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Neville

The Wurm Online Market Overall

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17 hours ago, Angelklaine said:

Contrary to popular belief, Plate is not dead. Chaos is. PAS was closely tied to Chaos. No one bought plate before for freedom, because once it looses quality, finding someone to imp it back up with steel was a nightmare. Steel is expensive and chain or leather worked fine, so people used that instead. Now there is in fact a market since Iron is viable on Freedom as much as Chain is.

 

I find it abhorrent that people think they have a right to demand or stop changes to the game in a way that helps their "business". The fact that you make money out of the game should have zero weight in the development decisions staff make. This game is not for you to make money, its for me to have fun. The fact people are allowed to cash out on their time its just a bonus and not a right.

 

Plate, along with the many other new skills that "ruined" people's business have been an improvement. A big one. When people complain about a change, talk to me about how it imbalances pvp, or how it gives a smaller number of players an advantage over the whole. Or how it damaged your favorite in game activity. Don't talk to me about how it ruins your bottom line.

 

Those who leveled metallurgy and platesmithing with the intention of using it have seen no change, myself included. In fact, I have mostly switched to Iron Plate since its so much easier now to imp. But then again I have PAS to imp my own stuff and help my friends.

 

Maybe the problem is not the changes, but the use you give to your skills.

 

I believe I made a mistake with how I worded the original thread yesterday. People focused too much on the gripe that I had (past tense) that I no longer have now after reading people's comments. I will say, it was less about making money for me than for the skill to feel useful. In my case, the demand for plate is next to nothing compared to last year. It could be a symptom of many factors. Regardless, I'm adapting to other markets like everyone else.

I clicked "like" on all the comments that I feel are speaking to what I want this thread to be about. I don't want it to just focus on PAS. I think you made a very good point in your comment here about Chaos being dead. Like you, I don't want this thread to be about making silver in the game for the purpose of selling it for real currency. That's not the point of the thread. I think I've made that clearer now in my revised post.

 

Overall, I hope to see more comments in this thread about things... So far the discussion is looking pretty healthy, despite my original PAS gripe that became a sort of distraction from what I really wanted this to be about. That's fixed now.

Edited by Neville
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I've been making and selling bulk for almost 5 years, it's what i like to roleplay as, a merchant. Bulk has a reliability to it thats comforting (i was actually pretty well known before one of my sanity breaks took me off the market for like 6 months) i actually like the fact that supply and demand is so important to the market, like you'll get people selling things cheap to secure a sale, or like me, discounts for repeat customers for generic things like bricks. Do it long enough and you can actually predict the ebb and flow of the market, like how bulk sales drop at christmas but rare sales increase as people buy gifts for friends etc

 

Also just to chip in, the fact in game coin can be used to purchase prem is beautiful, making bulk to buy my prem is one of the driving forces that keeps me playing

 

I know selling bulk is time consuming and far from glamorous or profitable but because i have a fair bit of spare time and 0 creative flair, its nice providing mats for people to make amazing deeds, i feel like i helped in a small way, by saving them time and not grinding it themselves, they dont burn out and can then make huge castles with amazing designs, or decorate things creatively (like using coffers turned around to make a bar)

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We live on a planet where most of the population lives on third world countries. For example if you live in Thailand, you got to have wealth to buy premium and coins from wurm shop. Less is more, think about it.

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16 hours ago, Wargasm said:

 

With new players comes new sellers.  Still 50 sellers per 1 buyer.  

 

No that is false, more players mean a busier market, prices go up, yes you get more sellers but in turn those sellers are earning more and can buy things themselves. The biggest driver for the market is a healthy population in the game.

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19 hours ago, Mclavin said:

Plate, weapons etc need to have damage with use lowered but no repair option. only way

 

The entire game is built around the improving system, don't see how your idea would work at all. ---> lif that way

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33 minutes ago, JakeRivers said:

 

No that is false, more players mean a busier market, prices go up, yes you get more sellers but in turn those sellers are earning more and can buy things themselves. The biggest driver for the market is a healthy population in the game.

 

I agree. I suspect, however, that in its current state, Freedom has reached its maximum pop. In order to attract a significant number of new players, Freedom needs to change fundamentally, but those very changes will inherently be disruptive of the economy.

 

In short, I think these are the options:

 

- Stay the same, with minor changes (wood colors, animal crates, etc.), and watch the pop stay stagnant, with the slowly deteriorating economy as everyone continues to get more skill;

- Change to attract new players, but disrupt the economy, and devalue the effort of older players.

 

Are there any other options? Could there really be that many people left in the world who would want to play Freedom as it is now, and have the means to do so, but just haven't heard of it?

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I don't get where this false dichotomy of "game play" vs "markets" where you have to sacrifice one for the other. As others have said, the market, exchanges, and player interactions is one of the biggest reasons play. At least for me. And not just for money. It's helping my friends and alliancemates with stuff.

Saying "game changes" is always more important than keeping the player-based economy alive is sacrificing the longevity of the game for short term gratification.

