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Delacroix

Make results for actions accurately reflect listed success rates.

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There's something wonky going on when I can, over the course of thousands of actions, consistently see a failure rate of over 10% with a listed success chance of 97%.

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Just bad luck. Ever rolled 2d10 dice badly multiple times in a row? I have.

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8 minutes ago, Kswords said:

Just bad luck. Ever rolled 2d10 dice badly multiple times in a row? I have.

 

>comparing consistent sample sizes of thousands of actions to a handful dice rolls

Edited by Delacroix
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It'd also be nice to see success odds for continuing and improving aswell. At least keep the RNG transparent if it's not consistent...which i'm not 100% sure it's not to be honest, there are some wonky phases but I haven't observed such a massive discrepancy over such a long time personally.

Do you have logs of a particular action to showcase the exact success to failure ratio? Would be interesting to see just how off the listed success rate is in whatever scenario has presumably prompted this.

 

7 hours ago, Kswords said:

Just bad luck. Ever rolled 2d10 dice badly multiple times in a row? I have.

 

If OPs observation is correct even in a very rough way, this isn't just bad luck by any stretch. They said they fail over 10% with a 97% success rate over thousands of samples. Let's put that in here.

https://mathcracker.com/normal-approximation-binomial-distribution.php

Let's just use 1K sample size, set probability to 97%, choose Left-Tailed and set X<=900 (reflecting the 10% failure rate that is being observed by using 0.9N as threshold).

Result: Pr(X900)0

It's literally (almost) impossible for a 97% success rate to roll less than 900 times over a sample size of 1000. I'd have to brush up on statistics to calculate what other underlying distribution(s) this experiment suggests, but I think that assuming OP isn't lying, and I don't think they are, it's safe to say something is off.

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8 hours ago, Kswords said:

Just bad luck. Ever rolled 2d10 dice badly multiple times in a row? I have.

No, THAT is just bad luck.

Ever failed to make a kindling THREE times in a ROW at 99% chance with a supreme 95QL knife? I have.

 

The chances in this game are not accurate whatsoever, and never have been.

My general rule of thumb for years has been to subtract about 15% from any given chance as displayed in the context menu, and you have your rough ACTUAL chance to do/make something.

I can't tell you how often I fail to make items while rare spamming, items which the game otherwise tells me I have an effective 100% chance (no chance for failure) to successfully create. Sometimes fails back to back. It's really not uncommon.

A 100% chance in this game acts like a 90-95% chance. And FYI my sample sizes for rare spamming actions are huge, I could easily provide event logs with samples in excess of 5-10k actions across multiple characters with similar skills.

 

Edited by whereami
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I agree, Wurm definitely does not show correct success %, on many tasks it does feel like the actual chance is like 10% lower than shown.

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I find it hard to believe this isn't attributable to cognitive bias.

 

For example:

On 4/24/2019 at 3:06 AM, whereami said:

Ever failed to make a kindling THREE times in a ROW at 99% chance with a supreme 95QL knife? I have.

 

If it's truly 99%, then the probability of three failures in a row is 0.0001%, or literally one in a million. That seems extremely unlikely; however:

  1. Between rounding and the way Wurm generates these statistics, it might be closer to 98%, giving a chance of three failures in a row a chance more like 0.0008%. Still pretty unlikely, but:
  2. How many times in Wurm have you done many, many tasks in a row? And how many people are doing these tasks? Given the number of players and the thousands upon thousands of actions each of us is doing in the game on a regular basis, it would be unusual for there not to be unlikely events like this. Yeah, flipping a coin heads 15 times in a row is unlikely, but if you have a few hundred people spending all day flipping coins, it's going to happen.
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On 4/24/2019 at 2:06 AM, whereami said:

No, THAT is just bad luck.

Ever failed to make a kindling THREE times in a ROW at 99% chance with a supreme 95QL knife? I have.

 

 

tenor.gif?itemid=3372841

 

I feel your pain bro.... 

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85.89 Jewelrysmithing here... needed a bronze rune of Libila for a pickaxe.  Use bronze lumps + crystal, because Jewelrysmith.

 

Spoiler

[17:02:32] You start to work with the rift crystal on the lump.

[16:57:03] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:57:12] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:57:25] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:57:38] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:57:53] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:58:08] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:58:55] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:59:04] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:59:17] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:59:30] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[16:59:45] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:00:00] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:00:37] You have a moment of inspiration...
[17:00:37] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:00:47] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:00:59] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:01:13] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:01:27] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:01:42] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:01:56] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:02:06] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:02:18] You almost made it, but the rune of Libila is useless.
[17:02:19] You start to work with the rift crystal on the lump.
[17:02:32] You create a crystal rune of Libila.
[17:02:32] You start to work with the rift crystal on the lump.
[17:02:34] You stop creating.

 

Yeah, this doesn't look like the 27% chance that my crafting window tells me.  Just saying.

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can confirm

AKMnNVJ.jpg

 

i had a "30% chance" to make this rune, and it took me 74 tries lol

 

bump

Edited by platinumteef

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I believe there are certain items that are more difficult to create than others. I can't remember from the top of my head what those items are, but i know for a fact that with planks for example, you tend to fail a lot less even at low %, compared to some other items (lockpicks?)

I think some items are simply coded to be harder to create than others, with a hidden difficulty modifier, but the % doesn't reflect this.

Edited by atazs

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On 5/18/2019 at 3:08 PM, Wargasm said:

Yeah, this doesn't look like the 27% chance that my crafting window tells me.  Just saying.

 

Chance of this happening are .134%. Or about 1/740 chance.

Not likely...but not *that* unlikely given hundreds of thousands of actions.

