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Nikko

Pricing of items past and future - - time for a correction

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This is to be a serious discussion I hope we can make it productive and informative.

The market of course has been in a free fall with a declining population, then the selloff due to removal of RMT.

 

Its time for a market correction!

Population has seen a steady increase and Merchants and bulk sellers I think need to go back to basics on pricing and not continue to run items and bulk goods down to these low ball rates. 

 

New and old players alike will quote that prices per action are 10 iron per action which has been fairly steady price quoted yet it jsut isnt followed.

Dirt/sand/clay etc for example merchants and bulk sellers have run these prices down to basically nothing 20-30c per k for new and existing players to strive in this player driven economy we should think of resetting out standard pricing back to basics.  How fair is it to tell a new player yes its 10 iron an action then tell him after he dig u 1000 dirt here's 10 copper for you?

 

I am sure this will meet with some negativity as most things do from at least some people.  But if merchants and bulk sellers unite on the pricing and help to correct the market to be stable and rewarding for all the sellers the buyers and the workers the overall economy for new players especially will be attractive in my opinion.  There is no more RMT so this is no way contributes to a greed sense of mentality its just a correction of fairness in pricing.  Some veterans and sellers still do stick with eh actual 10 iron per action market pricing.  Its not to say don't give bulk discounts but lets have a starting price where its still rewarding for all parties.

 

Heres a few that might need some correction (if i missed any pls add in the discussion)

 

Bricks 2s/k (certain types maybe 2.5s/k marble/slate for example)

Mortar 3s/k

Dirt/clay/tar/sand 1s/k

Gems what ever happen here from 1c over 10ql down to 20, 10 iron?  Even if not the 1c/2c maybe 1c under 10ql/50 iron over 10 ql

Support beams seem on par 4s/100

Wemp 1s/k

Crops base price 1s/k

Sprouts 1c per some 2c (seems that price holds steady)

 

There is many more items planks. beams, concrete etc But if sellers stick together on the base price and give bulk discounts where applicable I think we will find ourselves without all the "well this guy sell 1k for 20c , or I have a spreadsheet with wht i paid"  Base pricing isnt about what you pay its about a standard price that sellers can work from and if they hire works  or new players they can all make some silvers for upkeeps or shiny purchases or prem from the token!

 

So all the recent sell offs and undercutting that has gone on are not the bases prices continually quoting such drives it to a no player economy situation.  I hope this thread is met with some productive repsonses.

 

As Always  Happy Wurming

 

 

 

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Guy from freedom were looking for dirt on Epic.

I got some, so I offered that I can sell him some dirt at standard price 1s/1k (it was standard price on Epic like always) or cheaper if he gonna buy more.

His reaction was like I was trying to rob him, "couse on freedom dirt is twice cheaper on even less".

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wait dirt prices have dropped that low? geez i really should check trade more i just recently sold a bsb of clay for 16s that price drop must have been really recently

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7 minutes ago, wipeout said:

wait dirt prices have dropped that low? geez i really should check trade more i just recently sold a bsb of clay for 16s that price drop must have been really recently

Thing is, it was like 1-2 months ago. I don't know current prices on freedom.

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I'm not sure this kind of discussion is useful or valuable.  Prices of bulks are whatever people are willing to buy and sell them for. 

 

I do agree with you that these bulks may rise in price after the rmt craze is over.  I think people are just trying to unload their stock which is driving prices down.  After March I believe prices will rise again, but I don't know by much.

 

I think it's a more interesting discussion to speculate what these prices will be like when steam comes out. 

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What "productive responses" are you expecting this thread to met with @Nikko?

 

Having predictable pricing would be convenient. That's about the most I can say for it. And with the end of RMT, I believe there will be a market correction, and it won't be to raise prices back to what they've been for roughly the last ten years.

 

Disclaimer: I have no background in economics and my crystal ball is current in the shop for repairs. That said, here's my logic: a $10 Visa gift card is more valuable than a $10 Starbucks gift card. I can use the the Visa gift card at Starbucks, but I can also use it at the movies or grocery store or dinner out. My Starbucks card is good at -- Starbucks. That's it. So when players could exchange in-game currency for out-of-game currency, it was of more value to them. Now, silver -- like the Starbucks card -- is good in only one place. With silver worth less, the same in-game action (or material) will result in less silver.

