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Ostentatio

Wurm skillcheck/skill gain simulator. Wow! Neato!

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As some of you know, there has been a Wurm Online skill gain/skill check simulator available online for a while now, albeit not in a form that is easily shared.

 

This tool allows you to simulate various skill-related statistics, such as your chance to gain skill by mining a certain ore with a certain skill and pickaxe, QL of ore, how likely you are to be able to tame a certain creature, and so forth.

 

Given how useful it is, and since people have been talking lately about wanting something like this, I've decided to host it on my own server in order to make it available to everyone.

 

You can find it here: https://www.dreamsleeve.org/wurm/grinder/

 

Note: I did not create this tool, and may not be able to implement new features or updates, depending on my own poor knowledge of JavaScript. @asdfdeveloped the tool, and consented to me making it more widely available to the public; all credit for its existence should be directed toward him. If anyone has questions on how to use it, or what something means, feel free to ask in this thread! And if it goes down for some reason, please PM me or let me know however you can, because that means something is definitely wrong.

 

This is not an official tool. It was created by a player, for other players, and is not affiliated with or officially endorsed by Wurm Online, Code Club AB, or related parties. I am sharing it because I find it useful as a player, but I can in no way vouch for it being 100% accurate, or supported in any official capacity.

 

Basic usage notes:

  • Simulation kind selects the type of action you are simulating.
    • Fixed bonus (channeling) is the most generic type of simulation, simulating a basic skill roll with a given Difficulty, Skill, Bonus, and Tool QL (see below), so it can be useful as a sort of generic skill roll simulation. Pretty much every skill check involves these numbers, but the other simulation types calculate them for you.
  • Iteration count for the simulation selects how many times the code will simulate the task, in order to generate statistics. The default is 25,000, which should generally be more than enough to create a good sample.
  • Rounding changes rounding behavior, either of the simulation or the displayed numbers. I'm not really sure what the implications of this are, so I suggest leaving it at the default, which is "Nearest".
  • Difficulty is the difficulty of the action, which is necessary to input for some simulation types. For the purpose of Channeling, this is the difficulty of the spell. For Fileting, this is the damage the meat item has.
  • Bonus is the bonus applied to the skill check. Often you won't need this, or won't know it.
    • 70 is the maximum value; any larger bonus is capped at this number.
    • For Channeling, if your alignment is maxed out and you're in your god's domain, your bonus is likely at or near 70.
  • In the results window:
    • Range is the range of results. For example, "-40 - 98" means that the simulator's lowest result was -40, and the highest was 98.
      • All skill checks in Wurm have a result between -100 and 100. Anything below 0 is a failure, and anything above 0 is a success. Successes below 40 (i.e. 0-40) give skill.
      • The exact value of negative results usually doesn't matter much, but for Channeling, this is important as it relates to your chance to shatter or damage the item when enchanting.
    • Skillgain is the percentage of results that gave skill. For example, "28.07%" means that roughly 28.07% of actions would give you skill in the skill being simulated (note: parent skills and characteristics might not have the same chance).
    • 0+ is the percentage of results with a value of 0 or greater; for skill rolls, this equates to a successful skill check.
    • 90+ is the percentage of results with a value of 90 or greater.
    • Mean is the mean (i.e. average) of all results.For example, with a mean of 57.09, you would expect your average in-game result to be 57.09. 
    • The best skillgain percentage possible is somewhere around 52.5%, with a mean of 20.
Edited by Ostentatio
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I know I said I wouldn't be able to make alterations to this, but I did fix a minor bug just now:

  • Selecting "Adolescent" in the taming simulation would not update the dropdown list properly; the internal value would be changed properly, but the field would list "Young" instead. This is fixed.
Edited by Ostentatio

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Cool. But what about grinding one's Mind Logic via Mining? Is there something for that?

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On 7/4/2018 at 3:48 PM, Benie said:

Cool. But what about grinding one's Mind Logic via Mining? Is there something for that?

 

You can, more or less, use the standard "fixed bonus" simulation for that.

 

For characteristics, and I believe parent skills in general, as far as I know it uses the same difficulty but not the tool or any other bonuses. For instance, if you're mining rock (2 difficulty), and want to know how likely you are to get Mind Logic gains, plug your Mind Logic as the skill level into the "Fixed Bonus" simulation, with a difficulty of 2 and no tool or bonus.

 

For this reason, characteristics are often best trained using low-difficulty actions. Surface-mining (difficulty 1 or 2, I believe?) was great for my body strength, body stamina, and mind logic, for example. So if you want to train mining skill, using a low-QL pick with iron will get you better characteristics than a high-QL pick with something like marble.

