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Meridius

Xanadu Area Math (Or in other words, relax)

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For those of you worried there will be some huge land grab on Xanadu when it opens and all the rich old accounts will buy up all the prime coastal real estate, I sat down and worked on the math for all of you Chicken Littles.


 


Listen, Xanadu will be 16x the size of Independence or Chaos, that's huge, so let's put it in perspective.


 


Xanadu's map will be 64x64 kilometers, that's 4,096 square kilometers of map. Judging by the water percentages of Indy and Release, the amount of land to water is about 50%.


 


That leaves 2,048 square kilometers of land to settle on and explore. One tile in Wurm is 4m, so that's 250 tiles per kilometer. 250x250 is 62,500 tiles per square kilometer.


 


Okay, so that's 62,500 times 2,048 sq/km. That gives us a play area of 128,000,000 tiles. Wow.


 


128 million tiles, can you imagine? So if EVERYONE that plays at one time, say 1000 players on at once, plops down a 100x100 deed (10,000 tiles each) that means they would use up 0.78125% of the land on Xanadu. (1,000,000 divided by 128 million).


 


So please, everyone relax. You'll find your place in the sun!


Edited by Meridius
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Listen, Xanadu will be 16x the size of Independence or Chaos, that's huge, so let's put it in perspective.

 

To quote the latest news post on the main site:

 

This server is 4 times the size of Independence, so a bit smaller than we had initially hoped. It’s still 16 times our standard servers which is a huge improvement.

 

By standard they mean deli, exo, cele, epic servers, etc. So its not guaranteed to be 16x independence anymore. :(

 

Honestly though, 4x independence is still massive.

 

EDIT:

Independence itself has a huge amount of unusable land due to those insane mountains it has everywhere. Nobody can terraform them properly in any realistic time-frame.

 

So if Xanadu has smoother terrain, it'll probably work out as a lot more than 4x the usable land of independence, assuming the final version of Xanadu is 4x inde.

Edited by syncaidius
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You should read the topic on this new test:


 


This server is 4 times the size of Independence, so a bit smaller than we had initially hoped. It’s still 16 times our standard servers which is a huge improvement.


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Still to small for my taste.


 


200x200 or go home!  B)


 


 


On a serious note though, even though it has been massively shrunk since then, that is a LOT of land looking at it like that.......


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need to factor in water/mountains also. onceya get dont doing that,  islands not that big :-P


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If 1000 players each deed 10000 tiles, thats actually 10 million, which works out at 7% of that server size.


 


The newer test being 4x independence would be 32x32km. 1024km2. Same 50% land mass so 512km2. Thats 32 million km2.


 


On that scale 1000 players with 100x100 deeds would occupy 31.25% of the land mass. With 200x200 deeds it would be 125%. Maybe that's why some people are worried.


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For those of you worried there will be some huge land grab on Xanadu when it opens and all the rich old accounts will buy up all the prime coastal real estate, I sat down and worked on the math for all of you Chicken Littles.

 

Listen, Xanadu will be 16x the size of Independence or Chaos, that's huge, so let's put it in perspective.

 

Xanadu's map will be 64x64 kilometers, that's 4,096 square kilometers of map. Judging by the water percentages of Indy and Release, the amount of land to water is about 50%.

 

That leaves 2,048 square kilometers of land to settle on and explore. One tile in Wurm is 4m, so that's 250 tiles per kilometer. 250x250 is 62,500 tiles per square kilometer.

 

Okay, so that's 62,500 times 2,048 sq/km. That gives us a play area of 128,000,000 tiles. Wow.

 

128 million tiles, can you imagine? So if EVERYONE that plays at one time, say 1000 players on at once, plops down a 100x100 deed (10,000 tiles each) that means they would use up 0.78125% of the land on Xanadu. (1,000,000 divided by 128 million).

 

So please, everyone relax. You'll find your place in the sun!