 

That's my opinion. Yours is clearly different. I hope you find this post productive. I only find it opinionated, and I rarely find opinions "productive" (of anything other than more opinions).

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The prices of Wurms economy is based on the same principles of a normal market: Supply and Demand. Prices are as high as they need to be because of this principle, and the only thing that's been keeping up their prices all these years has been RMT(bar a few exceptions since recent updates). Most of these items experiencing price drops is due to the lack of demand for said products, go ask the the average player if they need more dirt and they'll show you the k's they're sitting on.

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1 hour ago, MrJonnyboy said:

The prices of Wurms economy is based on the same principles of a normal market: Supply and Demand. Prices are as high as they need to be because of this principle, and the only thing that's been keeping up their prices all these years has been RMT(bar a few exceptions since recent updates). Most of these items experiencing price drops is due to the lack of demand for said products, go ask the the average player if they need more dirt and they'll show you the k's they're sitting on.

Also there's a flood of stuff on the market from people converting to euro before the change.

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I have severely underpriced my sellables (90+QL carpentry-items with enchants) and they still won't sell. As mentioned earlier, it's a supply and demand thing and I hope it will be rectified after the end of RMT!

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I'll be happy to sell you all the bulk you want for the prices you listed.  Problem is, so are the other 500 people selling.

 

I anticipate the price of dirt to increase slightly, now that Nahjo priests are gone.  Sure, Fo priests can still cast dirt... but after the ridiculous nerf to chopped veggies I don't see this happening much.

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You aren't going to be able to set global prices. Either your price is right and people will buy and sell for that anyway, or your price is too high and some sellers will undercut you because they are okay with making less. And if people are willing to part with dirt for 30c per k, for example, then that's the market price of dirt at the moment, and it's a fair price. If the seller thinks it isn't a fair price they're free to try and get more after all, or just not sell it.

 

If you think it's not fair that someone is willing to sell dirt for a price you're not willing to sell dirt for, and therefore you can't sell dirt... well, that's how markets work.

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Items tend to be worth other items of comparable effort, so any sort of trade whether it be for silver to get an item or the item itself, is always going to function just dandy for me.  It seems it is about how long the game lasts.  It would be optimistic to say that in 10 years wurm's entire software engineering ends up being completely on its way out and that the best thing the dev team ends up being able to do is import the skill sheets, but hey I will mess with wurm.

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Chaos was a huge chunk of the market when it came to bulk: 20k bricks and 20k mortar orders were a drop of the hat on Chaos when two kingdoms were warring. Bricks were needed to replace catapulted walls, or dirt was needed for a new war deed. Someome would come to freedom and empty out someone's stores and then run back to Chaos with mats for the war effort.

 

Now thats gone, and with it a huge chunk of the bulk market.

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On 2/29/2020 at 4:48 PM, MrJonnyboy said:

The prices of Wurms economy is based on the same principles of a normal market: Supply and Demand. Prices are as high as they need to be because of this principle, and the only thing that's been keeping up their prices all these years has been RMT(bar a few exceptions since recent updates). Most of these items experiencing price drops is due to the lack of demand for said products, go ask the the average player if they need more dirt and they'll show you the k's they're sitting on.

 

I tend to contradict here. Even on real world market, supply and demand are dictated by available incomes/funds and production efforts as the fundamental drivers. For the demand side, not much has changed since PvP on Chaos has widely died down (which is since a year approximately, preceded by continuous drop - leaving out Epic here due to insufficient knowledge).

 

Customers still wish bulk, imps, enchants, items, and demand them over the available methods like traders, merchants, and trade channel, or sometimes just by asking established suppliers. For them, not much has changed as they buy now from the shop (like many did anyway) but to a rate very close to the player to player rate of previous RMT silver sales. Players with projects depending on marketable objects will widely do what they did, buying.

