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Wurmhole

$400k revenue and growing

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According to Steam Spy, 14000 +/- owners now.  Second week wasn't as fast growing as week one, but still very respectable.  If this two week pace continues, that pushes revenue past $10mil.  Code club probably retains half, after steam and their distribution partner take their cuts.  I think they have salaries covered for the dev team now.  Time to get that new graphics engine released :)


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Well now... they have to share with Steam and that other company also, but it sure looks good!


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14k x $25 350k  long way from 10 mill...lol.


 


Check the growth in about 2-3 months then you'll get an idea of whats happening.

Edited by Uberknot

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According to Steam Spy, 14000 +/- owners now.  Second week wasn't as fast growing as week one, but still very respectable.  If this two week pace continues, that pushes revenue past $10mil.  Code club probably retains half, after steam and their distribution partner take their cuts.  I think they have salaries covered for the dev team now.  Time to get that new graphics engine released :)

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To sell for $10 million dollars it takes around 333 333 buyers.


How quick does OP think that can happen?


 


I estimate that the current sales after swedish taxes etc can pay one developer, max two, for a year.


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I'm really not that bad at math ;)


14000 buyers in 2 weeks.


2 weeks x 26 = 52 weeks in a year.


14000 x 26 = 364000


364000 x $28 = $10 mil.


 


Naturally there was an initial surge of existing WO players, buying WU to try it.  Now we have far more buyers/players than our WO base, so real growth is happening.  Sure, it is a BIG "if" to project this growth, but "if" people really enjoy the game, then just making it accessable via Steam and doing a bit of marketing, will make this thing grow even faster than we have seen so far.  If people hate it, then sales will trickle off to a minimal amount.


 


Just think about the numbers of concurrent players.  We have already hit a peak of almost 2k concurrent players.  In WO, we were lucky to pass 1k on a busy weekend, in the last couple years.  That 1k in WO also contained a huge number of alts.  I think it is safe to say that 500 concurrent people is what WO was doing pre-WU launch.  WU hit 4x that number in 2 weeks.


 


ROLF and team are celebrating, as should us players.  Well, celebrating and marketing.  Spend $$$ now on marketing for the real payoff.


 


We really have to think of WU as the rebirth of Wurm and Code Club.  THis time around, money MUST be aggressively spent on marketing to get the user base up and self sustaining.  Word of mouth is awesome... if you have enough mouths to spread the good words.  We don't have enough.  Thus an absolute need to spend on marketing.

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Can someone link me to this new graphics engine keep mentioning? Or pm me it, which ever.

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Can someone link me to this new graphics engine keep mentioning? Or pm me it, which ever.

I have been hearing hushed rumors of a Unity version....but its just that .... rumors. Hopefully they are looking at something like that.

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@Wurmhole 


 


the steam attention span rarely exceeds a month, that would be very rare that initial purchase rate sustains for a year.  Rather sales usually sharply drop, especially this week you will see that since Fallout 4 is out so there goes much of your openworld sandboxy audience for the next few months.  After that the increased presence on twitch and youtube should slowly ramp back up as people find the game as long as reviews stay mostly positive.


 


If the game recaptures the 95k players that ever quit Wurm it will be a success even if no new players are gained.  But assuming 50% takehome that is barely over a million not ten mil.


Edited by yarnevk

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Can someone link me to this new graphics engine keep mentioning? Or pm me it, which ever.

 

WU is using new rendering engine.

 

Believe it was delayed 

 

http://forum.wurmonline.com/index.php?/topic/131677-screenshots-on-steam/

Warlander  [developer] Sep 23 @ 4:44pm 

This will mostly optimize rendering even more, while allowing some new shiny things and getting rid of old problems of previous renderer.

 

http://steamcommunity.com/app/366220/discussions/0/517142892050122494/

Edited by enoofu
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Well i am not sure how steamspy works but it dropped down a lot and now it has climbed back up again. The online count at one time rate seems down still but the game sales are still growing according to steamspy.com even after the initial refunds if that was the cause of the recent slump they have listed. 


http://steamspy.com/app/366220


Edited by Kegan

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Well i am not sure how steamspy works but it dropped down a lot and now it has climbed back up again. The online count at one time rate seems down still but the game sales are still growing according to steamspy.com even after the initial refunds if that was the cause of the recent slump they have listed. 

http://steamspy.com/app/366220

Edited by Uberknot
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It is to be expected that steam will lower the game price at some point, wouldn't they?


