases may have different compositions (the old cluster is primarily old players [diehards] and the new cluster is primarily steam tourists [newbies]).  This makes comparison of their population proportions somewhat suspect until this can be verified.

 

 

I also have some data from last year and the pre-steam period, based in daily logins.  Now, these are likely to be underestimates, not overestimates; but for the month of September 2019 the average I observed was 321 players.  If I were to take the average of the MAXIMUM (as in highest daily player count logged) for the old cluster over the month of September 2020 I would have 286 players.  So even if we are being charitable, there has been a decline in player numbers since the same time of year last year.

 

Looking at the data from last year below

 

2019-06 337
2019-07 330.4138
2019-08 290.5556
2019-09 321.6038

 

We see that between June and September the old cluster lost 16 players.

 

Looking at the data from June this year below

 

2020-06 330.2353

 

Compared to our VERY GENEROUS figure of 286 , we see the old cluster has lost an average of 46 players.  The actual number is likely to be much higher; because remember 286 was being very generous!

 

This is strong evidence that something that occured between June and September has had a massive negative impact on the old cluster; at least 3x the amount of normal.  Even accounting for COVID-19, one suspects that there is more at play here.

 

 

While I can draw no definite conclusion, the data is suggesting that something has gone badly wrong with the old cluster's population.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The cluster is old. Old stuff dies. Old stuff gets clogged up with garbage and starts suffering from all that junk clogging it's arteries and it dies. It's the natural progression of things.  😉

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Etherdrifter said:

While I can draw no definite conclusion, the data is suggesting that something has gone badly wrong with the old cluster's population.

 

Are you taking into account that an awfully large number of older players are currently playing on the new servers? The old accounts are not gone, they simply aren't logging them in very often if at all since the steam launch, because they are on new characters now. This also means that some of the reduction in numbers on new servers now may well be those older players returning to the older accounts more or completely, or just burning out from the insane grinding going on there and taking a break. This is based on personal experience and while I realize some will stay on new servers for good, hopefully the majority will come home instead, but time will tell. The hardcore grinding and project work I've seen going on from those older players to me also promises more burn out coming so old server or new there will be more 'breaks' in the near future, reducing pops all around even more in the short term.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Tilda

The idea of a temporary dislocation is definitely feasable and is, perhaps, the most optimistic scenario available at the moment.  I'm not sure how I would prove (or disprove) it as the cause of population changes, even after the fact.  I'd likely need better access to data than I currently have, and the wurm team are particularly uncooperative on such fronts.

 

The only thing I can be certain of is that the prognostications that "the influx of new players will offset the loss of old players" on the old cluster has, so far, been proven false to a reasonable degree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Population data comparing 2020 to 2019 are worthless when they ignore the Elevation reset starting July 11, and the Jackal start starting September 1, 2019. Both events caused an, albeit temporary increase in overall participation, and return of some previous Wurm players. All comparisons of overall Wurm population, including Elevation and Jackal, to South Freedom cluster of nowadays, are fairly biased.

 

In fact, the population of the "old servers" has not considerably shrunk if at all.

September 2019:

Spoiler

linux-8h6e:~/wurm/players/ekcin/logs> grep "players are online" _Event.2019-09.txt | grep Xanadu