 

For the available funds things are slightly different. Established players offering creation and re-improvement of high quality and/or enchanted items collect considerable funds of silver which have been redistributed via RMT which is not viable anymore. It remains to see whether those will cut down their activities or just let the gold amassing on their bank accounts. Those who mainly or fully targeted real money income will cut or stop production anyway, or did so already. This will cut demand to some extent too as the highly productive mass sellers depended on a supply chain of crafters to some extent. on

 

So we are on the supply side. Here in particular, productivity is often overlooked when simply speaking about "demand and supply". And productivity highly increased with specialized suppliers using highly enchanted highest ql tools with specialized alt accounts. I recall a blog post by factional fight brothers from the beginnings of Xanadu reporting that they sold (as newbies) 200 planks for 2 silver. In the Wurm where I started end of 2017 2-3k planks were sold for that price. A high level carpenter with a rare/supreme high ql saw could produce that amount probably faster than the newcomers 3 or 4 years before their 200 planks. Now, with RMT gone, and high level accounts not transferable anymore, productivity will drop at least somewhat. This might result in price increase, but not necessarily, as the supply will shift towards smaller suppliers with more competition and less able to set prices. For demanders of masses of items or bulk, it may become somewhat more tedious (collecting from multiple small producers) but not necessarily more expensive.

 

With RMT, an external driver for ingame trade is gone which was both stabilizing and disruptive for the ingame economy to some extent. It remains to see the results of the recent changes under that aspect.

Edited by Ekcin
typos

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1 hour ago, Ekcin said:

 

[...] Now, with RMT gone, and high level accounts not transferable anymore, productivity will drop at least somewhat. This might result in price increase, but not necessarily, as the supply will shift towards smaller suppliers with more competition and less able to set prices. For demanders of masses of items or bulk, it may become somewhat more tedious (collecting from multiple small producers) but not necessarily more expensive.

 

Supply can stabilize itself depending on the prices. For example at the lately going rates I don't wish to spend my ingame time on imping for cash but there is a revenue where I may feel like getting back into that business.

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You will never get the prices again, as they were. With "free" money gone from traders etc, people will think twice before giving out coin. It was the "free" money, which was pumping up the economy.

 

It will be interesting to see the developments, what will happen to the economy now. Of course these are long term changes and will be visible after longer period of the time.

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Return on time invested .. if the amount (for example) my 95 skill blacksmith earns imping tools to 90+ ql gets too low, but the time required doesnt change i get to a point where im not willing to invest the time in imping any more.. and im well past that stage now.

 

My main reason for doing imping is to make enough to pay most if not all my deeds upkeep, and ideally have a little left over for when i need a weapon reimped .. but while the amount i earn has dropped, the cost of my deed hasnt changed, enough to make up for the reduction .. so economy no longer fits my needs.

 

Just my 0.2c

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Similar economic shifts I've noticed on Epic over the years. Items that used to be valued at 5-6 silvers a piece, ended up selling for 1 S a pop.

 

Examples were weapons and plate armour sets which were a requirement for pvp. Back in 2014 price for a 85-90 ql plate set was around 5 Silvers minimum and at best you could sell it for 10 S. At that time it implied making steel, then imping the armour up which involved 2 skills.  Personally I always made people an offer that if they didn't have silvers, they could get a set by doing some chores around  the deed, such as help with digging clay or such. I always enjoyed the barter aspect of Wurm, services for goods.

 

Over time, pvp deaths meant that those sets ended up in various kingdom's storehouses. A plateset would be sold for 1 silver at best these days. At least back in 2019 I managed to sell a set for that price. Buyer wouldn't go any higher, and I didn't want to press. Also when you consider you can make armours now out of any metal, it obviously affected the price. Add to that the fact that armor protection changed through the updates, with lower ql armor providing more protection on a curve.  That's just one example for one item, but it stands out because everyone needs armor in game.

 

The issue isn't just a lot of competition on the market but the lack of turnaround. Bricks get used. Planks when bought bet used. So does dirt or mortar. Price on those item has shifted only slightly over the years.


But tools, weapons, armor usually stay in game forever. And that is where the core issue lies I think. Because anything in game isn't bound to a character, an item just ends up recycled eventually. With 500 000+    80-90 ql hammers in WO , who's going to pay a few silvers for another 90 ql hammer?