256 tiles per km

 

At 4x the size of Inde that's 67,108,864 tiles total in Xanadu.  If you halve that for water tiles you get 33,554,432 land tiles.  That's as many land tiles on Xanadu as Independence and Chaos total tiles combined.

 

If it were 16x the size of Inde, Xanadu would have a total of 268,435,456 tiles; roughly 134,217,728 of those being land tiles.

 

 

On that scale 1000 players with 100x100 deeds would occupy 31.25% of the land mass. With 200x200 deeds it would be 125%. Maybe that's why some people are worried.

It would take roughly 800 players buying up 200x200 tracks of land to take up almost all of the land mass of Xanadu.  If we take an estimation of about how many players would buy that much land, lets say we land somewhere around 200.  Sounds reasonable right?  If 200 players bought 200x200 (40,000 square tiles) of land, that would be approximately 25% of the total land mass of Xanadu.  Are you still worried?

 

For reference, if the devs found a way to keep it at 16x the size of Inde, that means 200 players grabbing up 200x200 square tiles of land would only net 6.25% of the total land mass.

 

Lets pick another figure.  If Xanadu is 10x the size of Inde (right in the middle of what they've chose to test so far 16x-4x), that means it will have 167,778,160 total tiles; roughly 83,886,080 of those being land tiles.  With the same equation from before (200 players and 40,000 sq tiles) that would only take up approximately 10% of the total land tiles of Xanadu.

 

 

  • Two years ago the number of players who had 40,000 sq km of land (highest was 42,411, with next highest being 40,401) was two.  Only two players at that time period had the numbers we are talking about.  The figure might have changed in the last two years, but figuring how the player count hasn't grown massively since then I wouldn't count on it altering very much.

I estimated quite high on the number of players who might take 200x200 tracks of land, simply because it will cost less this time around, however I wouldn't expect the figures from two years ago to increase by 100%.  In the old rates that would be 800s(8g).  With the new rates that would cost 400s(4g).  That's 640 euro, or $880.00.  For reference that's 80s80c20i per 28 days in upkeep.

Lets look at the size comparisons one more time for a summary.  These numbers are based off 200 players buying 200x200 deed tiles.

  1. Xanadu at 4x the size of Independence = 67,108,864 total tiles.  33,554,432 land tiles.  At 200 players buying 40,000 sq tiles of land that equals 23.8% of the total land mass.

Xanadu at 10x the size of Independence = 167,778,160 total tiles.  83,886,080 land tiles.  At 200 players buying 40,000 sq tiles of land that equals 9.5% of the total land mass.

Xanadu at 16x the size of Independence = 268,435,456 total tiles.  134,217,728 land tiles.  At 200 players buying 40,000 sq tiles of land that equals 5.9% of the total land mass.

The total monetary costs for all these figures are as follows:

  • 800g(128,000 euro or $176,755.00) to purchase the land.

160g(25,600 euro or $35,345.00) every 28 days to upkeep the land.

 

For those of you that have been patient in reading this, I'll offer you another set of the figures based on a more serious down-to-earth estimation of the player consumption of land.  These numbers are based off of 40 players buying 200x200 deed tiles.

  1. Xanadu at 4x the size of Independence = 67,108,864 total tiles.  33,554,432 land tiles.  At 40 players buying 40,000 sq tiles of land that equals 4.7% of the total land mass.

Xanadu at 10x the size of Independence = 167,778,160 total tiles.  83,886,080 land tiles.  At 40 players buying 40,000 sq tiles of land that equals 1.9% of the total land mass.

Xanadu at 16x the size of Independence = 268,435,456 total tiles.  134,217,728 land tiles.  At 40 players buying 40,000 sq tiles of land that equals 1.18% of the total land mass.

The total cost for all these figures are as follows:

  • 160g(25,600 euros or $35,351.00) to purchase the land.

32g(5120 euros or $7069.00) every 28 days to upkeep the land.