[02:22:17] 57 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (280 totally in Wurm).
[03:44:40] 54 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (276 totally in Wurm).
[15:10:10] 61 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (328 totally in Wurm).
[16:10:35] 7 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (121 totally in Wurm).
[22:57:07] 81 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (398 totally in Wurm).
[22:59:52] 80 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (399 totally in Wurm).
[05:50:40] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (299 totally in Wurm).
[10:29:00] 33 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (193 totally in Wurm).
[17:14:12] 59 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (339 totally in Wurm).
[06:51:16] 46 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (234 totally in Wurm).
[12:58:29] 38 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (206 totally in Wurm).
[20:03:38] 56 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (378 totally in Wurm).
[14:38:49] 39 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (237 totally in Wurm).
[08:40:43] 32 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (194 totally in Wurm).
[16:33:28] 61 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (258 totally in Wurm).
[10:41:06] 30 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (199 totally in Wurm).
[10:38:27] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (248 totally in Wurm).
[13:14:26] 40 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (271 totally in Wurm).
[08:12:07] 28 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (236 totally in Wurm).
[16:43:04] 72 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (350 totally in Wurm).
[00:01:43] 53 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (381 totally in Wurm).
[07:49:07] 22 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (209 totally in Wurm).
[15:59:10] 57 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (256 totally in Wurm).
[16:10:18] 57 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (264 totally in Wurm).
[19:12:55] 74 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (319 totally in Wurm).
[23:04:51] 61 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (345 totally in Wurm).
[08:21:54] 46 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (227 totally in Wurm).
[17:49:00] 58 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (265 totally in Wurm).
[10:12:24] 38 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (206 totally in Wurm).
[21:14:16] 73 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (326 totally in Wurm).
[08:26:38] 34 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (192 totally in Wurm).
[12:55:44] 38 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (210 totally in Wurm).
[19:07:08] 71 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (285 totally in Wurm).
[08:31:47] 28 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (199 totally in Wurm).
[15:19:11] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (122 totally in Wurm).
[19:08:22] 65 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (289 totally in Wurm).
[08:49:35] 49 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (242 totally in Wurm).
[09:38:26] 52 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (243 totally in Wurm).
[20:32:02] 95 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (378 totally in Wurm).
[09:45:22] 53 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (295 totally in Wurm).
[16:28:30] 41 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (213 totally in Wurm).
[19:56:06] 85 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (386 totally in Wurm).
[09:55:42] 24 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (216 totally in Wurm).
[12:58:26] 32 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (247 totally in Wurm).
[15:29:38] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (204 totally in Wurm).
[21:07:22] 85 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (370 totally in Wurm).
[07:18:11] 29 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (219 totally in Wurm).
[08:42:50] 23 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (202 totally in Wurm).
[21:18:45] 75 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (356 totally in Wurm).
[09:54:55] 37 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (188 totally in Wurm).
[20:54:54] 61 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (338 totally in Wurm).
[09:30:02] 40 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (222 totally in Wurm).
[15:49:18] 44 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (246 totally in Wurm).
[21:28:38] 62 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (321 totally in Wurm).
[07:36:55] 27 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (215 totally in Wurm).
[20:35:47] 61 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (291 totally in Wurm).
[09:00:23] 39 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (217 totally in Wurm).
[21:40:57] 78 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (362 totally in Wurm).
[21:58:51] 70 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (340 totally in Wurm).
[22:07:31] 64 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (322 totally in Wurm).
[22:11:18] 64 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (327 totally in Wurm).
[11:46:43] 48 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (215 totally in Wurm).
[07:48:41] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (174 totally in Wurm).
[17:37:53] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (267 totally in Wurm).
[22:32:00] 49 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (293 totally in Wurm).
[09:28:38] 34 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (187 totally in Wurm).
[08:58:30] 33 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (171 totally in Wurm).
[09:06:39] 32 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (168 totally in Wurm).
[14:58:09] 45 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (207 totally in Wurm).
[15:33:37] 8 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (60 totally in Wurm).
[22:54:09] 70 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (344 totally in Wurm).
[10:30:36] 28 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (199 totally in Wurm).
[11:08:32] 26 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (200 totally in Wurm).
[11:22:04] 28 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (203 totally in Wurm).
[20:05:24] 63 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (320 totally in Wurm).
[02:54:43] 47 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (280 totally in Wurm).
[10:15:37] 51 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (221 totally in Wurm).
[14:33:03] 65 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (285 totally in Wurm).
[15:48:30] 66 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (305 totally in Wurm).
[08:16:17] 41 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (205 totally in Wurm).
[07:45:29] 33 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (183 totally in Wurm).
[16:31:26] 63 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (263 totally in Wurm).

 

 

September 2020:

Spoiler

linux-8h6e:~/wurm/players/ekcin/logs> grep "players are online" _Event.2020-09.txt | grep Xanadu
[08:58:35] 44 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (955 totally in Wurm).
[09:40:53] 43 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (935 totally in Wurm).
[09:42:20] 43 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (940 totally in Wurm).
[09:51:44] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (931 totally in Wurm).
[10:04:08] 40 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (928 totally in Wurm).
[10:04:48] 40 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (929 totally in Wurm).
[10:14:19] 46 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (955 totally in Wurm).
[07:45:42] 53 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (962 totally in Wurm).
[08:05:13] 39 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (931 totally in Wurm).
[08:06:41] 38 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (925 totally in Wurm).
[08:07:26] 38 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (924 totally in Wurm).
[08:16:49] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (922 totally in Wurm).
[08:06:21] 40 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1057 totally in Wurm).
[13:13:26] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1134 totally in Wurm).
[18:05:01] 93 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1686 totally in Wurm).
[22:00:03] 93 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1843 totally in Wurm).
[07:45:46] 47 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1116 totally in Wurm).
[20:29:22] 74 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1981 totally in Wurm).
[08:39:00] 49 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1017 totally in Wurm).
[11:56:22] 35 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (957 totally in Wurm).
[17:04:19] 38 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (998 totally in Wurm).
[09:14:33] 49 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (844 totally in Wurm).
[09:05:03] 50 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (858 totally in Wurm).
[08:47:33] 34 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (808 totally in Wurm).
[14:53:13] 46 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (992 totally in Wurm).
[12:30:59] 39 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (935 totally in Wurm).
[16:32:06] 20 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (513 totally in Wurm).
[10:07:55] 39 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (972 totally in Wurm).
[12:04:21] 45 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1070 totally in Wurm).
[13:26:22] 51 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1158 totally in Wurm).
[17:47:29] 81 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1629 totally in Wurm).
[08:40:13] 48 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (843 totally in Wurm).
[23:44:05] 83 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1546 totally in Wurm).
[07:45:58] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (904 totally in Wurm).
[08:33:06] 41 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (833 totally in Wurm).
[08:37:43] 37 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (831 totally in Wurm).
[11:46:42] 56 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (884 totally in Wurm).
[13:34:12] 48 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (908 totally in Wurm).
[12:41:06] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (888 totally in Wurm).
[15:25:56] 6 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (278 totally in Wurm).
[09:32:05] 43 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (824 totally in Wurm).
[10:00:30] 40 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (814 totally in Wurm).
[10:26:34] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (804 totally in Wurm).
[11:01:22] 43 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (806 totally in Wurm).
[20:33:17] 85 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1522 totally in Wurm).
[14:16:32] 64 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1069 totally in Wurm).
[18:10:53] 89 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1504 totally in Wurm).
[20:45:49] 94 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1706 totally in Wurm).
[11:02:53] 64 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1030 totally in Wurm).
[11:04:55] 35 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (788 totally in Wurm).
[09:10:02] 35 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (811 totally in Wurm).
[15:34:29] 50 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1072 totally in Wurm).
[08:50:31] 42 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (780 totally in Wurm).
[17:31:22] 64 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1241 totally in Wurm).
[18:21:06] 72 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1305 totally in Wurm).
[18:26:22] 71 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1322 totally in Wurm).
[18:27:06] 71 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1317 totally in Wurm).
[18:42:18] 69 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1353 totally in Wurm).
[18:42:25] 70 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1354 totally in Wurm).
[07:19:43] 46 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (842 totally in Wurm).
[15:37:08] 11 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (356 totally in Wurm).
[08:10:26] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (790 totally in Wurm).
[10:20:43] 33 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (755 totally in Wurm).
[10:28:23] 33 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (766 totally in Wurm).
[10:29:40] 33 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (769 totally in Wurm).
[15:49:55] 47 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1019 totally in Wurm).
[10:12:32] 32 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (842 totally in Wurm).
[10:24:00] 26 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (846 totally in Wurm).
[02:07:24] 81 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1279 totally in Wurm).
[11:59:19] 49 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (938 totally in Wurm).
[12:14:50] 55 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (937 totally in Wurm).
[22:17:11] 86 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1570 totally in Wurm).
[08:21:37] 51 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (802 totally in Wurm).
[09:46:46] 36 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (738 totally in Wurm).
[17:33:44] 49 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1001 totally in Wurm).
[08:31:28] 35 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (733 totally in Wurm).
[19:35:13] 86 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1405 totally in Wurm).
[06:49:47] 35 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (853 totally in Wurm).
[17:31:06] 63 other players are online. You are on Xanadu (1249 totally in Wurm).

 

The login data for Xanadu do not differ considerably: 30 to <50 in the mornings, 70 to <100 in the evenings. The large difference is in overall participation in Wurm Online which is about 3 to 4 times more than a year ago.

Edited by Ekcin
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Ekcin

You might want to graph those login times; looks to me like you've shifted from playing in the evenings (especially after 7pm) to 8am wurming.  That's quite a substantive change in timezones.