 


Christmas sales.


Edited by www

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About 15 000 owners of WU at 25.11. If that is good or bad I don't know. It may not have been good enough because the first price cut - 10% - was introduced yesterday or so.

 

edit: There seems to be  a clear downward trend in numbers of players http://steamcharts.com/app/366220  I would expect this game to be sold rather soon at 90% discount.

Edited by www
additional information

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I doubt it.  The sales ramp up has sure leveled out a bit, but in 2.5 weeks, "owners" are up by 25% (Steam Spy data - unconfirmed) and for a 25% growth in that short period of time, after the initial hype sales have died down is a very good sign.  If there was a pattern of decreasing ownership, yes, the price would have to take a massive cut.

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On 11/5/2015 at 2:01 PM, Wurmhole said:

I'm really not that bad at math ;)

 

14000 buyers in 2 weeks.

 

 

2 weeks x 26 = 52 weeks in a year.

 

 

14000 x 26 = 364000

 

 

364000 x $28 = $10 mil.

 

 

 

 

 

Naturally there was an initial surge of existing WO players, buying WU to try it.  Now we have far more buyers/players than our WO base, so real growth is happening.  Sure, it is a BIG "if" to project this growth, but "if" people really enjoy the game, then just making it accessable via Steam and doing a bit of marketing, will make this thing grow even faster than we have seen so far.  If people hate it, then sales will trickle off to a minimal amount.

 

 

 

 

 

Just think about the numbers of concurrent players.  We have already hit a peak of almost 2k concurrent players.  In WO, we were lucky to pass 1k on a busy weekend, in the last couple years.  That 1k in WO also contained a huge number of alts.  I think it is safe to say that 500 concurrent people is what WO was doing pre-WU launch.  WU hit 4x that number in 2 weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

ROLF and team are celebrating, as should us players.  Well, celebrating and marketing.  Spend $$$ now on marketing for the real payoff.

 

 

 

 

 

We really have to think of WU as the rebirth of Wurm and Code Club.  THis time around, money MUST be aggressively spent on marketing to get the user base up and self sustaining.  Word of mouth is awesome... if you have enough mouths to spread the good words.  We don't have enough.  Thus an absolute need to spend on marketing.

 

 

You really Can't be serious????

 

Naturally there was an initial surge???  Like all the people who already existed in the wurm community that had interest in WU?  Plus a few strangers!  

****Wake up!  There is NO WAY that WU maintains even half that number over 52 weeks!****

 

And your post is very misleading and flat Mis-Information.... There is a difference between totally exagerated projected earnings!  Which is what your 10Million Figure is!!!

And what it has Actually made!!!  IE what has really actually been sold to date to create earnings!  Which is no where close to 10Million!  Its not even half a milliion yet and may not even break half a million after 52 weeks!!!

 

So here is a far more accurate projected earnings statement

14000 buyers in  the initial 2 weeks.

 7000 buyers in the following 2 weeks.

 3000 buyers in the next 2 weeks after the first month.

 1000 buyers in the next 2 weeks after that.

 and an average of 500 buyers per 2weeks for the remaining part of the year.

 

14K+7K+3K+1K+5K = 30K

 

2 weeks x 26 = 52 weeks in a year.

 

30,000 x $28 = $840,000 of which half is skimmed off the top to steam and such, wurm will end up with less then half a million at the end of the year!

 

And thats not taking into consideration the 2,000 Lost Monthly Subscription fee's that Wurm would have made if they didn't release this garbage in the first place!  

Thats:

$18 every 2 Months for 12 Months or 18*6 = 108 per person lost a year to WU for 2000 people on average that switched!  

$108 * 2000 = $216,000

 

So the 840,000 - 216,000 it would have made anyway! = 624,000 Of short term cash....

 

In the long term the REAL Cash Cow the Month Subscription side is going to be ill its going to suffer its going to now have an ongoing battle vs its one time fee brother!

And in long term the health 6000 Subs that was growing which is now less then 4000 subs and declining will likely continue to decline where as if WU never existed and the rate of wurm growth had continued we could have been looking at 7000 Subs in a year and a half from now....

 

So Rolf sold his sole for short term gain, will wurm recover?  Thats to be seen!

 

Edited by sulfurblade

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December 19 steamspy reports 16474 owners, and the cumulative growth is very low and stagnates. In my mind the situation calls for really low price, othervise no buyers, no cash flow.

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