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Thing is those %'s are misleading the way it's coded.

 

100 tries at 25% chance means you throw a 4-sided dice each time and hope for a 4.  You MAY get 25 out of 100, or more, or less... and trust me, Murphy's from Panama, I know his laws =P

 

Some games (The Almighty Runescape comes to mind) will set a hard cap on it.  So you're doing your 100x create actions at 25% chance, fail 1 2 3 *hardcap kicks in* 4th is a guaranteed success.  5 6 success, 7 8 fail, 9 success, 10 11 12 fail *hardcap*, 13 success guaranteed by cap.

 

Bribe your local dev today!

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18 minutes ago, Oblivionnreaver said:

89f611eeeabfc529a11072d3ba1f03f0.png

now thats what i call 98% create chance 2019

 

That failed MOI though

F

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It's been like that for as long as I can remember... almost like a horrible test of your patience

 

Back in the day it was truly horrible! Failing to create anything would have some terrible outcomes

"Lumps and weapon heads would turn to scrap that you had to allow to cool before you could remelt them"  

"keel sections would lose weight and would become useless since BSB's did not exist yet"

Sometimes Items would turn out unfinished which would cause stupid problems for example (Unfinished Hammers needing to be Hammered to be completed...)

 

Wurm just loves to waste your time for no real reason (Remember when Rolf wanted to add a dishwashing mechanic to slow down cooking?)

 

 

The only real solutions might be to simply remove creation failing and instead increase the time it takes to create  an item  

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Sample size: 50

Displayed creation chance: 57%

Success rate: 100% (0 Fails)

Probability that the displayed chance is correct, and this is due to random luck: about 1 in 1.6 trillion.

In other words, the chance shown is simply wrong, wrong, wrong.

 

Spoiler

[09:23:43] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:23:44] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:23:44] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:23:44] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:23:44] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:23:44] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:23:47] You create a raw coconut.
[09:23:48] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:23:52] You create a raw coconut.
[09:23:52] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:23:55] You create a raw coconut.
[09:23:56] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:00] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:00] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:04] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:04] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:08] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:08] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:12] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:13] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:16] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:18] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:18] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:18] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:18] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:18] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:18] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:18] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:18] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:22] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:22] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:26] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:26] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:30] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:30] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:34] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:34] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:38] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:38] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:42] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:42] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:46] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:46] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:51] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:52] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:52] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:52] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:24:53] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:53] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:53] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:53] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:53] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:24:56] You create a raw coconut.
[09:24:57] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:00] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:00] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:04] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:04] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:08] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:08] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:12] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:12] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:16] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:16] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:20] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:21] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:24] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:26] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:25:26] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:25:26] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:26] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:25:26] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:25:26] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:25:26] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:25:26] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:25:30] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:30] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:34] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:34] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:38] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:39] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:42] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:43] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:47] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:47] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:51] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:51] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:55] You create a raw coconut.
[09:25:55] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:25:59] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:02] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:02] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:02] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:02] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:02] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:02] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:02] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:02] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:06] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:06] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:10] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:10] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:14] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:14] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:18] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:18] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:22] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:22] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:26] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:26] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:30] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:30] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:35] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:37] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:37] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:37] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:37] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:37] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:37] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:37] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:37] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:26:41] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:41] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:45] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:45] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:49] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:49] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:53] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:53] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:26:57] You create a raw coconut.
[09:26:58] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:27:02] You create a raw coconut.
[09:27:02] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:27:06] You create a raw coconut.
[09:27:06] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:27:10] You create a raw coconut.
[09:27:15] After you finish creating you will start creating again.
[09:27:15] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:27:20] You create a raw coconut.
[09:27:20] You start to work with the cocoa on the hazelnuts.
[09:27:24] You create a raw coconut.

 

Mind-boggling that this still hasn't been fixed. The actual creation chances must be dead simple to derive from the code since they determine the output. Either show them accurately, or remove displayed chances altogether. Why have the interface literally lie to the players?

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Cooking related chances have always been 100% implicitly, I think the % here are only shown as an indicator for the difficulty. This is also kind of wogic-y and only makes sense if you're aware of the "50% sweet spot" for skilling, making the creation chance display rather arbitrary and intransparent, for new and old players alike.

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On 4/30/2019 at 5:58 PM, Ostentatio said:

I find it hard to believe this isn't attributable to cognitive bias.

 

For example:

 

If it's truly 99%, then the probability of three failures in a row is 0.0001%, or literally one in a million. That seems extremely unlikely; however:

  1. Between rounding and the way Wurm generates these statistics, it might be closer to 98%, giving a chance of three failures in a row a chance more like 0.0008%. Still pretty unlikely, but:
  2. How many times in Wurm have you done many, many tasks in a row? And how many people are doing these tasks? Given the number of players and the thousands upon thousands of actions each of us is doing in the game on a regular basis, it would be unusual for there not to be unlikely events like this. Yeah, flipping a coin heads 15 times in a row is unlikely, but if you have a few hundred people spending all day flipping coins, it's going to happen.

Math's fun but what happens isn't, could math help improve the gamer's playing experience than?

At least.. if you see one thing.. you expect that... not rounding in mind and deep math wu-dumped formulas and rounding recalculations to get to the truth...

 

If you see 10% chance to make a rune.. you expect 1 in 10 tries to make a rune.. realistically you expect 1 in 20-30 tries.. in reality.. rng could have you trying all day until you run out of rift materials without a rune created(by chance)

Recently had a 13% chance for something.. at some point made 3 or 4 in a row with 13% chance creation.. mostly it was uneventful waiting for X seconds between tries and fails as expected.

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