Edited by Ostentatio

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Sexy.. is there a GIT repo for the source code?

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This is awesome!

 

Edit* didn’t actually read the whole post originally lol. My bad 

Edited by Xor

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16 hours ago, jackjones said:

Sexy.. is there a GIT repo for the source code?

 

It's just javascript files (well, and HTML/CSS for the page itself), so you should be able to nab them for yourself. It's what I did!

Edited by Ostentatio

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Update!

 

Added sandstone and rock salt to the mining tools, since it was easier than I thought.

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Thanks for posting this!

Edited by Wiolo

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Thank you for hosting this!

 

One question: how exactly is the bonus figure calculated for channelling? I'm wondering what it might be for a priest with maxed alignment, but not in god's domain and wearing plate armour, for example.

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I just want to bump this because... People should know how good this is.

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On 9/26/2018 at 11:38 PM, Wiolo said:

This is amazing, and you are amazing for making this. Thank you.

 

Thank you, but as stated in the OP, I did not make this tool! I've made some minor changes as noted in this thread, and host it on my webserver with the permission of @asdf, who was its original developer.

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I see. I must've not read it properly back then. Message quoted has been edited.

Edited by Wiolo
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v59 update!

 

I'm making a liar out of myself again and adding things to this, since it turned out to be less difficult than I thought.

 

I've added sheep-shearing to the skill grinder! Difficulty is based on sheep/ram age and your current skill, with difficulty being lower for younger sheep/rams. It goes by age category, not numerical age, so every "mature" sheep is just as difficult as any other "mature" sheep.

 

 

At this point, if there are other actions/tasks in-game people would like to see added, please post them here and I'll see whether or not it would make sense to add them, or if I'm even able to.

Edited by Ostentatio
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v60g update!

 

Minor update: Benediction checkbox added for Channeling. Thanks to asdf for this one.

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Bug report: When checking meditation question difficulty (on special tile, off cooldown), the difficulty goes wonky at path levels higher than 11. This is easy to see by running the simulation at level 11, and then at level 12. There's a big jump downward in difficulty.

 

Edit: It is related to the meditating skill requirement for the path level. If you enter 90.01 skill, then the difficulty is correct. It seems that exactly 90 skill does not satisfy the path level requirement. But if that is true, then the path level is off by 1 (90+ skill is needed for level 13, not 12).

Edited by LaRue

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Don't suppose it'd be possible to add 10% create ql bonus, 10% ql rune and 10% skill bonus runes to the calculator?

Edited by Oblivionnreaver
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Please forgive my ignorance. How does this work exactly. Not sure how it would know who my character is. 

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I believe we can use this to calculate creation chance.

* use creation simulation

* fill in all the applicable fields, difficulties will likely need to come from WU

* The 0+ outcome stat needs to be 6% or more.

 

Looking in WU code Skill.calculateChances() we can see how Wurm derives the creation chances we see in game. It does a simulation of 30k rollGaussian for every combination skill and difficulty and counts the frequency of > 0 outcomes. Wurm runs this once at server reboot and keep the values in memory.

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Do we really need to run simulation for creation chance? Can't we make a formula using what we know about this?

1. The normal distribution's range is -100 to 100.  Note it does get deformed as the mean approaches either extremity. I'm not sure it matter a lot to just assume it doesn't get deformed.

2. The mean is 20 when modified skill is 20 greater then difficulty. modified skill calculations vary. One common variation is average of skill and tool ql. The chain jacket would be average of chain armor smithing skill and large anvil ql. I'd say have the formula use modified skill and leave it up to the user to figure it out.

3. Given those to above what value can we assume would be at the 6% right tail point? My stats skills aren't great to figure this out.

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Who is "we" in this situation, is it you? Go ahead and write a closed-form equation for all skill gain, please.

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Wow, that's very combative. You said "can we make a formula", and I was asking if you could do that because it would be a very useful thing. I run Niarja and would have a lot of use for it. I would legitimately like you to come up with an equation, it's a shame you lack the skills but I have no idea why you're being so aggressive.

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@ChakronI thought you where be a smart aleck (inferring it can't be done yet still asking me to do it) or just plain sarcasm. Anyway, I edited my post as I can't delete.

 

 

A single non-simulated equation can be made. If modified skill ( for example the average of mining skill and pickaxe ql) is supplied then it becomes a simple input of that value and difficulty to move the distribution around. We know the distribution's shape/size so we don't need to simulate it. But and its a big one, there is normal curve deformation that happens as the mean approach either -100 or 100. The deformation might make normal curve stats math inaccurate. I'll see about reviewing stats (as all that stuff is on the internet for free) so I can try to make the equation.

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