Each change should be weighed for all its benefits and harms. Ignoring how a change affects the economy will lead to disaster. Sometimes game changes will negatively affect the economy, but their benefits outweigh their drawbacks, so the change should go ahead. Likewise, a change may have some small benefit to the game but would massively hurt the player-based economy, and should not be implemented.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

I do think that account selling and account sharing does hurt the economy. Certainly some people would take their ball and go home if these were outlawed. We're already in a pretty precarious position population wise, though. It's a scary jump. I don't know when would be a good time to take this leap.

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27 minutes ago, Hailene said:

I don't get where this false dichotomy of "game play" vs "markets" where you have to sacrifice one for the other. As others have said, the market, exchanges, and player interactions is one of the biggest reasons play. At least for me. And not just for money. It's helping my friends and alliancemates with stuff.

 

The game isn't attracting new players. In its current state, it's reasonable to conclude that everyone who would want to play Wurm is already doing so. Attracting significant amounts of new, long-term players would thus require significant gameplay changes, changes which would be very likely to disrupt the economy.

 

27 minutes ago, Hailene said:

Saying "game changes" is always more important than keeping the player-based economy alive is sacrificing the longevity of the game for short term gratification.

 

Without an influx of new people, there will eventually be no one left to buy anything. Keeping the current economy going at the expense of attracting new people is sacrificing the longevity of the game for short term gratification.

 

27 minutes ago, Hailene said:

Each change should be weighed for all its benefits and harms. Ignoring how a change affects the economy will lead to disaster. Sometimes game changes will negatively affect the economy, but their benefits outweigh their drawbacks, so the change should go ahead. Likewise, a change may have some small benefit to the game but would massively hurt the player-based economy, and should not be implemented.

 

The developers need to decide if they want to cater to the existing Freedom population (and keep the economy as stable as possible) or attract new players (and disrupt the economy). I believe that divide could actually occur on Freedom/Epic lines, however, such that Epic becomes the place for big changes to attract new players, and Freedom remains its conservative self.

 

27 minutes ago, Hailene said:

I do think that account selling and account sharing does hurt the economy. Certainly some people would take their ball and go home if these were outlawed. We're already in a pretty precarious position population wise, though. It's a scary jump. I don't know when would be a good time to take this leap.

 

People helping others for free hurts the economy. Sure, some people would leave if folks stopped helping out, and it would be a scary move. I don't know when would be a good time to take this leap... :P

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Actually it's not account selling, that is the problem, the problem is deeper. The number of character sales is so small, when we look at total number of players(even In current bad state of affairs) Problem is the high output potential of high level characters and low demand.. If we look at niarja, basically top 10 players could meet the needs of whole freedom cluster. But we don't have only those 10 people, we have more, who all want to be producers, but not consumers. Worse part is, they can avoid being consumers. Even new players can do so, in every alliance there is a crafter who makes stuff for free for alliance mates. So in reality we have in wurm all those bubbles(called alliances) of natural economy, where favor is being paid with favor etc. BUT, those bubbles have been cut away from the clusters of economy as consumers, they still (want to) participate as producers.

 

Of course all that said, argument has been made here, that trading is still happening and people make money. Of course, but if we take one constant, which has stayed the same over the years: 10s for month premium. How many hours one has to put into wurm to earn premium money now and how much time they had to spend several years ago. For example when I started playing Wurm, a knarr sold for 25s, that was 2.5 months prem time in one knarr, right now you cant even earn one month. Raw material market has been totally wiped out thanks to imbues/runes. Some things have changed less of course, but the trend is, that you get less and less goods for 1hour of your time.


And when we look back to the changes of recent years, pretty much all has only increased the output of producers and decreased the demand of consumers. So in essence the devs have just dug the hole deeper and deeper while beating drums, when they add new skins and do cosmetic changes.

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Whenever change is proposed the natural answer seems to be "leave Freedom as it is and change Epic" or in other words "leave things for me as they are as they work for me". Changing Epic will not attract (many) new players though if you look at the demographics of sandboxes (PvE is where most potential usually is).

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For example when I started playing Wurm, a knarr sold for 25s, that was 2.5 months prem time in one knarr, right now you cant even earn one month. 

 

Don't forgot that Code Club increased Silver Euro cost by a lot 3+ years ago, and nerfed Traders 

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5 hours ago, enoofu said:

 

Don't forgot that Code Club increased Silver Euro cost by a lot 3+ years ago, and nerfed Traders 

 

Not only silver but premium cost as well.

 

To be frank, the cost per month is absurd for what the game is; They are charging nearly as much as most AAA developers do. 

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Wurm at times is like playing a theme park style game " Roller coaster tycoon etc. " get as money out of the pockets of visitors as possible.

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8 hours ago, Eltaran said:

Whenever change is proposed the natural answer seems to be "leave Freedom as it is and change Epic" or in other words "leave things for me as they are as they work for me". Changing Epic will not attract (many) new players though if you look at the demographics of sandboxes (PvE is where most potential usually is).

 

Hey, I solely play Epic. :) And I see potential to attract new players via big changes to Epic, such as relatively-short term Seris, Jackal, and/or Valrei moon scenarios (six months?) where everyone's skills start from scratch on the moon, and each moon island may have radically different rules, depending on the moon.