 

Items are only worth as much as their rarity and usefulness. In a way WO perfectly reflects RL economic trends. Items get mass produced = expectations for cheap prices become standard. PC's nowaday are dirt cheap compared to a PC in the 80s.

 

I don't think RMT removal will affect the market negatively, but I do believe that as long as there is no "item sink" in game, prices will just go down over time to the point where it's not worth it to spend 30 mins imping a hammer to 90 ql , just to sell it for 20 coppers.

Edited by elentari

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I disagree here. There is an item sink, namely dropping ql (maybe the repair change or bug [?] impaired that). Few months ago I bought a ql95 huge axe (nicely enchanted) for rift combat. It did not take very long til it was down to 70 and below.

 

The problem rather is that dropping or stagnating player numbers reduce demand while productivity has gone up. The latter may have reached a plateau or even slight decline in the future as old accounts will vanish in numbers due to account trafficking ban.

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4 hours ago, Ekcin said:

I disagree here. There is an item sink, namely dropping ql (maybe the repair change or bug [?] impaired that). Few months ago I bought a ql95 huge axe (nicely enchanted) for rift combat. It did not take very long til it was down to 70 and below.

 

The problem rather is that dropping or stagnating player numbers reduce demand while productivity has gone up. The latter may have reached a plateau or even slight decline in the future as old accounts will vanish in numbers due to account trafficking ban.

 

Productivity has gone up big time over the years. Runes to make imping easier, Imbues to make imping easier. It all adds up to increasing productivity, which increases supply and lowers the price further. At the same time ways to reduce the ql dropping have also steadily been added, from runes to reduce damage, to rarity reducting damage, to steel being usable for everything and reducing damage to repair buffs for Vynora followers. That all adds up to reduce demand for impings, again lowering the price.

 

But I agree that stagnating player numbers and increased productivity are the biggest issues. RMT and account sales out of the window items are more likely to remain on inactive characters,  instead of being sold alongside them to another player. So that helps to at least take stuff out of circulation, while it otherwise would have remained in circulation. Now we just need those player numbers to go up. Hopefully the steam launch will be enough of a success to get that done.

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38 minutes ago, Ecrir said:

Now we just need those player numbers to go up. Hopefully the steam launch will be enough of a success to get that done.

 

Player numbers have gone up the last few months, as has server traffic (which is a rough approximation of player engagement). It remains to be seen what the longer term trends are of course.

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Up to the point where RMT ended, the value of silver was directly tied to 2 things:  How much do we pay to buy it, and how much do we get when we sell it.  This is evidenced by the fact that up until RMT was in effect, in-game prices were higher because silver was cheaper to buy from the players instead of the shop.  Now that RMT is in effect, the value is tied directly to one thing - cost, which is now fixed based on what CC sells it for.  If CC lowers the cost of silver in the shop, in-game prices will rise, just as prices were higher back when we could get silver cheaper from players.  If CC raises the cost of silver in the shop, in-game prices will drop just as they now have due to the fact that silver is now more expensive to obtain.  The decision to sell coin in the shop is the singular factor to controlling inflation in the game.  Yes, items are now much cheaper because silver is now much more expensive.  The rest is simply supply and demand and what people are willing to spend for items they want.

 

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7 hours ago, elentari said:

prices will just go down over time to the point where it's not worth it to spend 30 mins imping a hammer to 90 ql , just to sell it for 20 coppers.

 

If the only reason you're imping a hammer is to sell it, I question your priorities. Playing a game, and all the things you do while playing that game, should have a motivation beyond profit. Even if you were getting a silver for it is 30 minutes of your life worth a dollar? If all you want is silver than you're always going to be able to invest the time and effort more effectively by performing actions in real life and buying silver from the shop. Be it working an hour at your job, mowing a lawn, collecting soda cans, or begging for change, you'll still come out ahead. Choosing to be a master smith should be done because you enjoy smithing, want to continue to improve your skill, and like to provide high quality tools to your friends and peers. Whatever coin you get out of it is really just a bonus and a token to provide some sense of accomplishment.