 

  In closing I cannot say for certain that only 40 players will buy such chunks of land, and even if 200 players bought this much land, it would still leave thousands upon thousands of sq tiles for each player, estimated up to 1,000 players (and that's only at 4x the size of Inde).  I've used actual figures from the Wurm Online wiki and the shop page to come up with these numbers and conclusions.  I hope this will satisfy the player base and alleviate any worries you may have about the upcoming launch.  Thank you for reading.

Edited by Slickshot
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256 tiles per km

250,  metric is base 10 not base 2

 

And yeah the right answer is closer to 32%.   It really comes down to whether the map has a large amount of coast per square tile.  If it's like Australia then there will be a lot of pressure for the perimeter.   In the end it's plenty big, wurm isn't going to magically double in registrations.

Edited by belthize

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Not that I care, but there are 158 players on Inde right now, and we are approaching primetime apparently. People are already complaining that they can't find a good spot to deed there now, so on a server that is 4x the size of Inde, you would have people complain in the same way if there are more than 600 players on the new server. And you are saying that 1000 players will be no problem?


 


There were 500+ players for the stress test last time, and Rolf said on the live stream that he was hoping for more. That could make it seem that he is hoping for more than 500 players for the landrush. Just saying...


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Not that I care, but there are 158 players on Inde right now, and we are approaching primetime apparently. People are already complaining that they can't find a good spot to deed there now, so on a server that is 4x the size of Inde, you would have people complain in the same way if there are more than 600 players on the new server. And you are saying that 1000 players will be no problem?

 

There were 500+ players for the stress test last time, and Rolf said on the live stream that he was hoping for more. That could make it seem that he is hoping for more than 500 players for the landrush. Just saying...

People complain that they can't find land all the time on every server. 

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People complain that they can't find land all the time on every server. 

 

Which is why they all want to rush in for those good spots as soon as possible, and they probably wouldn't even relax if the server DID end up 16x bigger :)

 

Undeeded land can be found on all servers, but what people consider a good spot is so individual that it can be very limiting.

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250,  metric is base 10 not base 2

 

And yeah the right answer is closer to 32%.   It really comes down to whether the map has a large amount of coast per square tile.  If it's like Australia then there will be a lot of pressure for the perimeter.   In the end it's plenty big, wurm isn't going to magically double in registrations.

Wrong.  Inde is 4096 tiles West to East and 4096 tiles North to South.  So 4096 tiles sq.  If you start on the far West tile and head to the far East tile you end up with 4096 tiles.  That dimension is stated by the developers to be 16km (Inde is 16x16).  Simple math after that:  4096 tiles/16km = 256 tiles per km.  Fixed.

 

EDIT:  Each tile in Wurm is roughly 3.906 m across.  15.257 m sq.

Edited by Slickshot

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Not that I care, but there are 158 players on Inde right now, and we are approaching primetime apparently. People are already complaining that they can't find a good spot to deed there now, so on a server that is 4x the size of Inde, you would have people complain in the same way if there are more than 600 players on the new server. And you are saying that 1000 players will be no problem?

 

There were 500+ players for the stress test last time, and Rolf said on the live stream that he was hoping for more. That could make it seem that he is hoping for more than 500 players for the landrush. Just saying...

 

People cant find a place to settle because they cant be arsed to look. Im a 15 minute boat ride away from FM and can find all kinds of places to settle near me.

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Rolf really needs to make sure there's no more than, say, 10-15% useless mountain areas. Make a few for people who like living on them and for the sake of panoramas/exploration, but no more. No massive mountainous stretching regions.


Edited by Derp
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You need to subtract water and steep mountains, etc from usable land as there will be a lot of land simply not really worth deeding.


 


If you get 70% of the Server that is decent for deeding with a little work you'll be doing ok.


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- As others have said the server is 8192 x 8192 tiles, not 16384 x 16384 tiles like Meridius said.


 


- You have a map that looks like this:http://imgur.com/a/rXLBI with mountains and lakes everywhere. It looked pretty good right around the spawn points, but I assume the devs picked some of the really nice areas for the spawns.