 

A single server is more likely to suffer from conflating factors, especially given your timezone shift and is thus less reliable.  Indeed, taking all servers together is mildly more reliable as it can dampen the impact of conflating issues.

 

While there is no argument that wurm has grown; the foundation of our argument is that I'm claiming the old cluster is in a worse off position than it was before the new clustered opened; you are claiming otherwise.  The evidence suggests I am currently correct (as I was about the "sub 200 average").

 

 

 

Now that's dealt with, lets have some fun!

 

In the table below the September SUM column is the sum of all players logged in on the old cluster at that time.  The september count is a count of the number of times an entry for that hour was logged (all 30 as it should be) - pardon the need to split this, I am using an old version of excel.  Next we have what I like to call the "Ekcin Hour Count"; this is the total number of times your timestamp showed that hour from the data you provided for 2019.  The "Ekcin Ratio" is the Ekcin Hour Count divided by the total number of times you logged the population count (82) during September 2019.  Multiplying this ratio by the September SUM/September Count gives us a "contribution" value to the average.  [Continued below the dataset]

 

Hour September SUM September Count Ekcin Hour Count Ekcin Ratio Contribution
0 6934 30 1 0.012195122 2.818699187
1 6789 30 0 0 0
2 6764 30 2 0.024390244 5.499186992
3 6318 30 1 0.012195122 2.568292683
4 5776 30 0 0 0
5 5145 30 1 0.012195122 2.091463415
6 4493 30 1 0.012195122 1.826422764
7 4097 30 5 0.06097561 8.327235772
8 4013 30 9 0.109756098 14.68170732
9 3998 30 8 0.097560976 13.00162602
10 3975 30 6 0.073170732 9.695121951
11 4035 30 3 0.036585366 4.920731707
12 4241 30 3 0.036585366 5.17195122
13 4611 30 1 0.012195122 1.874390244
14 4653 30 3 0.036585366 5.674390244
15 5094 30 7 0.085365854 14.49512195
16 6145 30 6 0.073170732 14.98780488
17 6730 30 3 0.036585366 8.207317073
18 7326 30 0 0 0
19 8145 30 4 0.048780488 13.24390244
20 8237 30 5 0.06097561 16.74186992
21 8144 30 6 0.073170732 19.86341463
22 7733 30 6 0.073170732 18.86097561
23 7098 30 1 0.012195122 2.885365854
      Checksum 1  
      AVERAGE 187.4369919  

 

Essentially, a weighted average based on your old playtimes is obtained by summing these up.  Using the data you provided for your playtimes it looks like the average number of players you would see online in the old cluster would be about 187.43 if you played at the same times you did last year.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your fallacy lies in "the old cluster". Wurm Online of autum 2019 consisted of "the old cluster" plus Epic plus Jackal. Epic was not as relevant anymore in September, as it has been, significantly, in July and August, but still held 2 digit numbers. Jackal had started September 1. I have only 3 entries from Jackal at that time as I was there only shortly for 3 days, and found entries from 9/2/19 at  05:52:08 : 91 players on Jackal, 296 in Wurm,  23:26:15 111/368, and 16:32:27 64/254 . You may try hard by denying the Xanadu figures, but not excluding Jackal is outright negligent to say the least.

 

The share of Jackal in its first week (there was a significant decrease after 3-4 weeks) of overall Wurm was 25-30% at that time. The data are interesting insofar as they show the readiness to migrate among the seasoned Wurmians. While we can only speculate about old players' participation in NFI, it will probably not be lower than Jackal's.

 

Btw. you are wrong about my playtimes. The times you see are either login/relog times, server crossings, or /who results. Depending on my location and the hardware used, I often used and use to login for a day or more staying afk inbetween.

Edited by Ekcin
addendum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the problem with this data it doesn't show alts.

 

Our town went from 140 people recruited, to only 10 people playing.  Of those 10 people, 3 are priests and have at least 2 alts (one has 5). 

 

So in reality the population has died a considerable amount.  Now that coins are harvested, people are creating alts to botanize/forage with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/5/2020 at 12:16 PM, Finnn said:

should we be worried, now?

Why? the cost to run the servers is still paid for big time by the amount of players playing and the "core" staff group's operational cost isnt that high anyway and if it comes down to it im sure they can just stop reimbursing @Retrogradehis energy drinks on late nights or early mornings and it should be fine ;)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now