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21 minutes ago, CreZ said:

 

If the only reason you're imping a hammer is to sell it, I question your priorities. Playing a game, and all the things you do while playing that game, should have a motivation beyond profit. Even if you were getting a silver for it is 30 minutes of your life worth a dollar? If all you want is silver than you're always going to be able to invest the time and effort more effectively by performing actions in real life and buying silver from the shop. Be it working an hour at your job, mowing a lawn, collecting soda cans, or begging for change, you'll still come out ahead. Choosing to be a master smith should be done because you enjoy smithing, want to continue to improve your skill, and like to provide high quality tools to your friends and peers. Whatever coin you get out of it is really just a bonus and a token to provide some sense of accomplishment.

Just simple question... "Why?"..

 

The heck, I have been playing even single player games, where I do like to make money, but for some reason in Wurm it is BAD.

It is funny, how trading in Wurm has been made something you should be ashamed of. No offence Crez, but who are you to tell people, how they should be playing the game? As long they do that in following all the rules, not abusing any game mechanics and not harassing anyone.

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26 minutes ago, CreZ said:

 

If the only reason you're imping a hammer is to sell it, I question your priorities. Playing a game, and all the things you do while playing that game, should have a motivation beyond profit. Even if you were getting a silver for it is 30 minutes of your life worth a dollar? If all you want is silver than you're always going to be able to invest the time and effort more effectively by performing actions in real life and buying silver from the shop. Be it working an hour at your job, mowing a lawn, collecting soda cans, or begging for change, you'll still come out ahead. Choosing to be a master smith should be done because you enjoy smithing, want to continue to improve your skill, and like to provide high quality tools to your friends and peers. Whatever coin you get out of it is really just a bonus and a token to provide some sense of accomplishment.

 

I honestly don't understand your reasoning here. Not attacking you, but your argument, fyi.

 

It isn't about making a profit, it's about Justifying your skills in which you've poured your own personal time. If I want my 30 ql knarr to be faster, I'll hire a shipbuilder to imp it to 90. He'll obviously have a right to be paid for that service. If he makes it his Wurm goal to be a badass shipbuilder, it's his right, if that's his fun, then good for him.

 

If someone's fun is to be a master blacksmith and sell hammers, why is that a bad thing?

Just to understand where I am coming from, but I've played on Epic in an alliance where most things were handed out for free to allies, horses, tools, weps, and very rarely there were items sold, precisely because we wanted to cultivate an atmosphere of friendship and help each other.

 

But do I have a right to condemn someone that wants to sell horses instead of giving them away after leaving the socialist utopia Epic once was  ? ( slight joke in there)

 

How many players in game are 100% self sufficient in every possible skill, from breeding, to smithing, mining, woodcutting, metallurgy, farming, etc. that have earned every last decimal of those skills ? A handful?

 

Wurm as a sandbox game allows you to trade skills as a playstyle. It actively encourages it by game design  on freedom where skillgain are slower and forces you to develop only a few professions.

 

Coincidentally, I love smithing in game. Do I enjoy giving tools and stuff for free to friends? Yes. Would I like to pay my deed upkeep by selling tools to wurmians for silvers? Also yes.

 

Did I grind 90 wep smithing just for fun? Not really. I actually wanted to have good weapons & also make some money from it. My motivations, like most wurmians are multiple.  Should I start giving out 90 ql weps for free just because "I should enjoy that" ? I'm not for being selfish not selfless. I'm just pointing out that Wurm is a game where you actively sell your time. You're paying not just for an item, be it a hammer or longsword.

 

You're paying for all the time a player has invested in being able to craft and imp a longsword to 90 ql. That should be reflected in value. It's no different than RL.

 

If suddenly the market shifts to the point where a 90 ql longsword is worth a few coppers, then I won't even bother heating up the forge. I have in game costs as well. Deed upkeep and maybe I want to buy some dragon scales. Should I start selling 100    90 ql weapons for pennies just to afford 1 kg of scale? Nope.  Instead of wasting 50 hours of RL time doing that I'd rather use 50 hours to work and buy that silver from the shop. Then I would come out ahead. And then you'd see why the market is dying when prices become too low. It just isn't worth it to sell certain things if they become too cheap.

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