 


- Going from 8km x 8km to 32km x 32km gives you 16 times as much land, but only 4 times as much coast line. Have you tried finding a nice coastal spot on a Freedom server lately? It's going to be four times as bad on Xanadu.


 


- Indy is really big compared to the other freedom servers, but it also has a huge amount of inland coast going through the middle that was (relatively) easy to connect to the ocean. This does not appear to be the case on the Xanadu map. We can hope for an improvement if they change the map for the launch, but it doesn't seem to have been a priority so far.


 


- I sailed most of one side of the server during tonight's test (almost two hours going 11km/h). It looked a lot like Indy - most of the coast was vertical cliff walls that would be impossible to settle on. There were a few bays, but only one of them seemed to go significantly inland. Doesn't sound too bad? Here's some images from the trip: http://imgur.com/a/kT9VL


 


There will be plenty of space to deed after the land rush, but question is how much of it will be attractive to settle on. Or if people instead will resort to terraforming steppe/tundra/desert instead since that's where the remaining attractive land is.


 


I don't think it's necessarily going to be a disaster, but I really hope Rolf will take this into account when settling on the map for launch:


 


Here's my advice when creating the map:


 


- Make sure there as a *lot* of deep bays/fjords extending into the mainland. Lakes that are fairly close to sea also works since players can make canals. Lakes away from the coast are useless in this respect; they just makes matters worse by taking up valuable flat land.


 


- Make sure the majority of the coastline is useful for settling. Wasting 2/3 of the most attractive land by making it tall cliffs is just stupid.


 


- Please consider the ratio between grassland/hills and lakes/mountains for the server. Everyone likes to have some majestic mountains, but not a server looks like a bed of nails (see pictures above).


 


- Take into consideration that players won't hesitate to terraform desert/steppe/tundra if that's where they can find the most suitable land.


 


- Think about how you expect the players to travel. The coast will be far removed from the inland areas so going by sea will be very limited. However making roads will be horrible with all those mountains and lakes. One thing the evolution of MMOs have shown is that huge travel times are not a good way to attract casual players.


 


In my opinion Pristine is a good example of a successful map in these regards (with the exception of the center of the map being tundra/desert/steppe which is completely littered with deeds by now).


 


(edited a bit for clarity)


Edited by DKSprocket
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As already stated above, as much as I like the look of the map with all of the mountains, I don't see this map being that practical. The first Xanadu map we tested on was great. TONS of coastline, had everything. This map I saw areas entirely covered with just rock for no reason whatsoever.


 


The coast on that map WILL get dried up fast given the number of mountains along the coast. I was in a rowboat along the coast most of the time as well and there was not a lot of land to settle where I was rowing.


 


I did however find a large lake near the coast that did have a lot of land to settle.


Edited by Anders

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Just read the numbers people.  Stop getting so worked up over it.  I believe both server tests were either random generated maps, or the same Xanadu just differen't parts of Xanadu from before.  Remember, this server is HUUUGE.  You could have walked from a coastline in one direction as soon as the test started this evening, and still never made it past halfway before it concluded.  Imagine the first server test we did.  That first test ran for about an hour and a half and was 16x the size of Independence.  Walking across that entire server would take many many hours.


 


DKSprocket


- As others have said it's 8192 x 8192, not 16384 x 16384.

 



 


 


Why do you bring this up?  You kinda just came out of no where with it as if you're trying to correct someone?


Edited by Slickshot

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Why do you bring this up?  You kinda just came out of no where with it as if you're trying to correct someone?

 

I was responding to Meridius who started the thread using 64km x 64km as one of his main arguments.

 

I used tile count instead of kilometers since that makes more sense to me, but I have edited my post so it's more clear.

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I was responding to Meridius who started the thread using 64km x 64km as one of his main arguments.

 

I used tile count instead of kilometers since that makes more sense to me, but I have edited my post so it's more clear.

To be fair he issued such numbers after Xanadu was being marketed as 64km x 64km.  Not until a just recently did they decide it would only be 32km x 32km

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