 

Have new monsters, tiles, moonmetal veins, etc. and everyone gets to take home something nice to Epic at the end. I bet that would attract folks. :)

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Well lets look at a few simple facts:

1.  The majority of markets revolve around players exchanging in game currency for items
2.  Old players are more likely to buy currency (with real cash) than new players
3.  So any market that revolves around new players paying older players for items is already in a bad position due to wurm's real currency market

This simple set of observations explains why the bulk market (new players selling to old players) is much more successful than the item market (old players selling to new players).  It also shows a worrying situation where most money needs to flow from new players to old players, a situation that just isn't possible.  A solution to this would be to add in rare components that are useful to higher level players (but have no use to lower level players) that players of all levels can find through daily grind and/or adventuring.

This then allows money to flow again (new players sell to older players to earn silver, to buy tools from older players, who use that revenue to buy more components etc).
 

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Sod inflation. What is really needed are ways to earn money like on some WU-Servers - and if it is only NPCs buying nails and planks for some iron. The only people that should be opposed are those earning real money through Wurm and I don't think that should prevent change...

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There are two ways to get rich in Wurm.   Earn more or want less.   

 

In other words, you people are worried way too much about in-game currency.

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A working economy with working supply and demand and interdependency makes for good content in a MMO. And trade usualy involves currency. At least it makes things easier :P

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14 hours ago, Eltaran said:

Sod inflation. What is really needed are ways to earn money like on some WU-Servers - and if it is only NPCs buying nails and planks for some iron. The only people that should be opposed are those earning real money through Wurm and I don't think that should prevent change...

No it is not needed. WU servers don't have to worry about peoples premium and deed costs are just cosmetic.

Point is, real cash silver and 10s premium is cornerstone of Wurms freemium model. Giving possibility to create money from thin air(don't mix it here with current traders or other ways to get coins, which doesn't create money, but just circulate existing money) will be the same as allowing printing money IRL.

And no, I don't earn real money through Wurm.

Edited by rixk

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1 hour ago, rixk said:

No it is not needed. WU servers don't have to worry about peoples premium and deed costs are just cosmetic.

Point is, real cash silver and 10s premium is cornerstone of Wurms freemium model. Giving possibility to create money from thin air(don't mix it here with current traders or other ways to get coins, which doesn't create money, but just circulate existing money) will be the same as allowing printing money IRL.

And no, I don't earn real money through Wurm.

 

I dunno. I think not being able to pay Premium with silver and instead lowering Premium rates could (stress on could) be a good thing. The problem with the mix of RL currency and IG silver is not deed upkeep but Premium time after all... the outrage of some of the established players would be epic though as it works well for them. Wurm Online is a business though and personally I think the business modell will have to change in the long run as you do *need* fresh blood.

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1 hour ago, Eltaran said:

 

I dunno. I think not being able to pay Premium with silver and instead lowering Premium rates could (stress on could) be a good thing. The problem with the mix of RL currency and IG silver is not deed upkeep but Premium time after all... the outrage of some of the established players would be epic though as it works well for them. Wurm Online is a business though and personally I think the business modell will have to change in the long run as you do *need* fresh blood.

Let me explain it this way. Currently Code Club is only entity creating silver. Every silver you see in game, is backed by 1.6 euros. It means for every silver available in game Code Club has received 1.6euros(depending on package you purchase, in general it is the cost). It doesn't matter, whether that silver has changed hands in game or not, Code Club has received 1.6 euros for it. BUT in game the real value of silver comes from the services which you can purchase from Code Club with that silver. It is guaranteed, that for one silver you get X amount of services from Code Club.. this is guaranteed by Code Club for players. Second part, which is important for Code Club, is the fact, that as they are only ones, who can create silver, they can be certain, that when players buy services from them for silver, Code Club has already been paid. This is NOT Code Club giving away services for free. If I pay for premium with silver, it is simply someone else paying for me. From Code Clubs perspective it doesn't matter, if one person buys 2 premiums, or two persons buy one premium each. Outcome is the same.

 

EDIT: Technically silver is like prepaid phone cards. You buy the card, when you give it to your friend, it means your friend can call for free, but that doesn't mean the phone company is giving your friend free service.

 

Edited by rixk

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16 hours ago, Eltaran said:

 

I dunno. I think not being able to pay Premium with silver and instead lowering Premium rates could (stress on could) be a good thing. 

You'd just sell silver for rl money then buy prem with that, or just not prem. Net loss all around.

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6 hours ago, Oblivionnreaver said:

You'd just sell silver for rl money then buy prem with that, or just not prem. Net loss all around.

 

I disagree that it is a net loss all around.

I always sell my in game silver and buy Premium with RL money. The reason I do that is to ensure that CC get some RL money out of my subs.

This enable them to pay for their staff and improve the game. I see that as a win not a loss. Sure it does not help the economy but it helps

the game overall. More money for CC the more staff they can afford and the better they can look after the game as a whole. Maybe even have time

to come up with solutions like a terrible economy.

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